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The market effects of one big sale

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Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
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Think this is worth noting.

At times when a player is doing well and prices are increasing, an auction or two will see a significant price jump. I am not talking about times when the increase is spurred on by a huge event (like a no-hitter or crazy hot streak) which pushes prices up, more where there's a somewhat gradual, but clear increase. Then what happens (sometimes) is a couple of snipes, or a buyer believing prices still have a long way up to go and wanting to make sure that they get in and pay higher knock prices on an auction or two a lot higher than they were, even with the increases.

What ends up happening is that the increased prices bring out many more sellers at the same time as they drive down the demand of buyers, (I know, I know, basic economics, but sometimes the obvious gets overlooked.) What ends up happening though is that most of those items don't sell (especially when the vast majority are BIN/BO's at or above the price the last one sold for) and it often provides a decent chance to buy in since the supply has been bumped up and the sellers who realize they are not going to get offers at the prices they were hoping for, often consider taking less (especially as other listings end unsold.) This pays off when the supply dries up again (the slew of unsold listings discourage others from listing their items) the market "stabilizes" and continues its movement upwards (assuming the impetus has not disappeared.)
 

ljw29

New member
Feb 3, 2010
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I have noticed a certain AL East Pitcher has had a lot more listings lately
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
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170
ljw29 said:
I have noticed a certain AL East Pitcher has had a lot more listings lately
Lester is the one who has recently followed this pattern and IMO over the next couple of weeks prices will level off a decent amount, but then could very well continue the increases (albeit not at the rate they were going before.) It's a pattern I have seen a number of times, and is one that can indicate a chance to buy in on the cheap for those who pick up on it.
 

ljw29

New member
Feb 3, 2010
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I still think money can be made off Lester if the Red Sox have a good year, but then again that is just me.
 

EricInCT

New member
Jan 8, 2009
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ljw29 said:
I still think money can be made off Lester if the Red Sox have a good year, but then again that is just me.


that is one high buy-in though, I think there are better ROIs.
 

ljw29

New member
Feb 3, 2010
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EricInCT said:
ljw29 said:
I still think money can be made off Lester if the Red Sox have a good year, but then again that is just me.


that is one high buy-in though, I think there are better ROIs.

Agreed just noticing the sudden influx of his items on Ebay
 

pigskincardboard

New member
Nov 4, 2009
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Toronto
I think Lester has the Cy Young locked up barring injury. There's always better investments for ROI, but they also carry a lot more risk.

I'm a huge stat-geek and love Lester to death.
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
170
ljw29 said:
I still think money can be made off Lester if the Red Sox have a good year, but then again that is just me.
I did not want to mention Lester by name since the goal was to provide a perspective on the market rather than "pimping" my guy, especially since I think that with Lester more depends on his performance than on the market just riding up (while I do think the market will continue going up, once the season starts it will all depend on how he is doing. If it was earlier in the offseason I think he could have had steady increases for months.)

EricInCT said:
ljw29 said:
I still think money can be made off Lester if the Red Sox have a good year, but then again that is just me.

that is one high buy-in though, I think there are better ROIs.

Depends on how much you are paying. I think many of his cards will sell reasonably in the next couple of weeks as the higher listings that are up now (and the glut of listings) largely end with no bidders. Of course all it takes is a couple of people buying in now to change that, but that is how I anticipate the market going in the next couple of weeks. Guess we'll see...
 

sigma_chi

New member
Apr 14, 2010
2,104
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NE Arkansas/SEMO
pigskincardboard said:
I think Lester has the Cy Young locked up barring injury. There's always better investments for ROI, but they also carry a lot more risk.

I'm a huge stat-geek and love Lester to death.

:lol: Let's not get carried away here...locked up? I think last year's winner Felix would have something to say about that. Sure he has a good chance if he stays healthy but I wouldn't say it was an open and shut case.
 

beefycheddar

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
8,055
0
sigma_chi said:
pigskincardboard said:
I think Lester has the Cy Young locked up barring injury. There's always better investments for ROI, but they also carry a lot more risk.

I'm a huge stat-geek and love Lester to death.

:lol: Let's not get carried away here...locked up? I think last year's winner Felix would have something to say about that. Sure he has a good chance if he stays healthy but I wouldn't say it was an open and shut case.

I agree, plus let's say Buchholz has another good season he will take votes away from Lester. If he had been healthy all year last year, he was the Red Sox best pitcher.
 

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