How tough was the 92 upperdeck Ted Williams?

jam92102 · Oct 14, 2010

Just curious did anyone ever pull one of the autos in 1992 upperdeck baseball of Ted Williams. I thought I'd give it a shot and bought two hobby boxes off DA Card world. Of course didn't pull it.

I figured being out of /2500 I'd have a chance. Upperdeck doesn't state the odds. Anybody know what the odds roughed out to be?

I've tried the boxes of 91 and 92 score for the mantles also. Any odds on those?

smapdi · Oct 14, 2010

Considering that back in the day case runs were estimated to be close to 100,000, and those were 20-box cases, odds of finding a #/2500 card are one in a blajillion.

matfanofold · Oct 14, 2010

Yeah, you would probablly be lucky to pull one out of 20 cases let alone 2 boxes...

ThoseBackPages · Oct 14, 2010

i pulled a Bench/Morgan out of the high number series that year. im pretty sure the odds were listed at 1:25,000 packs

jam92102 · Oct 14, 2010

Wow that is crazy!! I mean I guess it's worth a shot every now and then for $13. Another forum I'm on a guy said around 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 cases. There surely is a lot of them still out there.

jam92102 · Oct 14, 2010

ThoseBackPages said:
i pulled a Bench/Morgan out of the high number series that year. im pretty sure the odds were listed at 1:25,000 packs

Man crazy pull! Guess it's just a matter of luck.

sebpoo · Oct 14, 2010

jam92102 said:
Wow that is crazy!! I mean I guess it's worth a shot every now and then for $13. Another forum I'm on a guy said around 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 cases. There surely is a lot of them still out there.

:?:
I would like to meet the seller.

kdailey4315 · Oct 14, 2010

Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

beefycheddar · Oct 14, 2010

kdailey4315 said:
Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

I think there is a decade plus statute of limitations for card companies.....

kdailey4315 · Oct 14, 2010

beefycheddar said:
kdailey4315 said:

Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

Click to expand...

I think there is a decade plus statute of limitations for card companies.....

I'm just talking in general terms. Not necessarily about this specific case.

beefycheddar · Oct 14, 2010

kdailey4315 said:
beefycheddar said:

kdailey4315 said:

Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

Click to expand...

I think there is a decade plus statute of limitations for card companies.....

Click to expand...

I'm just talking in general terms. Not necessarily about this specific case.

I was joking, there is no legal recourse due to the fact that the odds are over the entire run, and you can just get unlucky, it's not a guarantee if you open x number of packs that you will pull a particular card.

leatherman · Oct 14, 2010

kdailey4315 said:
Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

No way.

Let's say the odds are 1 in 2000 that you will pull an autograph.

If you open 2000 packs:
There is a 36.80% chance you will not pull an autograph.
There is a 36.78% chance you will pull exactly one autograph.
There is a 26.42% chance you will pull more than one auto.

If you open 10000 packs:
There is only a 0.67% chance that you will not pull an auto. If 150 people each open 10000 packs, one person will not receive a single autograph, statistically speaking. It sucks to be that one person, but it happens.

David

TBTwinsFan · Oct 14, 2010

beefycheddar said:
kdailey4315 said:

beefycheddar said:

kdailey4315 said:

Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

Click to expand...

I think there is a decade plus statute of limitations for card companies.....

Click to expand...

I'm just talking in general terms. Not necessarily about this specific case.

Click to expand...

I was joking, there is no legal recourse due to the fact that the odds are over the entire run, and you can just get unlucky, it's not a guarantee if you open x number of packs that you will pull a particular card.

Man, if I could sue over stated odds it would be every time I got a Big Mac... they say 1-4 wins but I never do...

ThoseBackPages · Oct 14, 2010

leatherman said:
kdailey4315 said:

Just out of curiosity. Lets say that someone buys more than the stated odds of packs and didn't pull said card. Is there any legal recourse for them to go after the card company?

Click to expand...

No way.

Let's say the odds are 1 in 2000 that you will pull an autograph.

If you open 2000 packs:
There is a 36.80% chance you will not pull an autograph.
There is a 36.78% chance you will pull exactly one autograph.
There is a 26.42% chance you will pull more than one auto.

If you open 10000 packs:
There is only a 0.67% chance that you will not pull an auto. If 150 people each open 10000 packs, one person will not receive a single autograph, statistically speaking. It sucks to be that one person, but it happens.

David

Nerd

jam92102 · Oct 14, 2010

sebpoo said:
jam92102 said:

Wow that is crazy!! I mean I guess it's worth a shot every now and then for $13. Another forum I'm on a guy said around 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 cases. There surely is a lot of them still out there.

Click to expand...

:?:
I would like to meet the seller.

Per box, not case. Got two boxes from da card world for 13 bucks a piece.

AmishDave · Oct 14, 2010

I never saw any Auto's outta '90-'92 UD or '92 Score pulled. Never an Elite either, until my buddy broke a box of series 2 Donruss '91 and pulled the Bonds.

Absolutely incredible odds of pulling anything, since there's 800 trillion cases of this stuff out there, still ...

jam92102 · Oct 14, 2010

By the time you spend enough to pull one I'm sure you could've just bought it. I would love to be able to just post a box break of 92 upperdeck and post major mojo!! LOL It'd be awesome for sure!

Sean_C · Oct 15, 2010

That would be pretty cool to be able to do. The ones still in the boxes probably have really nice signatures on them. Most of the ones I've seen in the market have had faded signatures from all of the years in dealers display cases.

Plus, no redemptions. Imagine that!

jam92102 said:
By the time you spend enough to pull one I'm sure you could've just bought it. I would love to be able to just post a box break of 92 upperdeck and post major mojo!! LOL It'd be awesome for sure!

zookerman182 · Oct 15, 2010

i always sue when i pull 5 autos from a box which states on average 1 per box. They said 1 per box and they better mean it. 5 autos, what am i gonna do with 5 autos. Get your odds straight card companies

magicpapa · Oct 15, 2010

55_marlins_sp said:
I never saw any Auto's outta '90-'92 UD or '92 Score pulled. Never an Elite either, until my buddy broke a box of series 2 Donruss '91 and pulled the Bonds.

Absolutely incredible odds of pulling anything, since there's 800 trillion cases of this stuff out there, still ...

i bought several 92 donruss boxes, say like close to a dozen, saw something shiney in a pack and bang......... Griffey elite was hooked on collecting him ever since yea odds were astronomical those were /10,000

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