Can the companies sustain the output?

Topnotchsy · Jan 11, 2009

Recently we've seen sets like Prime Cuts and Sterling with some insane, insane patches; the nicest patches we may have ever seen (possibly outside of 2005 Absolute.) My question was whether the companies can sustain such output over the decade as far as cost, and as far as materials. The HOF jerseys aren't cheap, and they are limited (obviously some players more than others.) As the years go on the companies also have to outdo previous sets/years, since the increases in quantity always drive prices down at least a little. I'm wondering if the companies are putting themselves in a position where they will have a really tough time to succeed, as materials become more expensive, and cards drop in price.

(I'm typing this really quickly as I run out the door so I am not sure my ideas will come across coherently, but I hope this makes some sense [and I'll try to fix it up later if need be.])

KC37 · Jan 11, 2009

I thought the same thing a day or two ago. I don't have a concrete feeling on what will happen, but at least I can say that it's occurred to me, too.

Why does it always seem you start these discussion-provoking threads on your way out the door?

flightposite · Jan 11, 2009

Any time you have a certain amount of resources, the more you use it, the less you have going forward. Hasn't anyone noticed UD's cutback of old HOFers? Eventually, it's all going to slow up.

Either that, or they'll just fake some more jerseys... :lol:

Topnotchsy · Jan 11, 2009

bungle77 said:
I thought the same thing a day or two ago. I don't have a concrete feeling on what will happen, but at least I can say that it's occurred to me, too.

Why does it always seem you start these discussion-provoking threads on your way out the door?

Ironic that I stopped by the computer for a couple of minutes before running out again and I read this.

I think it's easier to post these and run so that I have an excuse for poorly worded, unintelligent posts.

I do think that the answer to this question will help dictate the long term values of many of these products (both the singles, and the closed boxes.)

Topnotchsy · Jan 11, 2009

Any thoughts?

Utleyfan1 · Jan 11, 2009

At some point they have to run out of the retired stuff. It's just a matter of time. I think that Donruss somewhat out did themselves this year with Primecuts.

Topnotchsy · Jan 11, 2009

Utleyfan1 said:
At some point they have to run out of the retired stuff. It's just a matter of time. I think that Donruss somewhat out did themselves this year with Primecuts.

Do you think so?

It's hard to imagine a company would be so shortsighted as to deplete their stock in an area that is very finite over a couple of sets.

I do wonder if the companies are so busy being competitive with each other that they are creating a market where they will not really be able to compete, not with each other, but with past product, and with what is already out on the market and available.

tonsofcommons · Jan 11, 2009

And once the good stuff (retired and deceased player game used) has run out, people will not longer want the PWS (plain white swatches).

At that point, the card companies would be smart to turn back to their roots and come up with the cool inserts again.

Just my .02

Bigfan5 · Jan 12, 2009

As far as cost I want to say yes but as far as availability absolutely no. Looking at Prime Cuts this year we can use Jackie Robinson as a perfect example. He was touted as one of the big hits in the set this year yet all of his patches are actually from a jacket. So far at least, there have been no jersey patches and that includes the low numbered hits as well. I think the last of the big patches of his were in 2005 Sweet Spot Classic and obviously they aren't making any more of his jersey's. The more recent HOF players are thrown around these sets with beautiful multi-color patches but I have to believe it's fairly easy to obtain a Cal Ripken or Tony Gwynn used jersey.

As far as cost I believe if the items are out there the companies will pay. As you said, they have to try and out-do themselves as well as the competition so exclusivity of a jersey or other piece will fuel the spending. They can also charge an arm and a leg because they know the people that buy these products are gamblers always looking for the next big hit.

For these reasons I think these cards are a fairly good investment in the hobby. Much like vintage cards, they aren't making more thus keeping the value at the very least.

JVC · Jan 12, 2009

The REAL question is, what would make a better investment, the cards or the actual memorabilia that these companies will eventually be fighting over?

wideright · Jan 12, 2009

There's no way it can sustain if they attempt to do a jumbo patch type product with legends' jerseys every year. If they spaced it out to every 4-5 years, then it would be feasible for the next couple decades. But eventually we all know what's going to happen.

I mean, obviously Donruss hung onto their stash of jerseys since they lost their license. so now they have even less of what they had. But I'm sure they are out there replenishing their GU vault, so now you have 3 major players in the game again, along with up-n-comers. Yeah it's not going to sustain as long as collectors might hope it will. I am pretty sure that there's a chance that when my boys get older and if they collect cards, they may not ever have the chance to see new releases of Ruth or Cobb or Gehrig game-used cards.

beefycheddar · Jan 12, 2009

JVC said:
The REAL question is, what would make a better investment, the cards or the actual memorabilia that these companies will eventually be fighting over?

I'd say the cards since much less cost, so probably a much higher ROI potential.

ChasHawk · Jan 12, 2009

As far as what I've read/heard, DLP has no plans to sustain it. The biggest reason why Prime Cuts IV is as loaded as it is, is because DLP's contracts to use the likeness, etc. of most of those players expired on 12/31/08. So, they let out the clutch and set out to destroy Sterling with every last patch/auto sticker they had left. It seems they did a pretty good job too. Just look at all of the complaints about the insane amount of plain white/gray jersey swatches for HOFers in 08 Sterling.

Topnotchsy · Jan 17, 2009

Bumping this up. Think it's an interesting discussion...

theplasticman · Jan 17, 2009

chashawk said:
As far as what I've read/heard, DLP has no plans to sustain it. The biggest reason why Prime Cuts IV is as loaded as it is, is because DLP's contracts to use the likeness, etc. of most of those players expired on 12/31/08. So, they let out the clutch and set out to destroy Sterling with every last patch/auto sticker they had left. It seems they did a pretty good job too. Just look at all of the complaints about the insane amount of plain white/gray jersey swatches for HOFers in 08 Sterling.

Good point... I hadn't really considered that as a factor.

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