How long till USA sets are in the 70's

topprospectalert · Jan 21, 2010

Noticed a massive drop in price from release, with Harper sales dropping off since the market has been flooded and just about everyone else, with a few exceptions, not breaking the $10 mark. I think sets peaked around $105 and are now down in the high 80's. Wondering how long it will be before they are down in the 70's. There is always a rapid decline in price with the USA stuff before it bounces back (last year got as low as $600 a case...my dumb butt passed up 10 cases at that price) and I would imagine this year to be no different, especially with a pretty weak national team in terms of MLB upside. Trying to figure the best time to jump in and buy but honestly think these things could flirt with the $75 set/$700 case range at some point soon.

NECpilgrims8 · Jan 21, 2010

To be honest Ben, I don't think this set will follow suit from 2009. The talent on the teams, the cranked print runs, and the lack of secondary market interest paints a clear picture.

Besides Harper, you can count the number of legit investments on one hand. This includes the National, 18U, and 16U sets (let's be honest, this 16U set is a bit jumping the gun in terms of investing).

Plus, I'm sure a bunch of these 18U and 16U players will be in future USA sets.

docsilvey · Jan 21, 2010

Historically, the first couple of weeks are always the strongest for USA sales. After tracking sales for several years I noticed several trends. Here's a couple of the pertinent ones:
1. Case prices always drop significantly during the first several weeks with spikes preceding the draft. Last year was an anomaly with the emergence of Strasburg.
2. Sales are highest during the first couple weeks of the set's release and drop off drastically afterwards with most players never getting back to the levels of the initial sales. Of course there are exceptions as players emerge, and typically spikes are seen during the draft period.

theplasticman · Jan 21, 2010

I know I'm sitting on the sidelines. In years past I've bought several cases each year.

andyduke86 · Jan 21, 2010

topprospectalert said:
Noticed a massive drop in price from release, with Harper sales dropping off since the market has been flooded and just about everyone else, with a few exceptions, not breaking the $10 mark. I think sets peaked around $105 and are now down in the high 80's. Wondering how long it will be before they are down in the 70's. There is always a rapid decline in price with the USA stuff before it bounces back (last year got as low as $600 a case...my dumb butt passed up 10 cases at that price) and I would imagine this year to be no different, especially with a pretty weak national team in terms of MLB upside. Trying to figure the best time to jump in and buy but honestly think these things could flirt with the $75 set/$700 case range at some point soon.

This is absolutely not the case. This year's national team didn't have the one or two super hyped guys as in years past, but in terms of overall talent it compares well enough, especially the pitchers.

kentuckyderby · Jan 21, 2010

Ragira, Wolters, Machado, Jameson T, and of course Harper will continue to be solid prices without too big of a drop (actually Harper might be the one with the biggest % drop of that group)

Singles the route to go but those in the know who also busted most likley holding on to some of those guys

Ben,
I would rather gamble with a $400 of usa sets than $400 of Razor Letterman

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