Maybe It's Just Me, But....

Jaypers · Feb 2, 2011

......I don't believe there was ever an "off-season" for prospects this winter, at least so far.

Normally I'd be able to find some steals of promising prospects' cards over the winter (Nov/Dec/Jan). This time, there were none.

How have you guys fared? Post any steals you found over the past couple of months, and let me live vicariously through you.

ThoseBackPages · Feb 2, 2011

your minions are to blame for that

All The Hype · Feb 2, 2011

I've found that it's been the complete opposite.

So many guys have been on a steady upward incline since late December or early January. Seems like basically all the top prospects (top 25 guys) are going up.

dutchj16 · Feb 2, 2011

ALL_THE_HYPE said:
I've found that it's been the complete opposite.

So many guys have been on a steady upward incline since late December or early January. Seems like basically all the top prospects (top 25 guys) are going up.

This. It has been really frustrating to watch. I keep thinking that the prices will only climb for a little bit with the initial hype and that prices will eventually plateau or even drop only to have the prices keep on rising.

sheetskout · Feb 2, 2011

I'm not sure you all are using the same definition of "steal".

JEA2880 · Feb 2, 2011

Everything I bought in the off season is now quite a bit higher now than then. It might not have been as pronounced a difference as in year's past (i.e. picking up 08 BCD Stanton Auto's for $30-$40 last off season) but I definitely will be capitalizing on many of my buys this spring.

Jedi500 · Feb 2, 2011

Off the top of my head the only real "steal" that I can already capitalize on was picking up 5 jarrod parker autos for $30 a few months ago..

KandKCards · Feb 2, 2011

Jaypers said:
......I don't believe there was ever an "off-season" for prospects this winter, at least so far.

Normally I'd be able to find some steals of promising prospects' cards over the winter (Nov/Dec/Jan). This time, there were none.

How have you guys fared? Post any steals you found over the past couple of months, and let me live vicariously through you.

Same problem. Sure, stuff was cheaper in December than it is now, but even those December prices weren't what I considered buying prices.
I think the attention to prospects lowered the offseason value of star RC autos. I'm hoping those see a big uptick when the season starts. Have grabbed a bunch of Braun and Hanley chromes, among others.

sportscardtheory · Feb 2, 2011

Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg have forever changed the landscape of prospecting. There is too much money to be made for people not to notice. Prospecting used to be a niche, now it's the norm. Demand for prospect cards is at an all-time high.

hail2thevictors · Feb 2, 2011

There have been a ton of great buys throughout the winter, in my opinion. This is the 1st "offseason" I have been through in terms of prospecting, so it's hard for me to compare to prior offseasons-but man, I know I did well over the winter. Some great buys that I can think of off the top of my head:

Mike Trout
Wil Myers
Wilin Rosario(his base chrome autos were $2-$4 for a long time)
Dustin Ackley(I think his base chromes were around $30?)
Jesus Montero(his stuff has steadily climbed, and will continue to IMO)
Jarrod Parker

All of these guys have already seen a doubling in price, with no call up or baseball even played yet.

There are many other guys that I bought in the last few months who have great potential as well. I was very pleased to say the least this offseason.

Adam G · Feb 2, 2011

sportscardtheory said:
Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg have forever changed the landscape of prospecting. There is too much money to be made for people not to notice. Prospecting used to be a niche, now it's the norm. Demand for prospect cards is at an all-time high.

I think this is probably the biggest reason prices have continued to migrate upwards. Also, when a guy like Harper pulls in really big bucks, it makes spending more on other players seem like a good idea. It might also be a sign of the state of the economy.

Jedi500 · Feb 2, 2011

hail2thevictors said:
There have been a ton of great buys throughout the winter, in my opinion. This is the 1st "offseason" I have been through in terms of prospecting, so it's hard for me to compare to prior offseasons-but man, I know I did well over the winter. Some great buys that I can think of off the top of my head:

Mike Trout
Wil Myers
Wilin Rosario(his base chrome autos were $2-$4 for a long time)
Dustin Ackley(I think his base chromes were around $30?)
Jesus Montero(his stuff has steadily climbed, and will continue to IMO)
Jarrod Parker

All of these guys have already seen a doubling in price, with no call up or baseball even played yet.

There are many other guys that I bought in the last few months who have great potential as well. I was very pleased to say the least this offseason.

My lil bro picked up numerous Ackley autos between $25-$30 and I checked the other day and base autos have reached $50 in a few auctions which is already a 75-100% increase from his buy ins..I feel like they are just going to continue to rise due to the fact he will have a great shot of starting this year..

maxpower · Feb 3, 2011

sportscardtheory said:
Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg have forever changed the landscape of prospecting. There is too much money to be made for people not to notice. Prospecting used to be a niche, now it's the norm. Demand for prospect cards is at an all-time high.

This. Too much new money competing for prospects. The game has changed. Money can still be made, but it's on bubble appreciation, whereas in the past, prospect buying was more like finding arbitrage opportunities. Much more of the future appreciation is already priced into the cards now.

Wes · Feb 3, 2011

Up until the past two weeks Montero chromes were selling $55-65 consistently. Now they're near $100.

Strasburg chrome autos were as low as $120 at one point, the last couple have approached $200.

Jarrod Parker stuff was as low as $8 a chrome, now they're in the $15-25 range.

bear0555 · Feb 3, 2011

I think buyers are learning to anticipate the market trends but I'm sure there's more to it. Still some very good buys out there - there's one high ceiling guy I haven't been able to stop buying and it seems like I'm the only one bothering as my low offers are constantly being accepted.

bballcardkid · Feb 3, 2011

bear0555 said:
I think buyers are learning to anticipate the market trends but I'm sure there's more to it. Still some very good buys out there - there's one high ceiling guy I haven't been able to stop buying and it seems like I'm the only one bothering as my low offers are constantly being accepted.

Please share

craiger122003 · Feb 3, 2011

I got a Freddie Freeman Chrome auto a month or so ago 35 dlvd
New price 60 to 70

All The Hype · Feb 3, 2011

It's not that there haven't been "good" buys available with room for growth...it's that there was never really a time when players went down like they have in the past. Usually people forget about baseball once the season is over, leaving only the hardcore prospectors and collectors buying baseball during football/basketball season. In years past, prices have come down across the board because of this.

For example, a card that might have cost $50 during the season might have dropped to $40 in years past, but this year, the $50 card held at $50, turned into $55, $65, and then $90 as we moved closer to the new season. It has certainly been a very different market this year. As mentioned above, I think the Heyward/Strasburg effects have played a major role in this, because people realize that real money can be had if they put their money in the right places at the right time.

Adamsince1981 · Feb 3, 2011

I don't understand the last Colon Sterling Black ref auto that went for $52.

bear0555 · Feb 3, 2011

bballcardkid said:
bear0555 said:

I think buyers are learning to anticipate the market trends but I'm sure there's more to it. Still some very good buys out there - there's one high ceiling guy I haven't been able to stop buying and it seems like I'm the only one bothering as my low offers are constantly being accepted.

Click to expand...

Please share

You know who it is! :lol: Honestly, feel free to stop me because I'd really like to diversify.

ALL_THE_HYPE said:
It's not that there haven't been "good" buys available with room for growth...it's that there was never really a time when players went down like they have in the past. Usually people forget about baseball once the season is over, leaving only the hardcore prospectors and collectors buying baseball during football/basketball season. In years past, prices have come down across the board because of this.

For example, a card that might have cost $50 during the season might have dropped to $40 in years past, but this year, the $50 card held at $50, turned into $55, $65, and then $90 as we moved closer to the new season. It has certainly been a very different market this year. As mentioned above, I think the Heyward/Strasburg effects have played a major role in this, because people realize that real money can be had if they put their money in the right places at the right time.

Very true. While I mostly bought hof game used in the past, I've learned this year that it is okay to buy prospects at release.

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