Anyone else ever had this "prospecting" moment?

Messier2 · Jan 27, 2010

A moment where the guy you are trying to build a healthy stash (and hold for the minor league season) on explodes in price (for basically no reason) and you say to: "STOP going up, I'm not done buying/padding my stash yet!" GRRR!

Well, I guess I'm done buying! ::facepalm:: They can all pay the inflated prices!

trevordchi · Jan 27, 2010

When they go up for no reason it's normally because an uneducated buyer is coming in and bidding on everything. They'll probably drop again before they go up for good.

This happened to me with Troy Patton and Hunter Pence.

Messier2 · Jan 27, 2010

trevordchi said:
When they go up for no reason it's normally because an uneducated buyer is coming in and bidding on everything. They'll probably drop again before they go up for good.

This happened to me with Troy Patton and Hunter Pence.

Yeah, it must be. Oh well, I'll wait till things settle back down to levels I'm comfortable buying the player at!

mudflap02 · Jan 27, 2010

If you're prospecting, when the price EXPLODES FOR NO REASON that would be a great time to sell IMO.

Otherwise you are just collecting that player.

pigskincardboard · Jan 27, 2010

mudflap02 said:
If you're prospecting, when the price EXPLODES FOR NO REASON that would be a great time to sell IMO.

Otherwise you are just collecting that player.

There's normally a pretty big difference between what you'd buy at and what you'd sell at.

Let's say Jiovanni Mier:

Great buy at 4 dollars as he's probably got a 30% chance of flying up the baseballamerica ranks to the point where you can sell him at 20 dollars within the year. If his price goes up to 8 dollars, though, it's not worth the 30% chance, but it's also absolutely not worth selling because you're barely making 1 dollar after shipping.

If you're buying anything that costs less than 4 times shipping charges, you've basically got a pretty large window that you have to wait out.

All In Cards · Jan 27, 2010

sure, the one time I tried prospecting it happened to me.

Started to go up so I stopped buying and started selling. In the long run I ended up selling way to early.

sheetskout · Jan 27, 2010

Price doesn't increase for no reason but simply for one reason and one reason only. Demand.

pigskincardboard · Jan 27, 2010

sheetskout said:
Price doesn't increase for no reason but simply for one reason and one reason only. Demand.

One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

EricInCT · Jan 27, 2010

at work here.....who are we talking about?

sheetskout · Jan 27, 2010

pigskincardboard said:
One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

But why did he bid in the first place? Demand.

Bosox3 · Jan 27, 2010

trevordchi said:
an uneducated buyer is coming in and bidding on everything.

why would this person be an Uneducated person? because he or she really wants cards another person wants.

pigskincardboard · Jan 27, 2010

sheetskout said:
pigskincardboard said:

One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

Click to expand...

But why did he bid in the first place? Demand.

But the price has increased and the 'demand' has remained static. The same two people still want the card, one person has just bid one extra dollar.

He could've bid one more dollar for infinite reasons and that's why I'm saying your oversimplification is too broad to be correct.

That's why I'm saying look at the bidding patterns. If a card goes from 1 bidders to 2, that's an increase in demand and the price has to go up. However, the price of an item can go up without extra bidders or an increase in demand.

Buynhisellnlow · Jan 27, 2010

pigskincardboard said:
sheetskout said:

pigskincardboard said:

One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

Click to expand...

But why did he bid in the first place? Demand.

Click to expand...

But the price has increased and the 'demand' has remained static. The same two people still want the card, one person has just bid one extra dollar.

He could've bid one more dollar for infinite reasons and that's why I'm saying your oversimplification is too broad to be correct.

That's why I'm saying look at the bidding patterns. If a card goes from 1 bidders to 2, that's an increase in demand and the price has to go up. However, the price of an item can go up without extra bidders or an increase in demand.

Granted it's been a while since I took Macro Econ or applied Finance in college but what you just described would be an increase in demand. Even just one individual raising the market floor is an increase in demand.

EricInCT · Jan 27, 2010

Buynhisellnlow said:
pigskincardboard said:

sheetskout said:

pigskincardboard said:

One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

Click to expand...

But why did he bid in the first place? Demand.

Click to expand...

But the price has increased and the 'demand' has remained static. The same two people still want the card, one person has just bid one extra dollar.

He could've bid one more dollar for infinite reasons and that's why I'm saying your oversimplification is too broad to be correct.

That's why I'm saying look at the bidding patterns. If a card goes from 1 bidders to 2, that's an increase in demand and the price has to go up. However, the price of an item can go up without extra bidders or an increase in demand.

Click to expand...

Granted it's been a while since I took Macro Econ or applied Finance in college but what you just described would be an increase in demand. Even just one individual raising the market floor is an increase in demand.

I concur.

Was the propect's name divulged?

pigskincardboard · Jan 27, 2010

Buynhisellnlow said:
pigskincardboard said:

sheetskout said:

pigskincardboard said:

One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

Click to expand...

But why did he bid in the first place? Demand.

Click to expand...

But the price has increased and the 'demand' has remained static. The same two people still want the card, one person has just bid one extra dollar.

He could've bid one more dollar for infinite reasons and that's why I'm saying your oversimplification is too broad to be correct.

That's why I'm saying look at the bidding patterns. If a card goes from 1 bidders to 2, that's an increase in demand and the price has to go up. However, the price of an item can go up without extra bidders or an increase in demand.

Click to expand...

Granted it's been a while since I took Macro Econ or applied Finance in college but what you just described would be an increase in demand. Even just one individual raising the market floor is an increase in demand.

Sort of, I guess. You could use the equilibrium and the ebay price floor to a point to argue for an increase in aggregate demand from individual demand. I didn't realize we were bringing our knowledgez. Basically, while it's common practice to accept a difference in Y as the precursor to a "shift" in indv. demand, The problem with these ebay auctions when you end up attempting to graph the inverse func. is that you're going to have an issue with your y-intercept. Buyers are all buying in at different prices, depending, on their situation first and foremost. I guess the simplest way is to simply apply shipping as a tax on the individual, but we are just talking about what? 5 cards?

Honestly, the majority of the stuff having to do with complex auctions -- which, ebay definitely is, has been lost in the attic of my brain. It's also going to be inherently tough to apply our maths to limited card sales.

All The Hype · Jan 27, 2010

Happened to me a couple times. The most annoying part is when you're picking up stuff at dirt cheap prices but then nothing is listed for awhile...and all of a sudden someone throws a big parallel up and it sells for far more than you were buying the same thing for weeks earlier.

Happened to me when I was stashing up on Ryan Strieby. Was buying in real low, then there was a drought when very little of his stuff hit eBay and when a couple things finally went up, I was ready with big snipes to be sure I won them and both items ended up costing me double what they had previously. Needless to say, buying time was over.

Buynhisellnlow · Jan 27, 2010

pigskincardboard said:
Buynhisellnlow said:

pigskincardboard said:

sheetskout said:

pigskincardboard said:

One buyer, whether informed or not, can increase the price 200% with his eyes closed. Demand is far from the only variable involved in short-term price changes. Long-term, sure I'll give you that, but short-term -- it could be any number of things.

Considering that it only takes two buyers to raise a price, it could be as simple as Johnny getting an extra 300 dollars from a lottery ticket. Maybe the seller had a tonne of EEE for sale, and someone who wouldn't spend 5.00 on an item, bid 5.00 because he knows he's saving 2.50 on shipping.

You'd really have to look at the bidding to have an idea of what's going on.

Click to expand...

But why did he bid in the first place? Demand.

Click to expand...

But the price has increased and the 'demand' has remained static. The same two people still want the card, one person has just bid one extra dollar.

He could've bid one more dollar for infinite reasons and that's why I'm saying your oversimplification is too broad to be correct.

That's why I'm saying look at the bidding patterns. If a card goes from 1 bidders to 2, that's an increase in demand and the price has to go up. However, the price of an item can go up without extra bidders or an increase in demand.

Click to expand...

Granted it's been a while since I took Macro Econ or applied Finance in college but what you just described would be an increase in demand. Even just one individual raising the market floor is an increase in demand.

Click to expand...

Sort of, I guess. You could use the equilibrium and the ebay price floor to a point to argue for an increase in aggregate demand from individual demand. I didn't realize we were bringing our knowledgez. Basically, while it's common practice to accept a difference in Y as the precursor to a "shift" in indv. demand, The problem with these ebay auctions when you end up attempting to graph the inverse func. is that you're going to have an issue with your y-intercept. Buyers are all buying in at different prices, depending, on their situation first and foremost. I guess the simplest way is to simply apply shipping as a tax on the individual, but we are just talking about what? 5 cards?

Honestly, the majority of the stuff having to do with complex auctions -- which, ebay definitely is, has been lost in the attic of my brain. It's also going to be inherently tough to apply our maths to limited card sales.

Correct me if I'm wrong but even one actively involved party increases the total aggregate of the demand for that product, for that period in that market, no? As demand isn't based on the number of people wanting a product but rather the total amount of demands of all potential customers. While I do agree there would be complications with quantifying the difference between the previous and current demand, that was not my statement. I merely stated that based on even one individual bidding up prices that, by definition, SheetsKout is correct and the aggregate demand has increased for that snapshot in time.

However, perhaps I am missing something and I'm more than willing to listen if that is the case. It just seems to me that SheetsKout is correct.

pigskincardboard · Jan 27, 2010

This is a headache for me to recall, and my explanation is going to be terrible.

Because we're dealing with a non-standard tax, applied selectively to buyers (i'm going to ignore any and all micro references regarding the buyers themselves and any variety of perceived value) we can't simply take the curves of all buyers to find our curve.

Lets just say two groups -- all demand variables constant:

Group A is willing to spend 6ish dollars plus 3 dollars shipping, for a total of 9 dollars.
Group B is willing to spend 8ish dollars plus 3 dollars shipping for a total of 11 dollars.

Group A member wins an auction at anything over 8 dollars but under 9 dollars with free shipping. Do you see the problem? Demand for the card at 8 to 9 dollars hasn't increased.

I'll post a better explanation, once I read over some stuff. I'm not sure how to apply this, in all honesty.

But back to my original point, I was more upset with the oversimplification of why a price would go up: demand. That's like saying, why are plants green? chlorophyll. It doesn't exactly explain why the price went up, or why plants are green.

Buynhisellnlow · Jan 27, 2010

pigskincardboard said:
This is a headache for me to recall, and my explanation is going to be terrible.

Because we're dealing with a non-standard tax, applied selectively to buyers (i'm going to ignore any and all micro references regarding the buyers themselves and any variety of perceived value) we can't simply take the curves of all buyers to find our curve.

Lets just say two groups -- all demand variables constant:

Group A is willing to spend 6ish dollars plus 3 dollars shipping, for a total of 9 dollars.
Group B is willing to spend 8ish dollars plus 3 dollars shipping for a total of 11 dollars.

Group A member wins an auction at anything over 8 dollars but under 9 dollars with free shipping. Do you see the problem? Demand for the card at 8 to 9 dollars hasn't increased.

I'll post a better explanation, once I read over some stuff. I'm not sure how to apply this, in all honesty.

But back to my original point, I was more upset with the oversimplification of why a price would go up: demand. That's like saying, why are plants green? chlorophyll. It doesn't exactly explain why the price went up, or why plants are green.

That's fair enough - I made an assumption (perhaps incorrectly so) that since they were referencing when a player has a dramatic enough sudden increase to where those prices are no longer within their buy range that the difference was relatively significant compared to the previous prices. In which case, I believe that the Delta would be large enough, that although quantifying the exact change would be difficult (if not actually impossible since I believe you'd actually just determine the likelihood of each Delta and I don't know how you'd get a 100% solution), it would represent an increase in demand since that would more than account for any anomalies with the shipping cost differential.

I also agree that for the purposes of this that "demand" as most think of it hasn't necessarily increased - I just felt that if SheetsKout was stating that total aggregate market demand had risen that he'd be correct.

mudflap02 · Jan 27, 2010

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