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From today's edition of Ask BA.
"Archer and Lee definitely would make the Rays Top 10 if we were doing it today. I wouldn't change Tampa Bay's top three prospects (Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings), but I would slot Archer in right behind them at No. 4. He'd bump Jake McGee, Josh Sale and Alex Torres down a notch each, and then I'd come with Lee at No. 8. Alex Colome and Justin O'Conner would round out the Top 10. I'd put Guyer at No. 12, between Drew Vettleson and Jake Thompson.
The influx of those three players, as well as Chirinos (who checked in at No. 16 on our Cubs Top 30 in the Handbook), does give the Rays the second-best farm system in baseball. In our rankings in the Handbook, Tampa Bay was No. 3, behind the Royals and Braves.
As for the Cubs, Brett Jackson would ascend from No. 2 to replace Archer as the system's best prospect, while Alberto Cabrera, Darwin Barney and D.J. LeMahieu would come into the Top 10. Quick scouting reports on the newcomers: Cabrera is a righthander with a 92-97 mph fastball and mid-80s slider; Barney is a proven winner and quality middle-infield defender who plays above his tools; and LeMahieu is the best pure hitter in the system but needs to find more power to make it at third base, his best defensive position.
The remainder of the trade involved exchanging backup outfielders (Fernando Perez to the Cubs, Sam Fuld to the Rays) and Chicago, which has a knack for finding value in previously obscure players in trades, getting minor league lefthander Zach Rosscup. My first reaction was that the Cubs paid more than I thought they'd have to, as Tampa Bay was motivated to trade Garza in order to save money and create a rotation spot for Hellickson. But the Rays did a good job of getting other teams involved in trade talks, which helped drive the price up.
Ultimately, the deal makes sense for both sides. The Rays won't take a hit by replacing Garza in the rotation with Hellickson, and they can spend the $5 million or so they'll save to upgrade other areas. They also added a quality arm who features two plus-plus pitches at times (Archer), one of the few legitimate shortstop prospects in the minors (Lee), two guys who can be valuable reserves if not everyday players (Guyer, Chirinos) and a high-energy bench player (Fuld). Lee does have a better chance of emerging as a starting shortstop in Tampa Bay than in Chicago, though don't underestimate Reid Brignac.
The Cubs didn't give up a single player expected to contribute much to their 2011 team while getting a massive upgrade for their rotation in Garza, who will benefit from moving from the rugged American League East to the much more benign National League. While I do think Chicago overpaid somewhat, prospects aren't sure things. Archer hasn't figured out control and command yet, while Lee has offensive and defensive adjustments to make and is three years away from the majors. Even if Lee realizes his full potential, the Cubs look set at shortstop with Castro. Guyer and Chirinos were similarly redundant with the presence of Jackson and Welington Castillo in the system."
"Archer and Lee definitely would make the Rays Top 10 if we were doing it today. I wouldn't change Tampa Bay's top three prospects (Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings), but I would slot Archer in right behind them at No. 4. He'd bump Jake McGee, Josh Sale and Alex Torres down a notch each, and then I'd come with Lee at No. 8. Alex Colome and Justin O'Conner would round out the Top 10. I'd put Guyer at No. 12, between Drew Vettleson and Jake Thompson.
The influx of those three players, as well as Chirinos (who checked in at No. 16 on our Cubs Top 30 in the Handbook), does give the Rays the second-best farm system in baseball. In our rankings in the Handbook, Tampa Bay was No. 3, behind the Royals and Braves.
As for the Cubs, Brett Jackson would ascend from No. 2 to replace Archer as the system's best prospect, while Alberto Cabrera, Darwin Barney and D.J. LeMahieu would come into the Top 10. Quick scouting reports on the newcomers: Cabrera is a righthander with a 92-97 mph fastball and mid-80s slider; Barney is a proven winner and quality middle-infield defender who plays above his tools; and LeMahieu is the best pure hitter in the system but needs to find more power to make it at third base, his best defensive position.
The remainder of the trade involved exchanging backup outfielders (Fernando Perez to the Cubs, Sam Fuld to the Rays) and Chicago, which has a knack for finding value in previously obscure players in trades, getting minor league lefthander Zach Rosscup. My first reaction was that the Cubs paid more than I thought they'd have to, as Tampa Bay was motivated to trade Garza in order to save money and create a rotation spot for Hellickson. But the Rays did a good job of getting other teams involved in trade talks, which helped drive the price up.
Ultimately, the deal makes sense for both sides. The Rays won't take a hit by replacing Garza in the rotation with Hellickson, and they can spend the $5 million or so they'll save to upgrade other areas. They also added a quality arm who features two plus-plus pitches at times (Archer), one of the few legitimate shortstop prospects in the minors (Lee), two guys who can be valuable reserves if not everyday players (Guyer, Chirinos) and a high-energy bench player (Fuld). Lee does have a better chance of emerging as a starting shortstop in Tampa Bay than in Chicago, though don't underestimate Reid Brignac.
The Cubs didn't give up a single player expected to contribute much to their 2011 team while getting a massive upgrade for their rotation in Garza, who will benefit from moving from the rugged American League East to the much more benign National League. While I do think Chicago overpaid somewhat, prospects aren't sure things. Archer hasn't figured out control and command yet, while Lee has offensive and defensive adjustments to make and is three years away from the majors. Even if Lee realizes his full potential, the Cubs look set at shortstop with Castro. Guyer and Chirinos were similarly redundant with the presence of Jackson and Welington Castillo in the system."
