PSA 10 versus BGS 9.5s for Prospects

With all the chatter about PSA 10 versus BGS 9.5 and which one is selling better, I decided to do a bit of random sampling. I tried to take some bigger names and frequently traded prospect cards to make that comparison. I picked 5 cards at random that I could find samples of both PSA and BGS sales. Amazingly, it came out that twice PSAs were higher and twice BGS' were higher and once they were equivalent.

No big conclusions from my random analysis other than, the world isn't ending for BGS, nor are PSA 10s worthless in the prospect world

Other thoughts?

Starlin Castro Bowman Chrome Auto: BGS higher
[phil:24ruxuth]110663007257[/phil:24ruxuth] - PSA - $66
[phil:24ruxuth]220757614936[/phil:24ruxuth] - BGS - $78

Heyward BCDP: PSA Higher
[phil:24ruxuth]160563047461[/phil:24ruxuth] - PSA - $40
[phil:24ruxuth]120698185290[/phil:24ruxuth] - BGS - $22

Betances Chrome Auto: BGS Higher
[phil:24ruxuth]380326168198[/phil:24ruxuth] - PSA - $37
[phil:24ruxuth]130494787937[/phil:24ruxuth] - BGS - $46

Montero Chrome Auto: Equivalent
[phil:24ruxuth]110663011964[/phil:24ruxuth] - PSA - $108
[phil:24ruxuth]320675445711[/phil:24ruxuth] - BGS - $105

Lincecum Chrome Auto: PSA Higher
[phil:24ruxuth]220754778928[/phil:24ruxuth] - PSA - $225
[phil:24ruxuth]160559567845[/phil:24ruxuth] - BGS - $178

at one point, i saw those topps chrome redemption refractor's of buster posey's psa 10's outselling bgs 9.5 almost 3 to 1...

haven't checked recently but that's what i remember and thinking "damn~"

dave

I was getting $45 for my PSA 10 Rendons. I believe BGS 9.5 were at $35.

MantMaris said:

I was getting $45 for my PSA 10 Rendons. I believe BGS 9.5 were at $35.

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I think with small populations PSA will outsell BGS due to the crazy registry collectors but it seems like once there is plenty on the market, its hard to tell the difference.

In the case of the Posey Refs, I think the first 10 might outsell the first 9.5 but I don't know about the 100th.

Weren't some of the 2008 BDPP Posey PSA 10s going for $340+ while BGS 9.5 were around $200?

bradical said:

Weren't some of the 2008 BDPP Posey PSA 10s going for $340+ while BGS 9.5 were around $200?

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I do recall that as well and my point wasn't to say that in some cases PSA 10s wouldn't outsell BGS 9.5s by significant margins. I'm sure that both will, my point was just that in the random sample that I took of these cards there really wasn't a consistent trend either way.

masonphillip said:

I do recall that as well and my point wasn't to say that in some cases PSA 10s wouldn't outsell BGS 9.5s by significant margins. I'm sure that both will, my point was just that in the random sample that I took of these cards there really wasn't a consistent trend either way.

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Totally agree. BGS is and always been my main choice for grading. Personally, I find more value in their grading as they break out the flaws present on each card (I could do without an Auto grade). PSA has a more dedicated core group of collectors, so when a card reaches the threshold that Posey's 2008 BDPP reached last year, there is almost an extra multiplier present in value related to the PSA10 vs BGS 9.5.

If possible, run your experiment against any prospect cards that are chosen for this week's Hot List. If there are PSA 10 vs BGS 9.5 cards that are heating up, I would bet that the PSAs are outselling the BGS in each instance.

bradical said:

masonphillip said:

I do recall that as well and my point wasn't to say that in some cases PSA 10s wouldn't outsell BGS 9.5s by significant margins. I'm sure that both will, my point was just that in the random sample that I took of these cards there really wasn't a consistent trend either way.

Click to expand...

Totally agree. BGS is and always been my main choice for grading. Personally, I find more value in their grading as they break out the flaws present on each card (I could do without an Auto grade). PSA has a more dedicated core group of collectors, so when a card reaches the threshold that Posey's 2008 BDPP reached last year, there is almost an extra multiplier present in value related to the PSA10 vs BGS 9.5.

If possible, run your experiment against any prospect cards that are chosen for this week's Hot List. If there are PSA 10 vs BGS 9.5 cards that are heating up, I would bet that the PSAs are outselling the BGS in each instance.

Click to expand...

Good thought, I'll test that out.

masonphillip said:

No big conclusions from my random analysis other than, the world isn't ending for BGS, nor are PSA 10s worthless in the prospect world

Other thoughts?

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I think the conclusion should be that once a player becomes established(Heyward & Lincecum can be used from your examples), that PSA might outsell BGS more often then not. I'd assume that'd be because once a player becomes established the guys who do registry sets start buying up the players PSA 10's. I also think it's possible that ones the registry guys stop buying up the PSA 10's that BGS will probably overtake the PSA's again. Lastly I think that in the end, if the player stays good long enough, they'll both pretty much be equal the majority of the time. That's my opinion at least.