Stat geeks come in: New stats?

soccerman034 · Sep 25, 2010

Being a follower of the Saber-metric community and Bill James, I thought a post like this would be interesting. What current facet of the game does not currently have a means to evaluate it, and how could you make one?

Here is an example;

I my discussions of Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard, I found myself always going back to the percentage of plate appearances that each played had in a given year with RISP. RBI, is a statistic that has a great deal of luck involved with it; if your teammates get on base enough, you will have a boat load of RBI. So couldn't we temper those gawdy ERA numbers with a %PAw/RISP?

Obviously, there are a few kinks to work out, but thats what you guys are here to help me with. Should it be "Runner in Scoring Position" or "Men on Base."? How do you work out the value between each individual PA with RISP situation? You obviously have a chance to produce more RBI when you are hitting more with the bases loaded than with just a guy on second (if that makes sense). Anyways, lets hear you suggestions!

Incline Investments · Sep 25, 2010

Give it a point value. For instance, runner on 3rd, nobody out could be worth less points (or more, depending on if more or less is better) than a runner on 1st with 2 outs.

Or if there are just too many options that way, go 1 point for a runner on 3rd, 2 points for runner on 2nd, 3 for on 1st, etc., with a multiplier for how many outs.

Obviously it's a ton to figure out, and will get very confusing, but like you said you're into this kind of thing anyway.

soccerman034 · Sep 25, 2010

Incline Investments said:
Give it a point value. For instance, runner on 3rd, nobody out could be worth less points (or more, depending on if more or less is better) than a runner on 1st with 2 outs.

Or if there are just too many options that way, go 1 point for a runner on 3rd, 2 points for runner on 2nd, 3 for on 1st, etc., with a multiplier for how many outs.

Obviously it's a ton to figure out, and will get very confusing, but like you said you're into this kind of thing anyway.

Don't get me wrong, math is the bane of my existence. Statistics (applied to sports), is the only thing that i really enjoy math wise, even though it was highest mark on my ACT and SAT.

ThoseBackPages · Sep 25, 2010

Dude, and you want to quit the hobby?

this is a fantastic post, and posts like this will be missed if you leave FCB

i cant wait until the stats godfather (Leatherman) chimes in here

Codasco07 · Sep 25, 2010

soccerman034 said:
Being a follower of the Saber-metric community and Bill James, I thought a post like this would be interesting. What current facet of the game does not currently have a means to evaluate it, and how could you make one?

Here is an example;

I my discussions of Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard, I found myself always going back to the percentage of plate appearances that each played had in a given year with RISP. RBI, is a statistic that has a great deal of luck involved with it; if your teammates get on base enough, you will have a boat load of RBI. So couldn't we temper those gawdy ERA numbers with a %PAw/RISP?

Obviously, there are a few kinks to work out, but thats what you guys are here to help me with. Should it be "Runner in Scoring Position" or "Men on Base."? How do you work out the value between each individual PA with RISP situation? You obviously have a chance to produce more RBI when you are hitting more with the bases loaded than with just a guy on second (if that makes sense). Anyways, lets hear you suggestions!

The problem with this idea is it brings all the problems of batting average into the equation. If two players are presented with the exact same opportunities and have the exact same AVG/OBP/SLG and one ends up with 20 more RBI, does that say anything about the player? He was fortunate to get hits dropping in with runners on base and the other wasn't. The best stats are the ones that leave any relationship with the traditional ones behind. It's only going to get more advanced as BatFx and FieldFx come into play. It's possible that in the future even HRs have less significance because we will be able to know which players are hitting the ball with the top velocity and angle.

pigskincardboard · Sep 25, 2010

soccerman034 said:
Being a follower of the Saber-metric community and Bill James, I thought a post like this would be interesting. What current facet of the game does not currently have a means to evaluate it, and how could you make one?

Here is an example;

I my discussions of Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard, I found myself always going back to the percentage of plate appearances that each played had in a given year with RISP. RBI, is a statistic that has a great deal of luck involved with it; if your teammates get on base enough, you will have a boat load of RBI. So couldn't we temper those gawdy ERA numbers with a %PAw/RISP?

Obviously, there are a few kinks to work out, but thats what you guys are here to help me with. Should it be "Runner in Scoring Position" or "Men on Base."? How do you work out the value between each individual PA with RISP situation? You obviously have a chance to produce more RBI when you are hitting more with the bases loaded than with just a guy on second (if that makes sense). Anyways, lets hear you suggestions!

The easiest way to do this is to

A) Decide if players consistently put up numbers that would indicate that they hit better or worse w/ RISP.

leatherman · Sep 25, 2010

I want a stat that calculates stolen bases rates per times on first base (and second base). I contend that Vince Coleman was a better base stealer than Rickey Henderson, but Henderson was standing on first base far more often than Coleman. You can end up on first base with a fielder's choice, an error, catcher's interference, etc, in addition to hits, walks, and HBPs.

For example, Coleman stole 107 bases (caught only 14 times) in 1986 with a .232 BA and a .301 OBP. He had 139 hits, 60 walks, and 2 HBP. He had 13 doubles and 8 triples (no home runs), so he was standing on first base at least 180 times. I have no idea how many more times he was on first, and how many times he stole second base from first base. 107/180 is 59.4%.

Henderson stole 130 bases in 1982 (caught 42 times) with a .267 BA and a .398 OBP. He had 143 hits and 116 walks (led AL), and 2 HBP. He had 24 doubles, 4 triples, and 10 HRs, so he was standing on first base at least 223 times. 130/223 is 58.3%.

But how many times did each steal third base? How many more times were each on first base from some other means? Were they used as a pinch runner in any games? There are box scores of all their games, so it could be calculated, but no one has done the work to date. What about the number of pitches the batters saw when each was on first base? If the hitters were patient, did that give them more opportunities to steal vs an aggressive hitter that swung at the first pitch?

mrwhitesox30 · Sep 26, 2010

I don't know if they already have this, but I always thought that stolen bases should be part of OPS. If a walk and a single count as the same thing for on-base percentage, then why not count a single and stolen base as the same as a double? It's an extra base accomplished by the batter that gives the next guy a better chance of knocking him in. Caught stealing would also have to be involved, as that takes a runner out of the equation.

Perhaps, the new OPS:

Slugging = (TB + SB - CS) / AB

On-base percentage = (H + BB + HBP - CS) / (AB + BB + SF + HBP)

This would give one extra base to slugging for each base that you stole greater than those where you were caught, and would penalize you in OBP for caught stealing. Thoughts?

soccerman034 · Sep 26, 2010

leatherman said:
I want a stat that calculates stolen bases rates per times on first base (and second base). I contend that Vince Coleman was a better base stealer than Rickey Henderson, but Henderson was standing on first base far more often than Coleman. You can end up on first base with a fielder's choice, an error, catcher's interference, etc, in addition to hits, walks, and HBPs.

For example, Coleman stole 107 bases (caught only 14 times) in 1986 with a .232 BA and a .301 OBP. He had 139 hits, 60 walks, and 2 HBP. He had 13 doubles and 8 triples (no home runs), so he was standing on first base at least 180 times. I have no idea how many more times he was on first, and how many times he stole second base from first base. 107/180 is 59.4%.

Henderson stole 130 bases in 1982 (caught 42 times) with a .267 BA and a .398 OBP. He had 143 hits and 116 walks (led AL), and 2 HBP. He had 24 doubles, 4 triples, and 10 HRs, so he was standing on first base at least 223 times. 130/223 is 58.3%.

But how many times did each steal third base? How many more times were each on first base from some other means? Were they used as a pinch runner in any games? There are box scores of all their games, so it could be calculated, but no one has done the work to date. What about the number of pitches the batters saw when each was on first base? If the hitters were patient, did that give them more opportunities to steal vs an aggressive hitter that swung at the first pitch?

Great post. I always found it pretty awesome that my three favorite base stealer of all-time (not including Cobb/Wagner/Robinson) played in the same era: Vince Coleman, Tim Raines, and Ricky Henderson. I would contend that Tim Raines should be in the Hall, but hey, that might just be me

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