The FCB Top 25 Prospects in Sports Cards

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

Hey guys, just finished up the list for the blog,

Here is how it turned out

http://www.freedomcardboard.com/?tag=fcb-top-25

discuss!

Jaypers · Feb 3, 2011

I don't think anyone will give you Hell for that list.

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

Jaypers said:
I don't think anyone will give you Hell for that list.

I expect fans of Dustin Ackley and Hellickson to do so. I don't like what I have seen of Ackley, and I think Hellickson has a low ceiling.

Both just missed.

Yes, I like Gibson and Miller better than Hellickson

pigskincardboard · Feb 3, 2011

Aren't Gibson and Hellickson like the same person? I thought Gibson's ceiling was that of Hellickson, to be honest. Maybe I'm asleep at the wheel. Gibson looks like a pitcher and has some extra inches, but I sorta see that negated by his minor injury.

What are we projecting out of Gibson? I think Hellickson is terribly undervalued by the *prospecting* community, and a bit overrated by the *baseball* community. They're both #1B or 2s, no?

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

pigskincardboard said:
Aren't Gibson and Hellickson like the same person? I thought Gibson's ceiling was that of Hellickson, to be honest. Maybe I'm asleep at the wheel. Gibson looks like a pitcher and has some extra inches, but I sorta see that negated by his minor injury.

What are we projecting out of Gibson? I think Hellickson is terribly undervalued by the *prospecting* community, and a bit overrated by the *baseball* community. They're both #1B or 2s, no?

Gibson was the best pitcher from his draft class not named Strasburg. IMO, he's seriously underrated right now. As far as Hellickson goes I have been wrong before, but I've seen him pitch a few times and just don't see a star.

I see someone who excels early, but gets knocked around as people know more about him.

pigskincardboard · Feb 3, 2011

cgilmo said:
pigskincardboard said:

Aren't Gibson and Hellickson like the same person? I thought Gibson's ceiling was that of Hellickson, to be honest. Maybe I'm asleep at the wheel. Gibson looks like a pitcher and has some extra inches, but I sorta see that negated by his minor injury.

What are we projecting out of Gibson? I think Hellickson is terribly undervalued by the *prospecting* community, and a bit overrated by the *baseball* community. They're both #1B or 2s, no?

Click to expand...

Gibson was the best pitcher from his draft class not named Strasburg. IMO, he's seriously underrated right now. As far as Hellickson goes I have been wrong before, but I've seen him pitch a few times and just don't see a star.

I see someone who excels early, but gets knocked around as people know more about him.

I really don't know what your expectations are for Hellickson. Control guys (although he did touch 94-95ish) with three-to-four good pitches don't seem to bring the buzz. Of course it's a small sample size, but there's basically no reason to believe that Hellickson can't maintain around a 4ish K:BB.

Pitchers that keep their K:BB above 3 succeed. There's basically no if, ands, or buts.

Fastball-Change guys never get hyped. I think as Hellickson develops and works his fastball around a bit more, he'll be very good.

Then again, Danny Haren is one hell of a pitcher but gets no hobby love.

I just Gibson at his best looking pretty similar to Hellickson, other than plane.

markakis8 · Feb 3, 2011

cgilmo said:
pigskincardboard said:

Aren't Gibson and Hellickson like the same person? I thought Gibson's ceiling was that of Hellickson, to be honest. Maybe I'm asleep at the wheel. Gibson looks like a pitcher and has some extra inches, but I sorta see that negated by his minor injury.

What are we projecting out of Gibson? I think Hellickson is terribly undervalued by the *prospecting* community, and a bit overrated by the *baseball* community. They're both #1B or 2s, no?

Click to expand...

Gibson was the best pitcher from his draft class not named Strasburg. IMO, he's seriously underrated right now. As far as Hellickson goes I have been wrong before, but I've seen him pitch a few times and just don't see a star.

I see someone who excels early, but gets knocked around as people know more about him.

AKA Zach Duke?

pigskincardboard · Feb 3, 2011

markakis8 said:
cgilmo said:

pigskincardboard said:

Aren't Gibson and Hellickson like the same person? I thought Gibson's ceiling was that of Hellickson, to be honest. Maybe I'm asleep at the wheel. Gibson looks like a pitcher and has some extra inches, but I sorta see that negated by his minor injury.

What are we projecting out of Gibson? I think Hellickson is terribly undervalued by the *prospecting* community, and a bit overrated by the *baseball* community. They're both #1B or 2s, no?

Click to expand...

Gibson was the best pitcher from his draft class not named Strasburg. IMO, he's seriously underrated right now. As far as Hellickson goes I have been wrong before, but I've seen him pitch a few times and just don't see a star.

I see someone who excels early, but gets knocked around as people know more about him.

Click to expand...

AKA Zach Duke?

Big Difference.

K-Rate.
BB-Rate.
LOB%
HR/FB.
and about 4mph.

markakis8 · Feb 3, 2011

pigskincardboard said:
markakis8 said:

cgilmo said:

pigskincardboard said:

Aren't Gibson and Hellickson like the same person? I thought Gibson's ceiling was that of Hellickson, to be honest. Maybe I'm asleep at the wheel. Gibson looks like a pitcher and has some extra inches, but I sorta see that negated by his minor injury.

What are we projecting out of Gibson? I think Hellickson is terribly undervalued by the *prospecting* community, and a bit overrated by the *baseball* community. They're both #1B or 2s, no?

Click to expand...

Gibson was the best pitcher from his draft class not named Strasburg. IMO, he's seriously underrated right now. As far as Hellickson goes I have been wrong before, but I've seen him pitch a few times and just don't see a star.

I see someone who excels early, but gets knocked around as people know more about him.

Click to expand...

AKA Zach Duke?

Click to expand...

Big Difference.

K-Rate.
BB-Rate.
LOB%
HR/FB.
and about 4mph.

Jaret Wright and Livan Hernandez

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

Comparisons suck, and I'm not gonna use em to describe Hellickson.

chompsmcgee · Feb 3, 2011

Thanks for putting this together.

I have no gripes about excluding Ackley as he still has a lot to prove to doubters, and the defense and base-stealing is still work in progress. But in the same respect, why Tim Tebow is so high?

I'm assuming his cards have been hot sellers since they came out although he hasn't shown any glimpses of greatness at the pro level that some of these other NFL and NBA guys have. As mentioned, he's the most polarizing figure on the list but he's also the least talented at his craft. I'm sure there are tons of Tebow-fanboys but I wouldn't put him in the top-10 of NFL youngsters much less top-10 of all sports.

f2tornado · Feb 3, 2011

chompsmcgee said:
But in the same respect, why Tim Tebow is so high?

I'm assuming his cards have been hot sellers since they came out although he hasn't shown any glimpses of greatness at the pro level that some of these other NFL and NBA guys have. As mentioned, he's the most polarizing figure on the list but he's also the least talented at his craft. I'm sure there are tons of Tebow-fanboys but I wouldn't put him in the top-10 of NFL youngsters much less top-10 of all sports.

I'm not on the Tebow bandwagon but keep in mind the guy didn't get an opportunity to start until the end of the season. It is hard to show greatness when you don't get much of a chance to display it. Tebow is popular but also has a lot of doubters. If Tebow proves even a fraction of the doubters wrong there will be significant upside in his card prices. I've never thought of Roethlisberger as a highly skilled QB but gotta give the guy credit. All he does is win. That is exactly what Tebow did in Florida. One nice thing with Tebow cards is there isn't huge risk. If the guy was carted off the field with a career ending injury the first game of next season there will still be a fair number people looking for his autograph. If the same type of injury happened to Dez Bryant his card prices would completely collapse. Writing this has tempted me to purchase some Tebow cards.

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

This list isn't a talent evaluation. It's about current and potential. Tebow has a higher ceiling than anyone in sports.

sdsportsfan1214 · Feb 3, 2011

cgilmo said:
This list isn't a talent evaluation. It's about current and potential. Tebow has a higher ceiling than anyone in sports.

debateable id think a baseball player would have a higher ceiling then a football player like a Montero or Harper

imac220 · Feb 3, 2011

Mikey Mantle?

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

sdsportsfan1214 said:
cgilmo said:

This list isn't a talent evaluation. It's about current and potential. Tebow has a higher ceiling than anyone in sports.

Click to expand...

debateable id think a baseball player would have a higher ceiling then a football player like a Montero or Harper

The top end in other sports have and can outsell baseball players. Hockey has as much dollars per card on the high end than any sport.

sdsportsfan1214 · Feb 3, 2011

cgilmo said:
sdsportsfan1214 said:

cgilmo said:

This list isn't a talent evaluation. It's about current and potential. Tebow has a higher ceiling than anyone in sports.

Click to expand...

debateable id think a baseball player would have a higher ceiling then a football player like a Montero or Harper

Click to expand...

The top end in other sports have and can outsell baseball players. Hockey has as much dollars per card on the high end than any sport.

That is true with the crazy prices that have been seen from non baseball guys like say Lebron and Crosby. I guess im just not sold on Tebow ever reaching anything above a decent quarterback

cgilmo · Feb 3, 2011

sdsportsfan1214 said:
cgilmo said:

sdsportsfan1214 said:

cgilmo said:

This list isn't a talent evaluation. It's about current and potential. Tebow has a higher ceiling than anyone in sports.

Click to expand...

debateable id think a baseball player would have a higher ceiling then a football player like a Montero or Harper

Click to expand...

The top end in other sports have and can outsell baseball players. Hockey has as much dollars per card on the high end than any sport.

Click to expand...

That is true with the crazy prices that have been seen from non baseball guys like say Lebron and Crosby. I guess im just not sold on Tebow ever reaching anything above a decent quarterback

That is why he is 10 and not 1

Wes · Feb 3, 2011

cgilmo said:
sdsportsfan1214 said:

cgilmo said:

This list isn't a talent evaluation. It's about current and potential. Tebow has a higher ceiling than anyone in sports.

Click to expand...

debateable id think a baseball player would have a higher ceiling then a football player like a Montero or Harper

Click to expand...

The top end in other sports have and can outsell baseball players. Hockey has as much dollars per card on the high end than any sport.

If Harper becomes the best player in baseball that will change. I'm gonna piss a lot of people off and play the race card and say that if Albert Pujols was white his cards would sell for a hell of a lot more than they already do. As irrelevant as things like race, size and looks are in baseball, they have a measurable impact on hobby values. See: Miguel Cabrera vs. David Wright 2008 pricing.

f2tornado · Feb 3, 2011

LLWesMan said:
cgilmo said:

If Harper becomes the best player in baseball that will change. I'm gonna piss a lot of people off and play the race card and say that if Albert Pujols was white his car to be a cards would sell for a hell of a lot more than they already do. As irrelevant as things like race, size and looks are in baseball, they have a measurable impact on hobby values. See: Miguel Cabrera vs. David Wright 2008 pricing.

Click to expand...

White guys, black guys all get hobby love. Griffey might be the most collected player in history. Cabrera is a wife beating ****** bag. Perhaps that hurts his value. I think it has more to do with U.S. born players versus Latin/Caribbean imports. There is a hometown hero factor. I'm comfortable stating half the allure of Joe Mauer in Minnesota is Joe Mauer being from Minnesota.

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