Will we ever see another 300 strikeout season...by a pitcher

Granted, Mark Reynolds (or an equally swinging slugger) may strikeout 300 times in a season, but what are the chances that we see another 300K season performance?

The closest to 300 that any current pitcher has ever been is Justin Verlander last season with 269.

Randy Johnson did it 6 times, and he two other seasons with 290+ so perhaps he along with Schilling made me expect it a bit more.

Yes, Strasburg if he stays healthy...

Who was the last pitcher to do it?

All I know is that Schilling was one of the best at doing it! :mrgreen:

Probably Strasburg.

The last time it was done was in 2002, when both Johnson and Schilling both did it...Johnson throwing 334 and Schilling with 316. For reference, Kerry Wood was a distant third with 217. The leaders in the AL were Pedro at 239 and Clemens at 192.

To think that Strasburg will do this is a bit premature. Completely premature, whether it was tongue in cheek or not. His K:IP in the Majors right now is an impressive 12.4:9IP, and to reach 300 at that amazing clip would require 218 innings. Of course, no one has thrown more than 11:9IP since 2003 where full 245 innings would be needed to reach 300.

Also, let's not forget that Strasburg hasn't thrown close to 200 innings ever in a season.

If I had to choose the field over Strasburg to reach 300Ks, I'd take the field.

200lbhockeyplayer said:

The last time it was done was in 2002, when both Johnson and Schilling both did it...Johnson throwing 334 and Schilling with 316. For reference, Kerry Wood was a distant third with 217. The leaders in the AL were Pedro at 239 and Clemens at 192.

To think that Strasburg will do this is a bit premature. Completely premature, whether it was tongue in cheek or not. His K:IP in the Majors right now is an impressive 12.4:9IP, and to reach 300 at that amazing clip would require 218 innings. Of course, no one has thrown more than 11:9IP since 2003 where full 245 innings would be needed to reach 300.

Also, let's not forget that Strasburg hasn't thrown close to 200 innings ever in a season.

If I had to choose the field over Strasburg to reach 300Ks, I'd take the field.

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+1

That's a smart bet. Probably one you could get action on somewhere, as well.

Come on! Strasburg? Can the guy even get 1/3 of a season in before we project him as a 300K pitcher?

I don't think we'll see one for a long time. Especially since pitchers seemed to get yanked with regularity once they get 100 pitches. To strike out a lot of batters you have to throw a lot of pitches.

100 pitches over 30 starts = 3000 pitches.
300K's = 900 pitches. That means almost 1/3 of your pitches are strikes. How many pitchers do we see with 70/30 srtike:ball ratio?

With that being said any pitcher under the "watchfull" eye of Dusty Baker has a great shot.

The simple answer: yes, we will. And here's why...

In 1993, the most Ks per 9 innings pitched (leaguewide) was 6.0, in both 1967 and 1987. Since then, EVERY SEASON has produced a higher K/9 ratio. Last year, the record was set at 7.0 K/9, which is the same ratio as this season.

In 1965, there were 4 starting pitchers that averaged a K per inning, which was a record that stood for 31 years. Last year, there were 11 (Lincecum and Verlander averaged over 10).

Translation: Hitters are striking out more than ever before.

Yes, innings pitched are down, but the higher strikeout frequency makes up for most of that difference. A pitcher needs to pitch 245 innings (Verlander had 240 last year to lead all of MLB) and average 11 K/9 (Lincecum averaged 10.5 in 2008) to get to 300, so it's going to take a special pitcher to get it done. But it certainly isn't impossible.

David

I'll vote for the Freak as well.

leatherman said:

The simple answer: yes, we will. And here's why...

In 1993, the most Ks per 9 innings pitched (leaguewide) was 6.0, in both 1967 and 1987. Since then, EVERY SEASON has produced a higher K/9 ratio. Last year, the record was set at 7.0 K/9, which is the same ratio as this season.

In 1965, there were 4 starting pitchers that averaged a K per inning, which was a record that stood for 31 years. Last year, there were 11 (Lincecum and Verlander averaged over 10).

Translation: Hitters are striking out more than ever before.

Yes, innings pitched are down, but the higher strikeout frequency makes up for most of that difference. A pitcher needs to pitch 245 innings (Verlander had 240 last year to lead all of MLB) and average 11 K/9 (Lincecum averaged 10.5 in 2008) to get to 300, so it's going to take a special pitcher to get it done. But it certainly isn't impossible.

David

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While hitters are obviously striking out more and teams are caring a lot less about it, starting pitchers are being carefully watched when it comes to pitch counts so it will almost have to be an aged veteran with free reign of pitch count.

Guys like Lincecum and Strasburg have heavily guarded pitch counts, as do most power pitchers these days. A guy like Tim Wakefield could toss 200 pitches in a night and need ice on his hips before needing it on his arm.

So not only will it take a K:IP higher than we've seen in years, it will also take a manager and GM to allow it to happen.

Personally, I'm hoping for it because I'm a fan of big time strikeout numbers...hence the infatuation with Randy Johnson's stats.

It'll be someone in the NL. I vote Lincecum. Perhaps a guy like Verlander were to make his way over to the senior circuit.

200lbhockeyplayer said:

Personally, I'm hoping for it because I'm a fan of big time strikeout numbers...hence the infatuation with Randy Johnson's stats.

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Most seasons with 290 or more Ks:

Randy Johnson 9 (had 290, 291, 294, plus six 300 K seasons)
Nolan Ryan 6 (all were 300 K seasons)
Curt Schilling 4
Sandy Koufax 3

Obviously, Johnson and Ryan are the only pitchers to have six 300 K seasons. Schilling and Koufax both had 3.

I will go out on a limb and say no one is going to ever have 300 more Ks than BBs in a season again. Koufax had 311 more in 1965 (382 and 71), and Johnson had 301 more in 2001 (372 and 71).

i say yes, and it will be stras if he stays healthy

Great stats and information David. It really shows just how hard it is to get that many K's.

leatherman said:

200lbhockeyplayer said:

Personally, I'm hoping for it because I'm a fan of big time strikeout numbers...hence the infatuation with Randy Johnson's stats.

Click to expand...

Most seasons with 290 or more Ks:

Randy Johnson 9 (had 290, 291, 294, plus six 300 K seasons)
Nolan Ryan 6 (all were 300 K seasons)
Curt Schilling 4
Sandy Koufax 3

Obviously, Johnson and Ryan are the only pitchers to have six 300 K seasons. Schilling and Koufax both had 3.

I will go out on a limb and say no one is going to ever have 300 more Ks than BBs in a season again. Koufax had 311 more in 1965 (382 and 71), and Johnson had 301 more in 2001 (372 and 71).

Click to expand...

I have always been a fan of Randy Johnson. I always enjoyed watching him pitch. The bolded part (about 300 more Ks than BBs) is incredible. More great stat info from leatherman. That is an impressive stat and even more impressive that only 2 pitchers have ever done it.

Guys who I think can do it:

Verlander- One of these years I can see him putting it all together and having a ridiculous season. Last season had 269
Strasburg- He's young, he's overhyped, and he's one of very few who legitimately has the stuff to do it
Lincecum- Had 260+ last season

Longer shots: Lester, Kershaw and Weaver who all average right around 10 a game.

One thing that some may have noticed is that this season the pitchers have been pitching farther into games than in the past. Pitch counts have been up and if this becomes a little trend, the increased K's around the majors could mean the return of the 300 K season.

leatherman said:

Most seasons with 290 or more Ks:

Randy Johnson 9 (had 290, 291, 294, plus six 300 K seasons)
Nolan Ryan 6 (all were 300 K seasons)
Curt Schilling 4
Sandy Koufax 3

Obviously, Johnson and Ryan are the only pitchers to have six 300 K seasons. Schilling and Koufax both had 3.

I will go out on a limb and say no one is going to ever have 300 more Ks than BBs in a season again. Koufax had 311 more in 1965 (382 and 71), and Johnson had 301 more in 2001 (372 and 71).

Click to expand...

It's kind of tough to beat the season that Johnson had in 2001 with that insane K:9IP of 13.41. Plus, he sat his last start to get the playoff rotation in place.

Sure his season total of "only" 372 is only good enough for 3rd in the Modern Era, Koufax's total of 382 was acquired with a 10.2K:9IP. Nolan Ryan's record of 383 came with 162BBs and a 10.6K:9IP.

So to me (bias included) 2001 was the single most impressive strikeout season ever.

Topnotchsy said:

One thing that some may have noticed is that this season the pitchers have been pitching farther into games than in the past. Pitch counts have been up and if this becomes a little trend, the increased K's around the majors could mean the return of the 300 K season.

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110 or more pitches in a game by the starting pitcher:
2000 - 1298 times
2001 - 948
2002 - 928
2003 - 870
2004 - 875
2005 - 820
2006 - 706
2007 - 667
2008 - 650
2009 - 746
2010 - 579 (projects to 938)

Although the projection for this year looks up, I have no idea of knowing (without some tedious work) how accurate this projection is. With late season call-ups, teams resting their starters, and other reasons...it is probable that the current rate will fall off towards the end of the year. However, 2009 was the first year with a significant increase over the previous year, and it seems that there will probably be more this year than last. At the least, it will be more than 2008.

That being said, here are the number of times a starting pitcher has gone 7 or more innings:

2000 - 1745
2001 - 1650
2002 - 1683
2003 - 1593
2004 - 1544
2005 - 1705
2006 - 1507
2007 - 1403
2008 - 1404
2009 - 1424
2010 - 1021 (projects to 1654)

So, even though there was a sizable increase in 110 pitch games from 2008 to 2009 (15% increase), the number of pitchers going 7 innings barely moved from 1404 to 1424 (1.4%). Why? Pitchers are throwing more pitches per inning.

What does this all mean? It's going to be tough for a pitcher to get to 300 Ks again. Then again, it's only happened 33 times in all of baseball history, so it always has been tough. We just got spoiled with Schilling, Johnson, and Ryan (who own 15 of the 33 seasons).

I would LOVE to see it happen but I just don't think it will.

If a pitcher makes 30 starts a season then he would have to strike out 10 batters a game for him to get to 300. With managers being protective of their pitchers only letting them go 6-7 innings or 100-115 pitches then I don't really see it happening again.

Some pitchers will come close [280ish] but not close enough...


Just my $.02