Who is going to be the next Boggs/Gwynn?

brouthercard · Jun 12, 2010

With the crackdown on PEDs over the recent years, and seeing how dominant pitching is right now, the power numbers are sure to trend downwards. It's easy to predict who the next great power hitters will be for the next decade, but which players are going to challenge for the batting title year in and year out and threaten 200 hits every year?

So who is going to be the next great singles hitter over the next decade? Either in the minors or early in the majors?

Who are the guys who will simply be impossible to strike out?

sportscardtheory · Jun 12, 2010

I see Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval in a similar light. Not a ton of power, but they rack up the hits and doubles with a high average (although Pandaval is having a really bad season).

kentuckyderby · Jun 12, 2010

Hosmer and Smoak

TraderJake · Jun 12, 2010

Ben Revere?

gt2590 · Jun 12, 2010

Justin Smoak.

He's already starting to turn it around with the Big team and they should have a good lineup for awhile, which helps too.

Bornagaincollector · Jun 12, 2010

Robinson Cano

Huffamaniac · Jun 12, 2010

chris coghlan. after a very slow start he back to being a hitting machine

Vagrant · Jun 12, 2010

Here are a few off the wall picks for me. Nolan Arenado, Hak Ju Lee, Eric Hosmer, Jon Gilmore, Freddie Freeman.

aminors · Jun 12, 2010

You say singles hitter, my mind goes immediately to Ben Revere.

Ant

JoshHamilton · Jun 12, 2010

Mauer reminds me of Boggs. 10-12 HR/yr power but can turn it up to 25+ if they have to, both hit their fair share of doubles, both perennial batting contenders

maxpower · Jun 12, 2010

JoshHamilton said:
Mauer reminds me of Boggs. 10-12 HR/yr power but can turn it up to 25+ if they have to, both hit their fair share of doubles, both perennial batting contenders

Mauer is a solid comparison so far. Both have good averages and marginal power (really more like 7-10 HR power than 10-12 HR). The 24 HR season for Boggs was a clear anomaly. He never hit more than 11 in any other year of his career and hit more than 9 only once. It's too early to tell with Mauer, but my guess is that last year will prove to be a power anomaly for him too.

I'm more bearish on Mauer than most. His stats look a lot like Jason Kendall's first 9 years. If Mauer stays behind the plate, we may start to see him start to break down physically in his early 30s.

pigskincardboard · Jun 12, 2010

maxpower said:
JoshHamilton said:

Mauer reminds me of Boggs. 10-12 HR/yr power but can turn it up to 25+ if they have to, both hit their fair share of doubles, both perennial batting contenders

Click to expand...

Mauer is a solid comparison so far. Both have good averages and marginal power (really more like 7-10 HR power than 10-12 HR). The 24 HR season for Boggs was a clear anomaly. He never hit more than 11 in any other year of his career and hit more than 9 only once. It's too early to tell with Mauer, but my guess is that last year will prove to be a power anomaly for him too.

I'm more bearish on Mauer than most. His stats look a lot like Jason Kendall's first 9 years. If Mauer stays behind the plate, we may start to see him start to break down physically in his early 30s.

I laughed and then laughed some more at this comparison. Then I did some lookin and maybe, just maybe, this'll look right:

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
897* Bill Dickey 1928-1933 6 617 2206 305 711 117 36 50 391 155 79 .322 .368 .476 18 16 122
895* Yogi Berra 1946-1951 6 623 2343 381 701 109 25 102 459 160 94 .299 .348 .498 14 11 125
889 Jason Kendall 1996-2000 5 653 2294 393 720 148 21 45 265 252 245 .314 .402 .456 93 28 121
887* Mickey Cochrane 1925-1929 5 646 2204 404 693 112 40 43 334 295 74 .314 .398 .460 35 24 117
885 Derek Jeter 1995-2000 6 786 3130 605 1008 153 35 78 414 341 572 .322 .394 .468 108 37 122
872 Frankie Hayes 1933-1941 8 784 2597 368 722 143 19 85 406 312 359 .278 .357 .446 22 13 106
865 Shanty Hogan 1925-1932 8 702 2279 232 703 118 10 51 373 153 148 .308 .359 .436 6 0 106
863* Tony Lazzeri 1926-1930 5 714 2679 443 838 158 59 73 525 294 335 .313 .383 .498 66 40 129
861 Robinson Cano 2005-2009 5 734 2855 406 875 199 17 87 394 129 335 .306 .339 .480 17 21 113
860 Joe Torre 1960-1967 8 922 3276 425 972 143 19 132 497 300 446 .297 .359 .473 9 21 132
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Average of all 10 Players 6 718 2586 396 794 140 28 74 405 239 268 .307 .372 .470 38 21 116
Avg of all 7 Retired Players 6 715 2512 365 762 128 29 76 426 238 219 .304 .367 .470 24 17 120

That's sorta nuts. Congrats.

maxpower · Jun 12, 2010

pigskincardboard said:
maxpower said:

JoshHamilton said:

Mauer reminds me of Boggs. 10-12 HR/yr power but can turn it up to 25+ if they have to, both hit their fair share of doubles, both perennial batting contenders

Click to expand...

Mauer is a solid comparison so far. Both have good averages and marginal power (really more like 7-10 HR power than 10-12 HR). The 24 HR season for Boggs was a clear anomaly. He never hit more than 11 in any other year of his career and hit more than 9 only once. It's too early to tell with Mauer, but my guess is that last year will prove to be a power anomaly for him too.

I'm more bearish on Mauer than most. His stats look a lot like Jason Kendall's first 9 years. If Mauer stays behind the plate, we may start to see him start to break down physically in his early 30s.

Click to expand...

I laughed and then laughed some more at this comparison. Then I did some lookin and maybe, just maybe, this'll look right:

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
897* Bill Dickey 1928-1933 6 617 2206 305 711 117 36 50 391 155 79 .322 .368 .476 18 16 122
895* Yogi Berra 1946-1951 6 623 2343 381 701 109 25 102 459 160 94 .299 .348 .498 14 11 125
889 Jason Kendall 1996-2000 5 653 2294 393 720 148 21 45 265 252 245 .314 .402 .456 93 28 121
887* Mickey Cochrane 1925-1929 5 646 2204 404 693 112 40 43 334 295 74 .314 .398 .460 35 24 117
885 Derek Jeter 1995-2000 6 786 3130 605 1008 153 35 78 414 341 572 .322 .394 .468 108 37 122
872 Frankie Hayes 1933-1941 8 784 2597 368 722 143 19 85 406 312 359 .278 .357 .446 22 13 106
865 Shanty Hogan 1925-1932 8 702 2279 232 703 118 10 51 373 153 148 .308 .359 .436 6 0 106
863* Tony Lazzeri 1926-1930 5 714 2679 443 838 158 59 73 525 294 335 .313 .383 .498 66 40 129
861 Robinson Cano 2005-2009 5 734 2855 406 875 199 17 87 394 129 335 .306 .339 .480 17 21 113
860 Joe Torre 1960-1967 8 922 3276 425 972 143 19 132 497 300 446 .297 .359 .473 9 21 132
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Average of all 10 Players 6 718 2586 396 794 140 28 74 405 239 268 .307 .372 .470 38 21 116
Avg of all 7 Retired Players 6 715 2512 365 762 128 29 76 426 238 219 .304 .367 .470 24 17 120

That's sorta nuts. Congrats.

I was shocked too. We think of Mauer as a superstar and Kendall as a solid contributor, but their career numbers aren't light years apart. Mauer's numbers are clearly better, but not by as much of a margin as I would have thought.

It's hard to get a bead on Mauer because his numbers are all over the place and they don't follow a normal progression. Is he a .350 hitter or a .310 hitter? A 20 HR guy or a 7 HR guy? Either way, he's a good player, but will he be an all-time great? Like I said, I don't think he can come close to duplicating what he did last year, but that's just my prediction.

kdailey4315 · Jun 12, 2010

Buster Posey

fengzhang · Jun 12, 2010

maxpower said:
pigskincardboard said:

maxpower said:

JoshHamilton said:

Mauer reminds me of Boggs. 10-12 HR/yr power but can turn it up to 25+ if they have to, both hit their fair share of doubles, both perennial batting contenders

Click to expand...

Mauer is a solid comparison so far. Both have good averages and marginal power (really more like 7-10 HR power than 10-12 HR). The 24 HR season for Boggs was a clear anomaly. He never hit more than 11 in any other year of his career and hit more than 9 only once. It's too early to tell with Mauer, but my guess is that last year will prove to be a power anomaly for him too.

I'm more bearish on Mauer than most. His stats look a lot like Jason Kendall's first 9 years. If Mauer stays behind the plate, we may start to see him start to break down physically in his early 30s.

Click to expand...

I laughed and then laughed some more at this comparison. Then I did some lookin and maybe, just maybe, this'll look right:

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
897* Bill Dickey 1928-1933 6 617 2206 305 711 117 36 50 391 155 79 .322 .368 .476 18 16 122
895* Yogi Berra 1946-1951 6 623 2343 381 701 109 25 102 459 160 94 .299 .348 .498 14 11 125
889 Jason Kendall 1996-2000 5 653 2294 393 720 148 21 45 265 252 245 .314 .402 .456 93 28 121
887* Mickey Cochrane 1925-1929 5 646 2204 404 693 112 40 43 334 295 74 .314 .398 .460 35 24 117
885 Derek Jeter 1995-2000 6 786 3130 605 1008 153 35 78 414 341 572 .322 .394 .468 108 37 122
872 Frankie Hayes 1933-1941 8 784 2597 368 722 143 19 85 406 312 359 .278 .357 .446 22 13 106
865 Shanty Hogan 1925-1932 8 702 2279 232 703 118 10 51 373 153 148 .308 .359 .436 6 0 106
863* Tony Lazzeri 1926-1930 5 714 2679 443 838 158 59 73 525 294 335 .313 .383 .498 66 40 129
861 Robinson Cano 2005-2009 5 734 2855 406 875 199 17 87 394 129 335 .306 .339 .480 17 21 113
860 Joe Torre 1960-1967 8 922 3276 425 972 143 19 132 497 300 446 .297 .359 .473 9 21 132
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Average of all 10 Players 6 718 2586 396 794 140 28 74 405 239 268 .307 .372 .470 38 21 116
Avg of all 7 Retired Players 6 715 2512 365 762 128 29 76 426 238 219 .304 .367 .470 24 17 120

That's sorta nuts. Congrats.

Click to expand...

I was shocked too. We think of Mauer as a superstar and Kendall as a solid contributor, but their career numbers aren't light years apart. Mauer's numbers are clearly better, but not by as much of a margin as I would have thought.

It's hard to get a bead on Mauer because his numbers are all over the place and they don't follow a normal progression. Is he a .350 hitter or a .310 hitter? A 20 HR guy or a 7 HR guy? Either way, he's a good player, but will he be an all-time great? Like I said, I don't think he can come close to duplicating what he did last year, but that's just my prediction.

Joe Mauer had a lot of hype coming up and has done relatively well in the majors. And then he had a year like he had last year. That probably explains why we hear a lot more about him than Jason Kendall. He's definitely better but I agree he is only marginally better than Kendall was.

I too don't think he'll duplicate what he did last year. I think he's a 10 HR per year guy and good for a .320 average when he's healthy. That's exactly what Kendall was too until his numbers fell off. We'll have to see what happens with Mauer.

colts1888 · Jun 12, 2010

Bornagaincollector said:
Robinson Cano

yea hes the guy i see he has been hitting over 300 in each of his seasons but 1 so i think he has the best chance

pigskincardboard · Jun 12, 2010

fengzhang said:
maxpower said:

pigskincardboard said:

maxpower said:

JoshHamilton said:

Mauer reminds me of Boggs. 10-12 HR/yr power but can turn it up to 25+ if they have to, both hit their fair share of doubles, both perennial batting contenders

Click to expand...

Mauer is a solid comparison so far. Both have good averages and marginal power (really more like 7-10 HR power than 10-12 HR). The 24 HR season for Boggs was a clear anomaly. He never hit more than 11 in any other year of his career and hit more than 9 only once. It's too early to tell with Mauer, but my guess is that last year will prove to be a power anomaly for him too.

I'm more bearish on Mauer than most. His stats look a lot like Jason Kendall's first 9 years. If Mauer stays behind the plate, we may start to see him start to break down physically in his early 30s.

Click to expand...

I laughed and then laughed some more at this comparison. Then I did some lookin and maybe, just maybe, this'll look right:

Sim Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
897* Bill Dickey 1928-1933 6 617 2206 305 711 117 36 50 391 155 79 .322 .368 .476 18 16 122
895* Yogi Berra 1946-1951 6 623 2343 381 701 109 25 102 459 160 94 .299 .348 .498 14 11 125
889 Jason Kendall 1996-2000 5 653 2294 393 720 148 21 45 265 252 245 .314 .402 .456 93 28 121
887* Mickey Cochrane 1925-1929 5 646 2204 404 693 112 40 43 334 295 74 .314 .398 .460 35 24 117
885 Derek Jeter 1995-2000 6 786 3130 605 1008 153 35 78 414 341 572 .322 .394 .468 108 37 122
872 Frankie Hayes 1933-1941 8 784 2597 368 722 143 19 85 406 312 359 .278 .357 .446 22 13 106
865 Shanty Hogan 1925-1932 8 702 2279 232 703 118 10 51 373 153 148 .308 .359 .436 6 0 106
863* Tony Lazzeri 1926-1930 5 714 2679 443 838 158 59 73 525 294 335 .313 .383 .498 66 40 129
861 Robinson Cano 2005-2009 5 734 2855 406 875 199 17 87 394 129 335 .306 .339 .480 17 21 113
860 Joe Torre 1960-1967 8 922 3276 425 972 143 19 132 497 300 446 .297 .359 .473 9 21 132
Joe Mauer 2004-2009 6 699 2582 419 844 158 15 72 397 368 296 .327 .408 .483 34 7 136
+---++-------------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+
Average of all 10 Players 6 718 2586 396 794 140 28 74 405 239 268 .307 .372 .470 38 21 116
Avg of all 7 Retired Players 6 715 2512 365 762 128 29 76 426 238 219 .304 .367 .470 24 17 120

That's sorta nuts. Congrats.

Click to expand...

I was shocked too. We think of Mauer as a superstar and Kendall as a solid contributor, but their career numbers aren't light years apart. Mauer's numbers are clearly better, but not by as much of a margin as I would have thought.

It's hard to get a bead on Mauer because his numbers are all over the place and they don't follow a normal progression. Is he a .350 hitter or a .310 hitter? A 20 HR guy or a 7 HR guy? Either way, he's a good player, but will he be an all-time great? Like I said, I don't think he can come close to duplicating what he did last year, but that's just my prediction.

Click to expand...

Joe Mauer had a lot of hype coming up and has done relatively well in the majors. And then he had a year like he had last year. That probably explains why we hear a lot more about him than Jason Kendall. He's definitely better but I agree he is only marginally better than Kendall was.

I too don't think he'll duplicate what he did last year. I think he's a 10 HR per year guy and good for a .320 average when he's healthy. That's exactly what Kendall was too until his numbers fell off. We'll have to see what happens with Mauer.

I remember Kendall being a fantasy superstar but Joe Mauer is just so much better than any other catcher right now, it's silly.

I'd be nice to see how well each performed against the top-10 players at their position during that span.

Anyways, Kendall's broken ankle/leg? was one of the most effed up baseball moments I'd seen and I believe it crushed a lot of fantasy hearts.

vwnut13 · Jun 12, 2010

maxpower said:
It's hard to get a bead on Mauer because his numbers are all over the place and they don't follow a normal progression. Is he a .350 hitter or a .310 hitter? A 20 HR guy or a 7 HR guy? Either way, he's a good player, but will he be an all-time great? Like I said, I don't think he can come close to duplicating what he did last year, but that's just my prediction.

If Mauer gets the same number of ABs as he did last year this is what he is on pace for...

5 HR
73 RBI
167 H
0.319 AVG

$23 Million. Ouch. Good thing he is a fan favorite.

MorneauMVP33 · Jun 12, 2010

vwnut13 said:
maxpower said:

It's hard to get a bead on Mauer because his numbers are all over the place and they don't follow a normal progression. Is he a .350 hitter or a .310 hitter? A 20 HR guy or a 7 HR guy? Either way, he's a good player, but will he be an all-time great? Like I said, I don't think he can come close to duplicating what he did last year, but that's just my prediction.

Click to expand...

If Mauer gets the same number of ABs as he did last year this is what he is on pace for...

5 HR
73 RBI
167 H
0.319 AVG

$23 Million. Ouch. Good thing he is a fan favorite.

And the Yankees still wish they had him or could get him...

donrusscrusademan · Jun 12, 2010

Im going to guess Ackley will be the next big contact hitter. right now in the minors hes not getting hits at all, but has show crazy patience and eye.

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