Jose Bautista...

So last year brought him into the spotlight. I am wondering if he will return to huge power numbers again or if we will see a slump. I am projecting him at 36 HRs.

He is lucky if he gets 30. He had a fluke year. To go from a career high of 17 home runs to 54 home runs in one season, one must speculate. Either, he did roids or his season was a complete fluke.

he had Brady Anderson syndrome and reality will be a brick wall he runs into early this season Im sure.. doubt he'll see as many good pitches with Vernon Wells gone now too.

There was something going on with that blue jays team


http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.shtml


people popping homers left and right

I'm not so sure that he will experience the Brady Wall... Prior to 2010 he never had more than 370 ABs, during which he hit 15 HRs. If you use ratios, had he batted the 569 times that he did this past season, we are looking at an increase of about 7-8 HRs, putting him at 23 HRs that season. He was 27 that season, which experts would agree the magic 27 season should show the largest increase in power. BUT...That season he was also playing for Pittsburgh. What kind of protection is he getting there to see good pitches? His first season in Toronto he only batted 56 times with 3 HRs. Again if you use ratios if he had batted 500 times that year he would have hit over 30 HRs, batting 7th... so put him in the line-up he had last year with his first full season, you would expect 40+ HRs. Now the 54 he hit was definitely unexpected, but using his historical numbers, I think we will see at least 35 from him this year. Will be tough without Wells in the line-up, but most expect him to bat 3rd and combine that with hitting in AL ballparks, you'll get some elevated numbers. So I guess we'll have to just wait and see....

Its either he was destined for big numbers or Dwayne Murphy is one hell of a batting coach.

cgilmo said:

There was something going on with that blue jays team


http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.shtml


people popping homers left and right

Click to expand...

They have a pretty nice stadium and swing for the fences on every pitch. They were simply told to wait on a pitch and clobber it if they see it.

Everything was a fly-ball (43.4%) and they had the best HR/FB ratio in the league (13.6%).

Teams that compete don't exactly have the ability to sit fastball, middle-in, and strike-out if they don't see it.

I really don't think it has anything to do with PEDs, it's just a matter of absolutely no discipline.

I heard somwhere that for the last couple of years he had the highest percentage of foul balls per at bat. Maybe working with Murphy he got his timing a bit better and straightened out some of those foul balls

ahill1 said:

I heard somwhere that for the last couple of years he had the highest percentage of foul balls per at bat. Maybe working with Murphy he got his timing a bit better and straightened out some of those foul balls

Click to expand...

The end of 2009 was also very good for him. From September 1st, he raised his .309 SLG to .408 by the end of the season. He hit something like ten dingers. Six of those were in his last 8 games.

We will see.

cgilmo said:

There was something going on with that blue jays team


http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.shtml


people popping homers left and right

Click to expand...

it was their approach at the plate based on Cito's game plan. you notice guys like Adam Lind and Aaron Hill took massive hits in batting average. Cito's game plan for everyone - go up and swing for the fences. so they did.

i think people will be surprised by the type of year that Bautista puts up next year. Will he hit 50 again? Most likely not. Will he hit 40? It's a possibility. I agree he'll be around 35ish.

this has been stated many times before, he changed his approach and swing at the end of the 2009 season. take a look at his month of september in 2009 compared to the rest of the year. take a look at his winter stats before 2010 season. based off of 12 solid months of consistent production at this level, i see no reason why he'll only hit 15-20 again next year barring injury.

From what I heard, when he was here in Pittsburgh he was reluctant to change a part of his swing. When he got to Toronto they mentioned the same change that was needed, he finally gave in and changed it and now he has a better swing.

I will say 40 homeruns.

He was also tested randomly 3 times last season for the guys who say it has to be ped's!

JzWand said:

I will say 40 homeruns.

He was also tested randomly 3 times last season for the guys who say it has to be ped's!

Click to expand...

There are a lot of problems with MLB's testing program. Just bc someone was tested and passed doesnt really mean anything.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... _95677470/

A change in his swing plus a full season of AB's has made all the difference. I'd say he is good for at least 30-35 dingers.

elmalo said:

JzWand said:

I will say 40 homeruns.

He was also tested randomly 3 times last season for the guys who say it has to be ped's!

Click to expand...

There are a lot of problems with MLB's testing program. Just bc someone was tested and passed doesnt really mean anything.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... _95677470/

Click to expand...

Cool so assuming everyone has access to the same drug and getting around the testing, Bautista was still the best home run hitter by a landslide.
Soooooo, maybe that wont change and he will do 50 again.

Who knows.
Either way, I am thinking about 40 homeruns this coming season!

elmalo said:

JzWand said:

I will say 40 homeruns.

He was also tested randomly 3 times last season for the guys who say it has to be ped's!

Click to expand...

There are a lot of problems with MLB's testing program. Just bc someone was tested and passed doesnt really mean anything.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... _95677470/

Click to expand...

That was written in 2002. There are tests for masking agents, hgh, insulin based, and water based steroids now. IIRC Volquez got caught despite masking and not having used for more than a month.

He's good for at least 20.

markakis8 said:

cgilmo said:

There was something going on with that blue jays team


http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2010.shtml


people popping homers left and right

Click to expand...

it was their approach at the plate based on Cito's game plan. you notice guys like Adam Lind and Aaron Hill took massive hits in batting average. Cito's game plan for everyone - go up and swing for the fences. so they did.

i think people will be surprised by the type of year that Bautista puts up next year. Will he hit 50 again? Most likely not. Will he hit 40? It's a possibility. I agree he'll be around 35ish.

this has been stated many times before, he changed his approach and swing at the end of the 2009 season. take a look at his month of september in 2009 compared to the rest of the year. take a look at his winter stats before 2010 season. based off of 12 solid months of consistent production at this level, i see no reason why he'll only hit 15-20 again next year barring injury.

Click to expand...

Well said.

Cito's game plane and Cito's and Murphy's hitting coach abilities are what helped him. I think he will get 40ish this year.

aaron41984 said:

elmalo said:

JzWand said:

I will say 40 homeruns.

He was also tested randomly 3 times last season for the guys who say it has to be ped's!

Click to expand...

There are a lot of problems with MLB's testing program. Just bc someone was tested and passed doesnt really mean anything.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... _95677470/

Click to expand...

That was written in 2002. There are tests for masking agents, hgh, insulin based, and water based steroids now. IIRC Volquez got caught despite masking and not having used for more than a month.

Click to expand...

I realize when the article is from, but those same things still apply today. And one thing that that article didnt really go into is timing the cycle. You can easily cyle on and off in the off season and be totally clean during the season. Everyone knows how strict the Olympic testing system is, yet they still have an extremely hard time catching athletes. So even with the gold standard testing, i.e the olympics, there are still tons of ways to easily pass the tests.