2010 Topps Million Card Giveaway By The Numbers

So I was curious for my own knowledge what the chances are of pulling say a 52 Topps card from a redemption and what things are shaping up like so far after first few days of this promotion.

Here is what I came up with as of about 5:30PM EST on Feb 18th.

Let's start right at the top 95,912 cards redeemed so far (9.59%)

The rarest cards so far:
#1 1954 (225 redeemed, 0.23%)
#2 1955 (253 redeemed, 0.26%)
#3 1957 (323 redeemed, 0.34%)

The most common:
1987 (14,441 redeemed, 15.02% - the equivelent of almost 200 sets!).
2005 (10,045 redeemed, 10.47%)
1993 (7,723 redeemed, 8.05%)

Others of interest:
1952 Topps 421 redeemed, 0.44% - Odds, approximately 1:225

By the Decade:
1950s = 3.48%
1960s = 10.16%
1970s = 15.54%
1980s = 36.27%
1990s = 14.94%
2000s = 19.60%

One set I always hated was 1986 Topps. There are surprisingly few of them in this promotion so far at just 682 cards redeemed (0.71%).

One set I always loved was 1971 Topps with the black borders. There are a large # of these (relatively speaking) at 2753 cards (2.9%)

So there you go. I hope someone finds this helpful. If you want the full list by year and decade, feel free to PM me with you email address and I'll send you the excel file I made.

Bill

Very cool and very informative!! Thanks for putting in the time.....

Thanks for the numbers.

Great information!

The percentages of getting a certain year were on another board. Thought it might be helpful.

Based on 54,728 redemptions:

1987: 8332 15.22%
2005: 5769 10.54%
1993: 4277 7.82%
1988: 4270 7.80%
1985: 4213 7.70%
1972: 1642 3.00%
1974: 1584 2.89%
1971: 1531 2.80%
1998: 1208 2.21%
1973: 1044 1.91%
1966: 882 1.61%
1970: 839 1.53%
2001: 818 1.49%
2002: 773 1.41%
1969: 772 1.41%
1965: 715 1.31%
1989: 700 1.28%
1967: 668 1.22%
1961: 664 1.21%
2009: 658 1.20%
2007: 657 1.20%
2006: 639 1.17%
1981: 539 0.98%
1968: 478 0.87%
2000: 467 0.85%
1978: 458 0.84%
1994: 407 0.74%
1953: 405 0.74%
1991: 398 0.73%
1983: 396 0.72%
1992: 394 0.72%
1986: 390 0.71%
1982: 388 0.71%
1984: 387 0.71%
1990: 380 0.69%
1959: 370 0.68%
1977: 365 0.67%
2004: 362 0.66%
1963: 360 0.66%
2003: 356 0.66%
1960: 355 0.66%
1979: 355 0.66%
1980: 349 0.65%
1995: 335 0.61%
2008: 329 0.60%
1976: 325 0.59%
1975: 316 0.58%
1958: 285 0.52%
1964: 279 0.51%
1962: 277 0.51%
1997: 255 0.47%
1999: 236 0.43%
1956: 214 0.39%
1996: 205 0.37%
1957: 203 0.37%
1954: 157 0.29%
1952: 144 0.28%
1955: 144 0.26%

There have been 57 1952's redeemed in the last 15 hours (478 total now). Still no Mantle, or Mays or Pafko.

Cool stats

I'll bet the 86's will be the 87's of series 2

Awesome breakdown; I linked to this thread from my blog. The equivalent of 200 1987 Topps sets, that is crazy.

Could you imagine how many 1952 sets there could be if Topps didn't dump them down the river?

just noticed a niced card that looks to be available, but not pulled yet - 1999 Topps CoSigners Quad Auto #CS20 - Jeter, Arod, Chipper, Rolen.

Philip J. Fry said:

Could you imagine how many 1952 sets there could be if Topps didn't dump them down the river?

Click to expand...

Yeah, but imagine if there were 1,000s of '52 Mantles floating around.

chashawk said:

Philip J. Fry said:

Could you imagine how many 1952 sets there could be if Topps didn't dump them down the river?

Click to expand...

Yeah, but imagine if there were 1,000s of '52 Mantles floating around.

Click to expand...

Oh no doubt. Never said it would be a good thing

Great info guys.

In the past 26 hours, 16,107 cards have been redeemed. That's approximately 1 card every 6 seconds!

chashawk said:

Philip J. Fry said:

Could you imagine how many 1952 sets there could be if Topps didn't dump them down the river?

Click to expand...

Yeah, but imagine if there were 1,000s of '52 Mantles floating around.

Click to expand...

Theres not?

chashawk said:

Philip J. Fry said:

Could you imagine how many 1952 sets there could be if Topps didn't dump them down the river?

Click to expand...

Yeah, but imagine if there were 1,000s of '52 Mantles floating around.

Click to expand...

Thats would be great,it would give casual collectors a chance to own one.

I am updating the original numbers. There have been quite some changes in the odds and what's getting redeemed... for the better for those looking for vintage from the 1970's - odds on hitting a card from that decade have doubled from 15% to 30%. 1973-1975 have drastically jumped in the # redeemed. The 80's are down by 10%. Perhaps it is worth watching the trends more closely as to an indicator of WHEN to redeem the cards! I doubt each redemption card is assigned to a particular Topps card. I really think Topps has it timed as to when they will release certain cards to the public. I asked them in an email, but I doubt they will respond.

As of 12:30PM EST on Feb 23rd:

155,063 cards redeemed (15.51%)

The rarest cards so far:
#1 1954 (269 redeemed, 0.17%)
#2 1955 (299 redeemed, 0.19%)
#3 1957 (375 redeemed, 0.34%)

The most common:
1987 (16,868 redeemed, 10.88% - my bad on the original post - this is 21.29 sets, not 200+!).
1973 (12,573redeemed, 8.11%)
2005 (11,677 redeemed, 7.53%)

Others of interest:
1952 Topps 537 redeemed, 0.34% - Odds, approximately 1:333

By the Decade:
1950s = 3.37%
1960s = 14.65%
1970s = 30.32%
1980s = 26.79%
1990s = 10.81%
2000s = 14.09%

Bill Menard said:

So I was curious for my own knowledge what the chances are of pulling say a 52 Topps card from a redemption and what things are shaping up like so far after first few days of this promotion.

Here is what I came up with as of about 5:30PM EST on Feb 18th.

Let's start right at the top 95,912 cards redeemed so far (9.59%)

The rarest cards so far:
#1 1954 (225 redeemed, 0.23%)
#2 1955 (253 redeemed, 0.26%)
#3 1957 (323 redeemed, 0.34%)

The most common:
1987 (14,441 redeemed, 15.02% - the equivelent of almost 19 sets!).
2005 (10,045 redeemed, 10.47%)
1993 (7,723 redeemed, 8.05%)

Others of interest:
1952 Topps 421 redeemed, 0.44% - Odds, approximately 1:225

By the Decade:
1950s = 3.48%
1960s = 10.16%
1970s = 15.54%
1980s = 36.27%
1990s = 14.94%
2000s = 19.60%

One set I always hated was 1986 Topps. There are surprisingly few of them in this promotion so far at just 682 cards redeemed (0.71%).

One set I always loved was 1971 Topps with the black borders. There are a large # of these (relatively speaking) at 2753 cards (2.9%)

So there you go. I hope someone finds this helpful. If you want the full list by year and decade, feel free to PM me with you email address and I'll send you the excel file I made.

Bill

Click to expand...

Excellent information.

I completely agree. The allocation of unlocked cards appears to be pre determined. I entered 20 consecutive cards yesterday and "unlocked" 18 1973 cards and 2 1975 cards.

I have been following the 1952 cards. By my math there has been one allocated in the last 9000 redemptions. Topps needs to fix this.

Well, I think it is confirmed. Topps has a predetermined order by which they are releasing the cards and your redemption # is not tied to a predetermined card. They are dooling out the 1979s and 1980s right now. Earlier today it was the 1973s and 1975s.

Since my update earlier today, there have been almost 5,000 cards redeemed and no additional 1952, 1954, 1955 or 1957s released. Now the crazy part... there hasn't been a SINGLE 1987 released in the same time period either - so the gig is up. Looks like they gave out a bunch of the real vintage stuff early on to stir interest and have now clamped the door shut on the good stuff for a while!

That 1952 Mantle is just going to go to the guy/gal who happens to be in the right place at the right time and not to the person holding the card with code 8ZMpx!y34J

Anyway, I have 100 of them sitting here and as soon as I see a trend towards the 50's or 60's (assuming there will be one and yes, I know that's a BIG assumption) I'm going to enter them at that time. If I don't see it, they'll find their way back to ebay for what I hope will be some what of a profit.


Oh --- and with all the 1975s they gave out, no Brett, no Yount. There is also no Henderson from 1980 that has been given out either. It seems MOST of the key rookies (if not all) are being held back right now. Wonder when they release the flood gates on the 2000 "PRIZE" cards. Note, there is no indicator of what those cards are either. I asked that in an email as well, but not holding my breath for an answer.

Nice, enjoyed checking this out.