Newbie Prospecting questions +Random prize

Hi guys,
I just had a few questions I was hoping to get your input on since I'm new to baseball. And as a thank you for your input and putting up with me, I have a small package I'll send to a random poster!

1) Is it safe to assume that if an Ebay seller has several graded cards for sale, that the raw versions they have were potentially graded but did not meet the minimum grade? The reason why I ask is there are a few sellers I noticed who had a bunch of raw cards for sale, then pulled, then a week later relisted but this time slabbed, though some were back on still raw.

2) Percentage wise, what color refractor nets the most profit? I realize Gold's and Blue's are very popular, but Red's and Oranges are more rare.

3) At what point would you no longer consider a card to be mint? I've purchased almost 70 cards in the last month, most listed as mint but the condition of the cards have varied from severely off center, multiple scratches, to flawless.

4) When is the optimum time to sell, or the safest time to sell a prospect? I've been thinking about this one and there are so many stages in a players career, I'm not sure what to think. When they've been promoted to a higher class, had statistically dominant game, called up to the Majors, after they've played a few games in the bigs, etc...

5) Pitcher or hitter? Which do you prefer and why?

Last one:

I'm just about done my 2010 Bowman USA Refractor set. I kind of let it go wild and ended up with multiple copies of several players, most of which are either Gold or Orange refractors. I'm still Harperless, but I'm okay with that. So my questions are:
Should I hold on to the set for the time being? Should I move the whole thing in one lot? Should I bother getting the nicer ones graded? Or should I just keep watch and move one player at a time?

Here's what I've got:
2010 BOWMAN USA PROSPECTS

USA NATIONAL TEAM

USA-BC1 TREVOR BAUER
Gold Refractor 27/50
Blue Refractor 136/250
Refractor 751/777

USA-BC2 CHAD BETTIS
Gold Refractor 03/50
Blue Refractor 058/250

USA-BC3 BRYCE BRENTZ
Gold Refractor 19/50
Blue Refractor 220/250

USA-BC4 MICHAEL CHOICE
Gold Refractor 07/50

USA-BC5 GERRIT COLE
Gold Refractor 22/50
Gold Refractor 25/50
Gold Refractor 37/50
Gold Refractor 47/50

USA-BC6 CHRISTIAN COLON
Gold Refractor 38/50
Blue Refractor 213/250
lue Refractor 240/250

USA-BC7 BLAKE FORSYTHE
Orange Refractor 08/25

USA-BC8 YASMANI GRANDAL
Gold Refractor 42/50
Blue Refractor 153/250

USA-BC9 SONNY GRAY
Gold Refractor 12/50

USA-BC10 RICK HAGUE
Gold Refractor 45/50
Blue Refractor 010/250

USA-BC11 TYLER HOLT
Gold Refractor 08/50

USA-BC12 CASEY MCGREW
Orange Refractor 19/25
Blue Refractor /250

USA-BC13 BRAD MILLER
Refractor 03/25
Blue Refractor 168/250
Refractor 672/777

USA-BC14 MATT NEWMAN
Orange Refractor 19/25
Gold Refractor 47/50

USA-BC15 NICK PEPITONE
Gold Refractor /50

USA-BC16 DREW POMERANZ
Gold Refractor 30/50
Blue Refractor 208/250

USA-BC17 T.J. WALZ
Gold Refractor 17/50
Refractor 542/777

USA-BC18 CODY WHEELER
Orange Refractor 22/25
Orange Refractor 05/25

USA-BC19 ANDY WILKINS
Gold Refractor /50
Blue Refractor 084/250

USA-BC20 ASHER WOJCIECHOWSKI
Gold Refractor 47/50
Blue Refractor 245/250

USA-BC21 KOLTEN WONG
Orange Refractor 08/25
Blue Refractor /250

USA-BC22 TONY ZYCH
Orange Refractor 24/25



USA UNDER 18 TEAM

USA18-BC1 CODY BUCKEL
Gold Refractor 27/50
Gold Refractor 11/50
Blue Refractor 238/250
Blue Refractor 107/250

USA18-BC2 NICK CASTELLANOS
Orange Refractor 22/25
Gold Refractor 34/50
Blue Refractor 049/250
Refractor 349/777

USA18-BC3 GARIN CECCHINI
Orange Refractor 01/25
Gold Refractor 37/50
Gold Refractor 50/50
Blue Refractor 092/250

USA18-BC4 SEAN COYLE
Gold Refractor 31/50
Blue Refractor 101/250

USA18-BC5 NICKY DELMONICO
Gold Refractor 21/50

USA18-BC6 KEVIN GAUSMAN
Orange Refractor 07/25

USA18-BC7 CORY HAHN
Orange Refractor 23/25
Gold Refractor 30/50

USA18-BC8 BRYCE HARPER

USA18-BC9 KAVIN KEYES
Orange Refractor 08/25
Gold Refractor 40/50
Blue Refractor 092/250

USA18-BC10 MANNY MACHADO
Gold Refractor 20/50
Refractor /777

USA18-BC11 CONNOR MASON
Orange Refractor 12/25
Blue Refractor 195/250

USA18-BC12 LADSON MONTGOMERY
Gold Refractor 48/50

USA18-BC13 PHILLIP PFIEFER
Orange Refractor 15/25
Gold Refractor 18/50

USA18-BC14 BRIAN RAGIRA
Gold Refractor /50
Blue Refractor 094/250


USA18-BC15 ROBBIE RAY
Gold Refractor 07/50

USA18-BC16 KYLE RYAN
Gold Refractor 18/50

USA18-BC17 JAMESON TAILLON
Gold Refractor 10/50
Refractor 075/777

USA18-BC18 A.J. VANEGAS
Orange Refractor 13/25
Gold Refractor 20/50
Gold Refractor 47/50
Blue Refractor 023/250

USA18-BC19 KARSTEN WHITSON
Gold Refractor /50
Blue Refractor /250

USA18-BC20 TONY WOLTERS
Orange Refractor 22/25

I'll try my best here.
1. I try not to buy "raw" cards from known graders. Its also possible that the card they are selling is possibly not Gem Mint in thier eyes, it still could be, or it could be just a Mint card.

2. Normally the best card for resale is Blue, not everyone can afford or buy multiple gold, orange refractors if a player is "hot".

3. The reason I believe that you are getting cards that don't match up with what you are receiving is because some sellers use "stock" scans and either they have multiples on hand and are shipping the next one they have available or, they have picked up another copy and are just using an old scan instead of creating a new one.

4- Figuring that out is the hardest part- its up to you when to sell, is it when player gets on the BA Hot Sheet, ,or you double, triple your profits. Its different for everyone.

5 Pitchers are more high risk/reward type players. Hitters, there is less margin for error based on stats and there aren't many career ending injuries or season ending injuries for hitters as apposed to pitchers.

Sell when baseball is going on,or when a player is playing, don't wait till the offseason not much sells at a higher rate.

Thank you for your post and the very informative answers!

If a majority of his cards are graded and are of the same set, good chance those cards didn't meet the minimum grade of which is usually a 9 or 9.5

Blues I feel are because too many they're the most visually appealing

For a card to be mint, I feel like it would have to be worthy to be used in stock photos, to be considered less than mint, there would have to be something that you just notice that takes away from it.

When the trend for prices is upward, generally after a few dominant weeks or a big game in the majors

Hitter, generally your hitter isn't going to miss an entire season with an injury and especially with power hitters, or 5-tool type players, people tend to get very excited after a couple big weeks.

Sell now, the set only has room to decrease as players get more bowman cards in the future with their professional teams. Also individually for the big names, but maybe as small lots for the less popular guys

Hey dont know if it is for sale or trade but i need the wolters

I'll answer your questions after the Mrs. has her Dr. appointment. But, if you're parting with your Vanegas / Zych / Pepitone / Pfeifer / Brad Miller / Newman stuff, I'd be interested

1) Is it safe to assume that if an Ebay seller has several graded cards for sale, that the raw versions they have were potentially graded but did not meet the minimum grade? This really depends on how long ago the card was released. Just view it from the perspective of a grader and what percentage profit they'd make. Anything under a 9.5 is break even territory, so it'd be silly to grade it. If they can tell straight away that it's under a 9.5, they won't grade it. However, there are some cards that'll come close to a 9.5 and you just have to decide whether or not it was worth the risk when the seller sent it in. If a card has a 50% shot at getting a 9.5 and the value incre aases 50 bucks, obviously he's going to go and grade it. If the possible increase is only 25 bucks and it's got a 50% shot, then you're entering muddy waters. I think it's best to just assume cards from known graders are a 9 or worse.

2) Percentage wise, what color refractor nets the most profit? Depends on the player. Just factor in the shipping fees -- what percent of the final closing cost is a 4.00 shipping. When you buy a 10 dollar ref, you've got to sell it for almost 15 bucks to just break even. However, once you get too rare, the price doesn't climb at the same rate. Your best bet is probably golds. This allows you to also unload everything all at once without flooding, too.

3) At what point would you no longer consider a card to be mint? Did they say mint, or nm-mt? While eBay works in bizarro world, the onus should be on you to have it graded/pay for a quick appraisal to show that it's not mint.

4) When is the optimum time to sell, or the safest time to sell a prospect? No right or wrong answer. Whenever they make a huge jump in public awareness is a great time. SOmetime's that BA Top-100, sometimes hot-sheet, sometimes call-up, sometimes first few months of the season. I'd never bet on continued performance at the Major League Level.

5) Pitcher or hitter? Which do you prefer and why? For baseball teams, always go hitters. They're safer bets to achieve their ceilings. However, in the world of prospectors, you don't have to achieve your ceiling. You really only have to show that you've got a chance of hitting that ceiling. Pitchers gain a lot of hype in the minors and there's plenty of time to sell while they're down there. Depending on whether or not you're going to sell at the first hint of a price spike, you can be safe either way. If you're in it for the long term, hitters are your best bet.

Last one:

I'm just about done my 2010 Bowman USA Refractor set. I kind of let it go wild and ended up with multiple copies of several players, most of which are either Gold or Orange refractors. I'm still Harperless, but I'm okay with that. So my questions are:
Should I hold on to the set for the time being? Should I move the whole thing in one lot? Should I bother getting the nicer ones graded? Or should I just keep watch and move one player at a time?
USA NATIONAL TEAM[/b]

Lots never bring the premium that you'd expect but sometimes you get lucky.

Well I know if you want to move some of them i am doing the Blue Ref set and could use these guys. So shoot me a PM if you want to move them:

18U:
Buckel
castellanso
Cecchini
coyle
keyes
machado
mason
ray
ryan
vanegas

National team:
Bauer
Choice
Cole
Colon
Grandal
Gray
Holt
Newman
Wojciechowski

Excellent posts, thank you guys for the input so far!

cfind said:

Excellent posts, thank you guys for the input so far!

Click to expand...

You have a PM!

1.yeah, it would be safe to assume the rest arnt up to par

5.hitter, hitter, hitter. all day. dont F with pitchers or they will F with your wallet size.

sorry I dont know more

Hi guys,
I just had a few questions I was hoping to get your input on since I'm new to baseball. And as a thank you for your input and putting up with me, I have a small package I'll send to a random poster!

1) Is it safe to assume that if an Ebay seller has several graded cards for sale, that the raw versions they have were potentially graded but did not meet the minimum grade? The reason why I ask is there are a few sellers I noticed who had a bunch of raw cards for sale, then pulled, then a week later relisted but this time slabbed, though some were back on still raw.

I'm sure they sent out the better of the ones and then cracked whatever didn't meet their desires.


2) Percentage wise, what color refractor nets the most profit? I realize Gold's and Blue's are very popular, but Red's and Oranges are more rare.

Gold seem to be super hot seller's, no matter what. For some reason, they seem to outsell a good chunk of their orange counterparts.


3) At what point would you no longer consider a card to be mint? I've purchased almost 70 cards in the last month, most listed as mint but the condition of the cards have varied from severely off center, multiple scratches, to flawless.

When there is something flawed with it. If the card is off-centered, but in mint condition, it's still in mint condition to me (just OC).


4) When is the optimum time to sell, or the safest time to sell a prospect? I've been thinking about this one and there are so many stages in a players career, I'm not sure what to think. When they've been promoted to a higher class, had statistically dominant game, called up to the Majors, after they've played a few games in the bigs, etc...

I'd say the best time is when publications get their names out, or, if not then, when they make a splash in the minors (like Stanton earlier this year w/all his HR's).


5) Pitcher or hitter? Which do you prefer and why?

To me, it doesn't matter. Hitters usually command the big bucks though.

Last one:

I'm just about done my 2010 Bowman USA Refractor set. I kind of let it go wild and ended up with multiple copies of several players, most of which are either Gold or Orange refractors. I'm still Harperless, but I'm okay with that. So my questions are:
Should I hold on to the set for the time being? Should I move the whole thing in one lot? Should I bother getting the nicer ones graded? Or should I just keep watch and move one player at a time?

If you sell, list individually. Maximize your profit

1) Is it safe to assume that if an Ebay seller has several graded cards for sale, that the raw versions they have were potentially graded but did not meet the minimum grade? The reason why I ask is there are a few sellers I noticed who had a bunch of raw cards for sale, then pulled, then a week later relisted but this time slabbed, though some were back on still raw.

I would certainly make this assumption. It's not that hard for many to determine whether a card would make the cut for gem mint.

2) Percentage wise, what color refractor nets the most profit? I realize Gold's and Blue's are very popular, but Red's and Oranges are more rare.

I don't have much experience with the rarer parallels but I'm starting to realize why people buy blues and up. This also depends on the player.

3) At what point would you no longer consider a card to be mint? I've purchased almost 70 cards in the last month, most listed as mint but the condition of the cards have varied from severely off center, multiple scratches, to flawless.

Basically, if a card has more than a speck of wear somehow, I would say it's not mint. Check this out:
http://www.beckett.com/estore/helpsys/v ... icleId=257

4) When is the optimum time to sell, or the safest time to sell a prospect? I've been thinking about this one and there are so many stages in a players career, I'm not sure what to think. When they've been promoted to a higher class, had statistically dominant game, called up to the Majors, after they've played a few games in the bigs, etc...

I always like to sell when there's a good spike. I know many like to sell enough to pay off the original purchase prices and keep the rest for later. When I was younger, I enjoyed holding a card through the roller coaster. In the end, I usually ended up with something worth much less (ex. paid $35 for a 04 ultimate chris young, went up to $100, now I'm holding a $5 card).

5) Pitcher or hitter? Which do you prefer and why?
Both can be good choices but of course I'd go with hitter for obvious reasons. However, I like many more of the pitchers I have over the hitters. I suppose it just depends on the player.

Last one:

I'm just about done my 2010 Bowman USA Refractor set. I kind of let it go wild and ended up with multiple copies of several players, most of which are either Gold or Orange refractors. I'm still Harperless, but I'm okay with that. So my questions are:
Should I hold on to the set for the time being? Should I move the whole thing in one lot? Should I bother getting the nicer ones graded? Or should I just keep watch and move one player at a time?

I would grade the nicer ones and sell the rest. It is best to choose a couple players instead of going crazy like you did. We all make mistakes - it's just a matter of whether we learn from them. As a ucla student and fan, I like trevor bauer and gerrit cole so I have interest in those if you're looking to move them.

This is info I definitely needed, thanks so far to everyone who's given me a bit of their time and advice.

Here's what I've got so far for the Prize package:


2 x Strasburgs
2 x Heyward RC's
2 x Posey Gold RC's

cfind said:

This is info I definitely needed, thanks so far to everyone who's given me a bit of their time and advice.

Here's what I've got so far for the Prize package:


2 x Strasburgs
2 x Heyward RC's
2 x Posey Gold RC's

Click to expand...

SIIIICK!!

they would be pissed if the least helper won, I think you know the drill

Sorry about the delay guys, I was away for most of the weekend, I'll post the random winner tomorrow afternoon. Until then, post away!
Thanks

if a seller usually grades their cards but is selling some raw ones, ask yourself "why?"

if you wonder if you waited too late to list, you probably did
if you wonder if you waited too late to buy, you probably did

keep in mind, many on message boards pump up players because they are looking to sell

BA Hot List = good thing for sellers (many newbies that were late buying are still scooping some up)

have your OWN mind when prospecting
don't fall in love with listening to some on message baords because some are just pimping their stuff
Many who seem to be "experts" really aren't and haven't even seen many of the minor leaguers play. You are only a baseball amercia subscription away from being them


keep in mind I said "some" and not "all"

even though golds are /50 and oranges are /25, there seems to be more love for the gold at times

love the usa set you put togtether
well done

And the winner is.....


By Random draw.....


55_marlins_sp!

Please shoot me addy when you get a chance, and thanks to everyone that posted!!

PM sent