How quickly the market shifts

Just a couple of weeks ago Robbie Cano's Bowman Heritage RC Auto was the hottest card around. They went as high as $230 or so. Couple of quiet weeks later and one ends for $83. Most are still getting over $100, but it's amazing how quickly the market moves.

I saw a few get around $160 yesterday and today, while a few were more in the $140 range. They've decreased in price, but compared to what they were getting in the offseason and the recent increase in supply, prices have still certainly increased a lot.

I don't follow that set too closely, but I run across them from time to time while looking for Heritage autos. It seems like before this season, they were selling in the $75 range or so?

coltsfan23 said:

I saw a few get around $160 yesterday and today, while a few were more in the $140 range. They've decreased in price, but compared to what they were getting in the offseason and the recent increase in supply, prices have still certainly increased a lot.

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Last four got $137, $120, $111 and $83 so the $83 was surprisingly low, but the idea is there. The card was the hottest card in the hobby for a couple of weeks, and it's somewhat of a forgotten card now. He's still on pace for .326-39-101, so if that happens I'm sure it will be hot again some time this season.

It's funny how this year, impulse buying is worse than it has ever been. I guess the rich are getting richer during this economy.

mudflap02 said:

I don't follow that set too closely, but I run across them from time to time while looking for Heritage autos. It seems like before this season, they were selling in the $75 range or so?

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they were in the $30- 50 range

I've come to realize that prospecting is essentially based on speculation bubbles... it's all about getting in early and selling to the next guy that jumps on board for a profit. And once that bubble pops, the prices almost never reach that level again. The guy who gets in last always gets screwed.

Volatility = much more risk

Plus as we've seen the bubbles aren't necessarily based on anything tangible or predictable.

Invest4thefuture said:

I've come to realize that prospecting is essentially based on speculation bubbles... it's all about getting in early and selling to the next guy that jumps on board for a profit. And once that bubble pops, the prices almost never reach that level again. The guy who gets in last always gets screwed.

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Invest4thefuture said:

I've come to realize that prospecting is essentially based on speculation bubbles... it's all about getting in early and selling to the next guy that jumps on board for a profit. And once that bubble pops, the prices almost never reach that level again. The guy who gets in last always gets screwed.

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This isn't always true, but it was the case a few years ago, and we seem to be approaching that point now. It will be interesting to see where the market takes it this time. Last time it was (seemingly) the combined efforts of the economy and some major busts (and a lull in big name prospects) that caused a major correction in the market. If the economy improves and players like Harper, Strasburg and Co. come out strong, who knows where it will go.

Invest4thefuture said:

I've come to realize that prospecting is essentially based on speculation bubbles... it's all about getting in early and selling to the next guy that jumps on board for a profit. And once that bubble pops, the prices almost never reach that level again. The guy who gets in last always gets screwed.

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There are very few scenarios when this is not true.

One is Tim Lincecum. He comes up and his cards are hot from the start. He turns out to be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the next few years and his cards don't stop rising in value.

Even the people who bought his cards any time from 2008 until now still ended up having a chance to sell for more later...despite the fact that at basically any time over that stretch, it was the worst time ever to buy his cards.

Most people would probably argue that these people are not investors/prospectors, these are just collectors who happened to get lucky. 99.9% of the time, these people would be the ones losing money because they're buying at the worst possible time, but his cards just happened to keep gaining value because of his unexpected consistent dominance.