Tulowitzki Gold Ref. sells for $306

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... fresh=true

Thoughts on the price? Still not what lots of top prospects get, but obviously a lot more than his stuff was getting a few weeks ago. I still think the gold ref's of big name players have a lot of room for growth.

Topnotchsy said:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=160478730440&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&autorefresh=true

Thoughts on the price? Still not what lots of top prospects get, but obviously a lot more than his stuff was getting a few weeks ago. I still think the gold ref's of big name players have a lot of room for growth.

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Still seems higher than what I would pay for it... but this is good news for your gold 9.5. Have you had any decent offers on it?

piggy1918 said:

Topnotchsy said:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=160478730440&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&autorefresh=true

Thoughts on the price? Still not what lots of top prospects get, but obviously a lot more than his stuff was getting a few weeks ago. I still think the gold ref's of big name players have a lot of room for growth.

Click to expand...

Still seems higher than what I would pay for it... but this is good news for your gold 9.5. Have you had any decent offers on it?

Click to expand...

Nothing in the ballpark yet. Long term I like the card, even at this price, but odds are it will drop after this spike and if I so choose I'd find another one (and school is ridiculously expensive, so can't pass up the chance to make a nice flip.)

I'm interested in knowing who is picking these up demographic-wise. While its very interesting to see the action these cards are getting now, I'm much more interested in seeing the action in fifteen years, I'm starting to wonder if others may be starting to see that way too with all but the greatest super-stars. I've noticed the prices of low numbered parallels from this set of low-mid level players aren't particularly impressive.

On a related note I like how Beckett categorizes cards according to their print run:
No Print Run
One of Ones
Very Short Run (2-10)
Short Run (11-25)
Mid Run (26-50)
Very Large Run (101-250)
Huge Run (250+)

Seems a print run of 50 is a "Mid Run" but almost what could be extrapolated as a "Large Run". Are people likely to want to invest heavily in a card with a mid-large run now?

uniquebaseballcards said:

I'm interested in knowing who is picking these up demographic-wise. While its very interesting to see the action these cards are getting now, I'm much more interested in seeing the action in fifteen years, I'm starting to wonder if others may be starting to see that way too with all but the greatest super-stars. I've noticed the prices of low numbered parallels from this set of low-mid level players aren't particularly impressive.

On a related note I like how Beckett categorizes cards according to their print run:
No Print Run
One of Ones
Very Short Run (2-10)
Short Run (11-25)
Mid Run (26-50)
Very Large Run (101-250)
Huge Run (250+)

Seems a print run of 50 is a "Mid Run" but almost what could be extrapolated as a "Large Run". Are people likely to want to invest heavily in a card with a mid-large run now?

Click to expand...

Not certain I follow. Are you saying you thinking prices will go up by then or down?

I don't worry about how Beckett categorizes them. The gold ref's are the "gold standard" and 50 is just not too many. For a random card with nothing to differentiate it's no big deal since a player can have 1000 cards /50, but the gold ref. is a specific one.

thats a great sale for a raw chrome card that is about 5 years old.

I suspect many people are in a holding pattern for all but the greatest stars (like Pujols, any others?) from a few years ago and longer, and I think a lot of people are starting to hold off buying these cards (incl. 2005 BC/BCDP) until they see what value these kinds of cards can achieve long-term and may be happy with less expensive alternatives in the meantime - including newer prospects to flip. There are just so many things to consider long-term and there hasn't been much of a history yet for people to make judgments. Maybe we could use 1998 & 1999 for comparison with regard to low #d BC parallels...meh probably not.

I think the way the card presents/looks like will make a greater impact than the print run for most cards - except for perhaps the 1/1s. Set collectors also drive values, I don't know how many people try to complete BC parallel sets but I'd suspect not many in comparison to other sets.

Just my .02.

Edit: One additional problem with Tulo is that people have to know how to type in his name in an ebay search!

Topnotchsy said:

Not certain I follow. Are you saying you thinking prices will go up by then or down?

I don't worry about how Beckett categorizes them. The gold ref's are the "gold standard" and 50 is just not too many. For a random card with nothing to differentiate it's no big deal since a player can have 1000 cards /50, but the gold ref. is a specific one.

Click to expand...

uniquebaseballcards said:

I suspect many people are in a holding pattern for all but the greatest stars (like Pujols, any others?) from a few years ago and longer, and I think a lot of people are starting to hold off buying these cards (incl. 2005 BC/BCDP) until they see what value these kinds of cards can achieve long-term and may be happy with less expensive alternatives in the meantime - including newer prospects to flip. There are just so many things to consider long-term and there hasn't been much of a history yet for people to make judgments. Maybe we could use 1998 & 1999 for comparison with regard to low #d BC parallels...meh probably not.

I think the way the card presents/looks like will make a greater impact than the print run for most cards - except for perhaps the 1/1s. Set collectors also drive values, I don't know how many people try to complete BC parallel sets but I'd suspect not many in comparison to other sets.

Just my .02.

Edit: One additional problem with Tulo is that people have to know how to type in his name in an ebay search!

Topnotchsy said:

Not certain I follow. Are you saying you thinking prices will go up by then or down?

I don't worry about how Beckett categorizes them. The gold ref's are the "gold standard" and 50 is just not too many. For a random card with nothing to differentiate it's no big deal since a player can have 1000 cards /50, but the gold ref. is a specific one.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Troy Tulo*

Hallsgator said:

uniquebaseballcards said:

I suspect many people are in a holding pattern for all but the greatest stars (like Pujols, any others?) from a few years ago and longer, and I think a lot of people are starting to hold off buying these cards (incl. 2005 BC/BCDP) until they see what value these kinds of cards can achieve long-term and may be happy with less expensive alternatives in the meantime - including newer prospects to flip. There are just so many things to consider long-term and there hasn't been much of a history yet for people to make judgments. Maybe we could use 1998 & 1999 for comparison with regard to low #d BC parallels...meh probably not.

I think the way the card presents/looks like will make a greater impact than the print run for most cards - except for perhaps the 1/1s. Set collectors also drive values, I don't know how many people try to complete BC parallel sets but I'd suspect not many in comparison to other sets.

Just my .02.

Edit: One additional problem with Tulo is that people have to know how to type in his name in an ebay search!

Topnotchsy said:

Not certain I follow. Are you saying you thinking prices will go up by then or down?

I don't worry about how Beckett categorizes them. The gold ref's are the "gold standard" and 50 is just not too many. For a random card with nothing to differentiate it's no big deal since a player can have 1000 cards /50, but the gold ref. is a specific one.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Troy Tulo*

Click to expand...

I agree that I don't really think that it makes that much of a difference, especially if he continues to play at a really high level.

unique- You think so? I think we've seen what rarer RC cards of big name games get (looking at the high graded stuff and some of the rarer stuff like Tiffany and the like from the 80's.) I also wonder if people think that far ahead. I imagine many buy because they like the player and know that the rarer cards only get tougher to find.

(And we see some of the cards from 1998/1999 Chrome sell really well. The Troy Glaus [a player who is far from hot and not exceptionally popular] /5 refractor RC sold for close to a grand recently, and the gold ref.'s from 1999 sell well.)

eBay has become the great equalizer, but I think that for the biggest names, the best cards have huge potential.

The $306 is twice as much as you could pick a raw up for during the 1st half of 2009, but I haven't seen many live auction raw listings.

[ebay:2g4idf7o]220667561881[/ebay:2g4idf7o]

This card was sold too soon obviously. A 9.5 sold for $550 before the 2009 season. That is a tough 9.5.

[ebay:2g4idf7o]170516213727[/ebay:2g4idf7o] This was a steal....The Blue would be $200 by itself right now. The other 3 would be $40-$60 per.

There really hasn't been a lot of sales on his rare RC's. I'd like to see a 2005 Bowman Sterling Black Refractor /25 run on a live auction. That is an interesting card since there is half the print run as the gold refractors.

I'm really surprised I haven't got any legitimate offers on my Superfractor. It missed reserve at $2,400 in 2007 and he is hotter than ever right now.

Anyway, this is really fun....Go Tulo!

Question: If he hits 7 more homeruns (breaks the month record) and ends up with something like .330+, 31 HR's, 100 (missed 33 games) RBI and GG defense; where does he finish in the MVP voting???

I think thats a rather high price for a 5'th year player who has been average most of his career, with a good year last year and a silly month this year. He needs to be a much better player consistantly to see star like numbers.

matfanofold said:

I think thats a rather high price for a 5'th year player who has been average most of his career, with a good year last year and a silly month this year. He needs to be a much better player consistantly to see star like numbers.

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Considering he broke Ernie Banks Rookie SS HR record, he hasn't been average since 2007. 2008 was his bad year and that was due to missing 61 games.

He plays GG defense at SS and his seasonal average is .292, 34 doubles, 27 HR, 99 RBI. That isn't average.

I think the price reflects a realization that a 25 y/o SS has 91 career HR's and seems to be at the very beginning of a unbelievable career.

If the Rockies win the division, and he finishes strong this month, i could see him cracking the top 5 in the MVP race

As awesome as Tulo is (and he's way awesome), his defense is being a little overrated lately. By most metrics, he's about the 4th best SS in the NL and is miles and miles behind Brendan Ryan. He also had about the 6th best defensive season in the league last year so we're about 3 years removed from him being 'elite' in the NL.

braden said:

As awesome as Tulo is (and he's way awesome), his defense is being a little overrated lately. By most metrics, he's about the 4th best SS in the NL and is miles and miles behind Brendan Ryan. He also had about the 6th best defensive season in the league last year so we're about 3 years removed from him being 'elite' in the NL.

Click to expand...

What metrics? He is currently #1 in range factor per 9IP and games played. I'm admittedly not up on all of the defensive metrics out there, so I'm curious to see what you are looking at.

I don't see Brendan Ryan play on a regular basis, so I can't judge him on actually seeing him. But I do see Tulo play nearly every game, and I don't need to see anybody else to know what I actually see with Tulo -- he's the best defensive SS I've seen since Ozzie Smith. And yes, he's better than Omar Vizquel. By miles.

ccouch (Chad) said:

braden said:

As awesome as Tulo is (and he's way awesome), his defense is being a little overrated lately. By most metrics, he's about the 4th best SS in the NL and is miles and miles behind Brendan Ryan. He also had about the 6th best defensive season in the league last year so we're about 3 years removed from him being 'elite' in the NL.

Click to expand...

What metrics? He is currently #1 in range factor per 9IP and games played. I'm admittedly not up on all of the defensive metrics out there, so I'm curious to see what you are looking at.

I don't see Brendan Ryan play on a regular basis, so I can't judge him on actually seeing him. But I do see Tulo play nearly every game, and I don't need to see anybody else to know what I actually see with Tulo -- he's the best defensive SS I've seen since Ozzie Smith. And yes, he's better than Omar Vizquel. By miles.

Click to expand...

Hey Chad. While defensive metrics are still a work in progress, most people view UZR as the most efficient. Ryan leads the way by a country mile. Here's the Fangraphs link:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 10&month=0

I certainly don't take them as gospel but I do think they've progressed enough to tell a pretty convincing story.

What's insane is that as hot as he's been, his cards still aren't as hot as they were in the 2007 run. I blame the economy.

I was really excited to see this in auction finally but it quickly left the range of affordability for me. Hope he keeps it up and that i can eventually find one for less.

braden said:

ccouch (Chad) said:

braden said:

As awesome as Tulo is (and he's way awesome), his defense is being a little overrated lately. By most metrics, he's about the 4th best SS in the NL and is miles and miles behind Brendan Ryan. He also had about the 6th best defensive season in the league last year so we're about 3 years removed from him being 'elite' in the NL.

Click to expand...

What metrics? He is currently #1 in range factor per 9IP and games played. I'm admittedly not up on all of the defensive metrics out there, so I'm curious to see what you are looking at.

I don't see Brendan Ryan play on a regular basis, so I can't judge him on actually seeing him. But I do see Tulo play nearly every game, and I don't need to see anybody else to know what I actually see with Tulo -- he's the best defensive SS I've seen since Ozzie Smith. And yes, he's better than Omar Vizquel. By miles.

Click to expand...

Hey Chad. While defensive metrics are still a work in progress, most people view UZR as the most efficient. Ryan leads the way by a country mile. Here's the Fangraphs link:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 10&month=0

I certainly don't take them as gospel but I do think they've progressed enough to tell a pretty convincing story.

Click to expand...

I'm going to have to educate myself about UZR. I'll tell you what my initial reaction is though -- any defensive metric that shows Tulowitzki to be the 4th best defensive SS in the league has some severe flaws.

Topnotchsy said:

Hallsgator said:

uniquebaseballcards said:

I suspect many people are in a holding pattern for all but the greatest stars (like Pujols, any others?) from a few years ago and longer, and I think a lot of people are starting to hold off buying these cards (incl. 2005 BC/BCDP) until they see what value these kinds of cards can achieve long-term and may be happy with less expensive alternatives in the meantime - including newer prospects to flip. There are just so many things to consider long-term and there hasn't been much of a history yet for people to make judgments. Maybe we could use 1998 & 1999 for comparison with regard to low #d BC parallels...meh probably not.

I think the way the card presents/looks like will make a greater impact than the print run for most cards - except for perhaps the 1/1s. Set collectors also drive values, I don't know how many people try to complete BC parallel sets but I'd suspect not many in comparison to other sets.

Just my .02.

Edit: One additional problem with Tulo is that people have to know how to type in his name in an ebay search!

Topnotchsy said:

Not certain I follow. Are you saying you thinking prices will go up by then or down?

I don't worry about how Beckett categorizes them. The gold ref's are the "gold standard" and 50 is just not too many. For a random card with nothing to differentiate it's no big deal since a player can have 1000 cards /50, but the gold ref. is a specific one.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Troy Tulo*

Click to expand...

I agree that I don't really think that it makes that much of a difference, especially if he continues to play at a really high level.

unique- You think so? I think we've seen what rarer RC cards of big name games get (looking at the high graded stuff and some of the rarer stuff like Tiffany and the like from the 80's.) I also wonder if people think that far ahead. I imagine many buy because they like the player and know that the rarer cards only get tougher to find.

(And we see some of the cards from 1998/1999 Chrome sell really well. The Troy Glaus [a player who is far from hot and not exceptionally popular] /5 refractor RC sold for close to a grand recently, and the gold ref.'s from 1999 sell well.)

eBay has become the great equalizer, but I think that for the biggest names, the best cards have huge potential.

Click to expand...

Sure I agree the biggest names can get some coin at any particular time, I said as much above. People are thinking ahead about future value all the time, especially when potential purchases can reach into a few hundred bucks or more and there aren't any other cards to compare the value to.

But the 'tough' cards are normally available on ebay, even with print runs of 50. Maybe not every day, but usually several times a year - which is a lot considering a print run of 50. A couple '05 Tulo gold refs have been available these last couple days alone...one of which is yours apparently

Some of the cards from '98/'99 do sell relatively well, but not particularly well. Troy Glaus was always one of the premiere players of the '98 set, and was one of the hottest players - a premiere slugger nonetheless - in the hobby for several years. He won a couple silver sluggers while young, four AS games, has 320HRs and I know of a couple people who collect the guy. He will appear on the HOF ballot when he retires and will get some votes but won't get in. While I'd be interested in seeing the bids for the #/5 card, I'd think the card would be worth much more than $1K for such a player given how much people normally pay for other cards. Perhaps someday it will reach greater heights, but that seems doubtful, doesn't it?