2010 Bowman collation: dumb luck or not truly random?

JoshHamilton · Jun 13, 2010

I was 13 cards short of my BC Prospects set after busting a few jumbos and a regular box. Bought one blaster this weekend when I was out of town.

16 BC cards per blaster, one of which was the Purple and two were USA.

I completed my set with the remaining 13.

I don't feel like doing the math, but the odds of that are huge. I can understand buying a jumbo and then another jumbo from the same case and this happening, but this was a blaster from another town. Bizarre

rookieaddict · Jun 13, 2010

That's pretty impressive. I'd like to know what the odds really are.

t3dudek · Jun 13, 2010

dumb luck collation had nothing to do with it.... But sweet that you finished it.

pigskincardboard · Jun 13, 2010

rookieaddict said:
That's pretty impressive. I'd like to know what the odds really are.

Random odds suck.

Use Topps Series 1 for example.

330 Card Set, boxes are 24 packs of 8? base cards and 2 inserts?.

So you have 329 of 330 cards total and your odds are 1/330 (per card) x 8 cards per pack, added together for each pack, or times 24.

So that puts your odds of getting the one card you need at 58%, I believe.

Which would put your odds of buying three more (completely random) boxes and not seeing that card somewhere around 7% -- That's somewhere along the lines of being able to hit your pair with a dead second card on the river (or a three outer).

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2010 Bowman collation: dumb luck or not truly random?

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