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Martin Perez - Hold or sell (Any help appreciated)

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rymflaherty

New member
Aug 7, 2008
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So I know an awful lot about cards.....but in terms of baseball and prospects my knowledge pails in comparison to many of those on this board - so any help here would be greatly appreciated.

I'm asking this question because I have an Orange Perez Auto 25/25.
I tried selling after release but had a NPB that tied it up and then prices went down quite a bit so I held on.
I checked Ebay today and saw that an Orange recently sold for $275 - which was a high price after the initial release.
Knowing that and that I may be able to get $200+ right now is why I created a thread.

Not sure if it's a no-brainer to sell now or simply a "safe" move? What the potential value of a card like that would be if he has a great year and when he does get called up?
Since I'm unsure of all those things I figured it was best to ask the experts. Thanks in advance to anyone who offers any help/opinions.
 

sheetskout

New member
Administrator
Aug 10, 2008
5,385
0
Milwaukee, WI
There is absolutely no reason to sell at this specific moment. Other than if you really need the money.

(Wait a couple of weeks)
 

emarc27

New member
Oct 6, 2010
400
0
NYC-->St. Louis
i have a bowman chromew auto of him and personally im holding. the kid is 19 years old. im gonna wait for all that hype that surrounded him when he signed to come back, then sell
 

JEA2880

New member
Aug 16, 2008
3,994
0
Connecticut
He's a crazy good prospect. Despite some struggles at times last year, he's still been incredibly successful at such a young age. I'd hold.
 

SamHell

New member
Jun 12, 2010
1,612
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Texas
Don't really have a clue what his card prices might do but I have noticed them coming back up. I don't if they have reached the prices at 2010 Bowman release. I do know he will start the year in AA again. He wasn't very effective this winter pitching in Venezuela. He pitched 18 innings, walked 11 and had a 6.50 ERA. Reports were that he basically went through the same problems he had all year in AA. Not attacking hitters, spotty control and high pitch counts. The velocity and movement were there. He will turn 20 at the start of the season so he will still be young for AA. Even if he pitched effectively, I can't see them bringing him up in 2011. The Rangers have a bunch of older prospects in AA & AAA that would get the call before him. Spring training 2012 could be his coming out party if he pitches well. The Rangers will have some openings in the rotation with perhaps Wilson and Lewis both leaving in Free agency. Most of the prospect lists still have him in the 15-30 range so with a good year and some graduations of the guys in front of him, he could jump back up into the top 10.
 

rymflaherty

New member
Aug 7, 2008
3,716
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Thanks SamHell for the in depth analysis and thanks everybody else that commented.

I'll probably hold for a couple weeks then as someone mentioned and then make a decision.
For the time being I'll just be happy it looks like his stuff bumped back up (so at least selling is a good option).....I know it's an isolated sale so maybe I wouldn't get $275 - but checking after Bowman cooled off they seemed to be in the $120-150 range. So it's quite a difference.
 

aaron41984

New member
Jun 22, 2009
1,931
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Can we see a scan? It sounds like you aren't necessarily too hung up on the card and you might get a good offer here with no npb/listing/fees to worry about. With reports coming out of Venezuela not as positive as one would hope, odds are against consistent domination. Prospecting is very fickle in this type of situation but if you wait, you basically have to bank on a BA Hot Sheet appearance and if for some reason you forget to check, you may miss the temporary spike.

The way I see it you have a number in mind that would be satisfactory in return for the card. Why not take it to the transactions board?
 

Ian Stewart

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
2,843
0
http://benandjordanscard.blogspot.com/

This guy has great stuff, he's not American comes from a little of a different background and brings great stuff with him. He has struggled though were he played so I doubt the rangers will call him up soon. He's young and talented. But the key word is talented think of this he's a good banana that's not ripe yet. He's got the stuff just needs the expirence. In the card market right now not a good buy for short term imvestment. Long term investment look into it.
 

MichaelStanton2010

New member
Feb 14, 2010
271
0
Perez is a tricky one...been advanced quickly through the system very rapidly, always one of the younger players at his level, very high ERA last year as well as high BB to K ratio. Has above average stuff(mid 90's fastball, solid curve, decent change) I still think it is too early to sell. Hopefully they keep him at AA! I have a bunch also and will be paying close attention to how he performs in the first few months. If they start him at AA and he continues to have command issues, I will be unloading and moving on despite his young age.
 

carrsallstars

Member
Sep 16, 2009
846
0
I agree that if the price is right now- sell. Otherwise you are most likely committing to a long term hold on him to get back to this price point. Was just thinking about him and his age and walk rate and minor league career this far- and I can't see him getting MLB action in 2011. You've got to hope that he dominates in AA and then maybe AAA in the second half and moves up to teh top of the prospect lists for 2012.
 

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