2010 Bowman Case Print Run

Ok, now that we have odds for the Strasburg Red 1/1, that makes it easier.

The Strasburg Red 1/1 Jumbo Odds are 1:214,000, which means jumbo case run is 2,229.

Now, we also know that Strasburg Blue odds in the jumbos are 1:1,525 and Orangs are 1:15,300. That means there are 140 Blues and 14 Oranges in Jumbos.

That means there are approx. 10 Oranges and 100 Blues in Hobby - they hold back 4% for damaged card replacements.

We know hobby odds for Strasburg Blue are 1:5,700 and for Strasburg Orange are 1:56,500. If you back into total packs based on how many Blues and Oranges are known to be in hobby, you get around 1,970 hobby cases.

It is a bit hard to compare since we are used to case runs for BDP and BC based on a hobby only release. In my humble opinion, there is more of this product by a good margin then there was of 09 BDP and 08 BDP, however, the print run is not cranked.

From a total print run perspective, the number that is up the most is the autos, as you are getting 80,244 in jumbo and 23,520 in hobby. However, you get the same number of base chromes in a hobby case and in a jumbo case, so from the base chrome perspective the run is just over 4,000 cases.

I did all this quickly, so if you see errors in my logic, let me know.

Thanks!

Phil

From when I was doing this from 2004-2007, I found that Topps always held back 6% of the run, not 4%.

Are you sure they hold back a % of the run? Why wouldn't they just print a duplicate "replacement" sheet, especially for serial #d cards?

KLARNOLD said:

Are you sure they hold back a % of the run? Why wouldn't they just print a duplicate "replacement" sheet, especially for serial #d cards?

Click to expand...

im fairly certain Topps has been making hobby product to fill ordersa only since the economy took a dump in 2008.

isn't their also retail cases?

matchpenalty said:

isn't their also retail cases?

Click to expand...

Yes, but the Strasburg autos are in Hobby (regular hobby and HTA) boxes only.

Would be interesting to try and figure individual print runs on base cards.

leatherman said:

From when I was doing this from 2004-2007, I found that Topps always held back 6% of the run, not 4%.

Click to expand...

That's right, I couldn't remember if you had told me 4 or 6, in the case of the Oranges /25 though i bet they just held back one.

It is my belief that retail is where Topps will slaughter the trees.

I was thinking about this this afternoon..... 2010 Topps series one and
topps Heritage blasters are both readily available at my local
Target/Kmarts. And when i say that, i don't mean that they've been
Sitting there unsold, i mean that they are constantly getting more in.

I wonder if the same will hold true for the bowman blasters.

masonphillip said:

Now, we also know that Strasburg Blue odds in the jumbos are 1:1,525 and Orangs are 1:15,300. That means there are 140 Blues and 14 Oranges in Jumbos.

That means there are approx. 10 Oranges and 100 Blues in Hobby - they hold back 4% for damaged card replacements.

Click to expand...

Not too question your math too terribly much...but to hold back 4-6% of 14 is not 4, it would be approximately 1. Same with 4-6% of 140, definiately not 40 (closer to 8-9 based on the 6%).

ThoseBackPages said:

It is my belief that retail is where Topps will slaughter the trees.

I was thinking about this this afternoon..... 2010 Topps series one and
topps Heritage blasters are both readily available at my local
Target/Kmarts. And when i say that, i don't mean that they've been
Sitting there unsold, i mean that they are constantly getting more in.

I wonder if the same will hold true for the bowman blasters.

Click to expand...

Yep, how many blasters are in a case a store gets?

Sly said:

masonphillip said:

Now, we also know that Strasburg Blue odds in the jumbos are 1:1,525 and Orangs are 1:15,300. That means there are 140 Blues and 14 Oranges in Jumbos.

That means there are approx. 10 Oranges and 100 Blues in Hobby - they hold back 4% for damaged card replacements.

Click to expand...

Not too question your math too terribly much...but to hold back 4-6% of 14 is not 4, it would be approximately 1. Same with 4-6% of 140, definiately not 40 (closer to 8-9 based on the 6%).

Click to expand...

Sly, I think you misunderstood his math. He only held back 10 blues and 1 orange. (250 Blue Total - 140 in jumbo, 100 in hobby = 10 held back, not 40)

Sly said:

masonphillip said:

Now, we also know that Strasburg Blue odds in the jumbos are 1:1,525 and Orangs are 1:15,300. That means there are 140 Blues and 14 Oranges in Jumbos.

That means there are approx. 10 Oranges and 100 Blues in Hobby - they hold back 4% for damaged card replacements.

Click to expand...

Not too question your math too terribly much...but to hold back 4-6% of 14 is not 4, it would be approximately 1. Same with 4-6% of 140, definiately not 40 (closer to 8-9 based on the 6%).

Click to expand...

Strasburg Orange
Hobby - 10
Jumbo - 14
Held Back - 1

Strasburg Blue
Hobby - 100
Jumbo - 140
Held Back - 10

So you are holding back 10 and 1, hope I didn't mistate that it was larger than that at some point.

BowmanChromeAddict said:

Sly said:

masonphillip said:

Now, we also know that Strasburg Blue odds in the jumbos are 1:1,525 and Orangs are 1:15,300. That means there are 140 Blues and 14 Oranges in Jumbos.

That means there are approx. 10 Oranges and 100 Blues in Hobby - they hold back 4% for damaged card replacements.

Click to expand...

Not too question your math too terribly much...but to hold back 4-6% of 14 is not 4, it would be approximately 1. Same with 4-6% of 140, definiately not 40 (closer to 8-9 based on the 6%).

Click to expand...

Sly, I think you misunderstood his math. He only held back 10 blues and 1 orange. (250 Blue Total - 140 in jumbo, 100 in hobby = 10 held back, not 40)

Click to expand...

Ahhhh yes, I see now. Thanks for the clarification!

masonphillip said:

Sly said:

masonphillip said:

Now, we also know that Strasburg Blue odds in the jumbos are 1:1,525 and Orangs are 1:15,300. That means there are 140 Blues and 14 Oranges in Jumbos.

That means there are approx. 10 Oranges and 100 Blues in Hobby - they hold back 4% for damaged card replacements.

Click to expand...

Not too question your math too terribly much...but to hold back 4-6% of 14 is not 4, it would be approximately 1. Same with 4-6% of 140, definiately not 40 (closer to 8-9 based on the 6%).

Click to expand...

Strasburg Orange
Hobby - 10
Jumbo - 14
Held Back - 1

Strasburg Blue
Hobby - 100
Jumbo - 140
Held Back - 10

So you are holding back 10 and 1, hope I didn't mistate that it was larger than that at some point.

Click to expand...

No, I didn't catch the "Hobby" part. My mistake. Makes sense now!

masonphillip said:

leatherman said:

From when I was doing this from 2004-2007, I found that Topps always held back 6% of the run, not 4%.

Click to expand...

That's right, I couldn't remember if you had told me 4 or 6, in the case of the Oranges /25 though i bet they just held back one.

Click to expand...

What I found back then was that they held back 6% of all the Orange Refractors. For example, let's say there are 10 Orange Refractor autos, each numbered to 25. That means there are 250 total autos. When I would back into the math, it would show that there were 235 autos inserted into packs, which means they kept 15 back. That also means that they would hold 1 each of 5 of the players, and 2 each of the other 5. As anyone who has submitted a damaged Red or Orange knows, they will often offer you a Red or Orange of a different player, presumably because they don't have a replacement of that player.

David

Oh, and by the way...

Even though I know you enjoyed every minute of doing the legwork on this math,
thanks for doing it.

db

leatherman said:

Oh, and by the way...

Even though I know you enjoyed every minute of doing the legwork on this math,
thanks for doing it.

db

Click to expand...

Math is fun.

My general conclusion is this.

Between the jumbo and the hobby, there was a lot more of this product produced than there was of 2009 BDP, 2008 BDP and probably some other recent issues. As a result, you see longer odds on the tough parallels - blues and up - in the hobby boxes than you might like.

Its important to look at it from this perspective though. The base chrome number is the exact same as it would be if you just had 4,189 hobby cases produced - that's not a lot.

However, the chrome auto number would be equivalent to a hobby case production of (2229x2+1960) or 6,418 cases, this is because there are 24 autos in a jumbo case as opposed to just 12 autos in a hobby case. So what you are really going to see is long odds on base chrome parallels in the hobby, more chrome autos on the market than usual and markedly better odds for chrome parallels in the jumbo.

Had Topps made the auto list huge by adding crummy names to the C/L, you would have value dilution due to oveproduction. However, all the added names were good ones, so cases busters are not hurt at all - in the case of Castro and Heyward, they are helped.

matchpenalty said:

ThoseBackPages said:

It is my belief that retail is where Topps will slaughter the trees.

I was thinking about this this afternoon..... 2010 Topps series one and
topps Heritage blasters are both readily available at my local
Target/Kmarts. And when i say that, i don't mean that they've been
Sitting there unsold, i mean that they are constantly getting more in.

I wonder if the same will hold true for the bowman blasters.

Click to expand...

Yep, how many blasters are in a case a store gets?

Click to expand...

Don't know how it is in the rest of the country, but in Illinois the stores don't "get" anything.

All of the sportscard products are brought in by an independant distributor, with blasters of all different products mixed together in their own "case".

As far as products themselves in my local stores, base Topps are usually available long after release. I am lucky to see a Bowman blaster, ever.

Some more Jumbo math:

1/214000 + 1/15300 + 1/1525 + 1/520 = 1/377

Odds on pulling ANY Strasburg autograph, or approximately one for every 4 cases of Jumbos.



David