When our modern becomes vintage

ffgameman · Apr 24, 2011

This thought occurred to me a few nights ago.

How will collectors view our current era in 30-40 years when our "modern" cards become "vintage"? Our vintage today consists of mainly base sets, with the occasional short prints and sticker insert sets. We place high priority on both authenticity, condition, and eye-appeal.

Assume the time period being discussed for "modern" is the late-80s until today. What will future collectors (and even ourselves) think of:

- The 90s insert fad
- Parallels and numbered cards
- Game-used; including the overabundance of them today
- Autographs
- Chrome
- The "RC" logo
- Etc

How do you think our "modern" will be remembered (and collected) in the distant future?

tonsofcommons · Apr 24, 2011

Baseball cards, along with everything else, will be destroyed in 2012.

HAHA.

gracecollector · Apr 24, 2011

Predictions...

Most things will go down in value

Quality game used will always be appealing - nice patches will still be loved

1/1's from the late 90's will be highly valued

Rarity is a good thing for value long run, will help some inserts and parallels. I can see things like Moments and Milestones, Leaf Sportscasters, Topps Tek, and Studio Portraits that collectors see as a pain now but not overly valuable doing well

Vintage pre-war game used sets/cards will be highly regarded as less items are available to make new vintage GU cards

Base Topps sets from the 2000's will be more valuable than other base sets, as the continuality of Topps being the only brand during some of these years will have an effect in popularity

Bowman chrome rookie cards should be the gold standard RC from these years

RC logo will mean little, collectors will want first issued as always

Razor / Just and unlicensed years UD will be mostly worthless

uniquebaseballcards · Apr 24, 2011

gracecollector said:
RC logo will mean little, collectors will want first issued as always

Razor / Just and unlicensed years UD will be mostly worthless

These cancel each other out mostly because a player's first issued card isn't always licensed or completely licensed (MLBP, MLB, *and* MLBPA).

Further of the most popular VINTAGE cards of all time when there were *choices other* than Topps, almost *none* are the player's first issued card including Mantle's most popular card. Modern cards of the last dozen years are going to follow vintage in that respect, we're seeing it already.

Today's licensing arrangement will start to turn people off...including MLBP licensing of MiLB players. Proper licensing will become important for the cards that ARE licensed - and only fully licensed cards - MLBP, MLB *and* MLBPA together will matter most. Although people are still going to want whatever card looks best and carries the most nostalgia for them regardless of licensing - - licensing that allows a manufacturer to misrepresent a player will not be tolerated because it symbolized greed.

People in the future will know that almost nobody today would've had ANY (modern) Bowman cards if it wasn't for the MLBP license; people in the future will know the MLBP license gave a new, huge boost to cards of minor league players and the MiLB, and as a result **Bowman is going to look like Topps Debut in twenty years**. This transition will happen more as big time players, such as Josh Hamilton, who are artificially shown as a member of a MLB team he never made the roster of (Rays), will really start turning people off; plus people will start to respect MiLB and a player's accurate playing history for a change.

People in the future will seek an old card of a player in his MiLB uni because, if he's any good, he'll already have TONS of cards produced of him in MLB unis even after he retires. They'll scoff at Bowman's MLBP license citing its inaccuracy.

But in 20 years technology will enable people to replicate the cards of today and yesterday, making them worthless anyway

cgilmo · Apr 24, 2011

Yes unique. In the future all people will be as enlightened as you. You are clearly ahead of your time.

scotty21690 · Apr 24, 2011

Man, that is weird to think about. :?

uniquebaseballcards · Apr 24, 2011

cgilmo said:
Yes unique. In the future all people will be as enlightened as you. You are clearly ahead of your time.

Yes, I forgot to add that in the future people will laugh at the lack of hobby transparency and the extent purveyors of cards attempted to influence collectors

If you want you can borrow my DeLorean, I'm done with it now.

mwashuc06 · Apr 24, 2011

uniquebaseballcards said:
cgilmo said:

Yes unique. In the future all people will be as enlightened as you. You are clearly ahead of your time.

Click to expand...

Yes, I forgot to add that in the future people will laugh at the lack of hobby transparency and the extent purveyors of cards attempted to influence collectors

If you want you can borrow my DeLorean, I'm done with it now.

So in the future if people want someone in their minor league uni or HS uni it may make Elite more popular.

Krom · Apr 24, 2011

uniquebaseballcards said:
People in the future will know that almost nobody today would've had ANY (modern) Bowman cards if it wasn't for the MLBP license; people in the future will know the MLBP license gave a new, huge boost to cards of minor league players and the MiLB, and as a

What is your obsession with this?

Click to expand...

nosterbor · Apr 24, 2011

" The 90s insert fad "
you do not research ebay sales much do you! and i take it you do not have a Player collection. therefore you must be a prospector.

P_Manning 18 · Apr 24, 2011

Will todays cards ever become "vintage"

When I started collection in 1986...the stuff from the 50s-70s is what I considered vintage. Now I still that era as vintage. Thinking in 1986... 20 years before that was 1966 and that was vintage. Now its 2011... 20 years ago was 1991... that is far from vintage to me. With the internet you can get anything you want in a matter of days. With so many products being printed year after year you have way too much available for it to become rare/vintage.

Philip J. Fry · Apr 24, 2011

Well according to the 2011 Topps Chrome sell sheet, 1996 Topps design is already considered vintage.

predatorkj · Apr 25, 2011

nosterbor said:
" The 90s insert fad "
you do not research ebay sales much do you! and i take it you do not have a Player collection. therefore you must be a prospector.

He's actually got a point. I've noticed upticks on Bagwell cards I already own from this era as well as those for other players. More people are buying them and I'd be hard pressed to believe they are all Bagwell collectors(or collectors of that specific player). Hell, half the time somebody here posts a link and now all of a sudden we have a bunch of 90's insert weekend warrior set collectors. Its certainly grown. I know. Its what I started collecting when I got back into the hobby because I was able to get a lot of the GU and auto cards and I was also easily able to obtain cards I had in my youth. My agenda was to get cards from those lost years. The mid-late 90's. Now, I tend to shy away unless its of my player collection because we have to many hands dipping in the pie. Its okay. While everyone else is doing that, I'll gladly collect other years. And when everyone has their fill, I'll come back. I've got all the time in the world.

D-Lite · Apr 25, 2011

I think the late 80's to early 90's will always be seen as the flood years.

nosterbor · Apr 25, 2011

D-Lite said:
I think the late 80's to early 90's will always be seen as the flood years.

88-92 cards were sold everywhere! in very high quanitity!

gracecollector · Apr 25, 2011

nosterbor said:
D-Lite said:

I think the late 80's to early 90's will always be seen as the flood years.

Click to expand...

88-92 cards were sold everywhere! in very high quanitity!

That's his point. As in the late 80's / early 90's cards are flooding the market and demand will never outpace supply, even 50 years from now.

uniquebaseballcards said:
gracecollector said:

RC logo will mean little, collectors will want first issued as always

Razor / Just and unlicensed years UD will be mostly worthless

Click to expand...

These cancel each other out mostly because a player's first issued card isn't always licensed or completely licensed (MLBP, MLB, *and* MLBPA).

Not in my opinion. I think future collectors will want first issued card from an established brand (1st Bowman Chrome, UD USA sets, Donruss Elite), while largely ignoring secondary brands like Razor, Just, Team Best.

ffgameman · Apr 25, 2011

nosterbor said:
" The 90s insert fad "
you do not research ebay sales much do you! and i take it you do not have a Player collection. therefore you must be a prospector.

Prospector? I'm about from as far as a prospector as you can get.

And I do have a 90's player collection. Fad wasn't the best word - maybe "obsession" or is a better one, because some collector's do obsess of 90's inserts. As collectors we all have our own obsessions.

rymflaherty · Apr 25, 2011

The cards I've questioned or would be concerned about in terms of losing value in the future are probably the parallels.

When I say parallel - I'm really talking any of the numerous sets that contain 5-6 versions of a card where the only real difference is the serial stamping and maybe a change in color on the foil. This may not be as big an issue in some Baseball releases, but I know it is fairly prevalent in Football and Basketball.
I question if these cards may wind up lumped together, as whether it's #'d 50, 100 or 10 they are essentially the same card.
To a lesser degree I've also felt the same thing about auto's especially sticker auto's.
While auto's are usually fairly limited - if you look at the total number including parallels and add the auto's over the various products/years, the numbers rise substantially for a lot of players.......and again, I wonder if 20 years from now, it will be fairly easy to find an auto of many of these guys and an auto will be an auto, with prices coming down and meeting at a lower point (outside of maybe whatever card or two as seen as a definitive rc or from some sort of landmark set).

fkw · Apr 25, 2011

Modern cant become vintage...

Vintage = Early
ie cards obtained FREE with a product or service of some kind, .....were originally collected and played with for FUN Only (not profit). Most vintage cards were thus damaged or completely destroyed over time creating "true scarcity", ....not preconceived manufactured pseudoscarcity, like 1/1s of today. Todays cards will survive with 99.9% in NRMT conditon, .......vintage PreWar is more like .9% NRMT

Id call this Era the "Shinny hyped 1/1 non-gum Era" The Era where collectors STOPPED buying packs of gum cards to try to complete a set. The majority (adults) buy only to try to hit a 1/1 and flip for profit.... Never will be "vintage", and will not hold good value (for these factors alone) in the future..... IMO

Modern cards = Beanie Babies, Franklin Mint crap, Collector Plates, Starting Linup, etc.
"stuff" horded away for your sons college education, will not become what you think it will... because everyone is doing it...

mmier118 · Apr 25, 2011

I thought this was a really interesting question. And to be honest I have a hard time predicting what will be popular next year so my prediction for 39 yrs down the road may sound silly. I could see further consolodation in the hobby, I think there will always be a market for cards but when I think about why people enjoy collecting cards now there are several reasons. Some people enjoy the gambling aspect of trying to pull a valuable card (rippers), some people enjoy the aspect of trying to "outsmart" the market and load up on the next big thing (prospectors). Some people enjoy the challenge of building a set (heritage) and others like to reconnect with a simpler time in there youth when they didn't have to worry about work, their mortgage, saving enough to retire etc. How will these aspects play into determining the value of our modern stuff in the future?

The rippers will still be ripping the new stuff and won't be interested in the older stuff. The prospectors will be looking at the new stuff trying to find the next hot thing. The set builders may still have interest in older sets. If heritage is still a successfull brand that means they'd be reprinting todays cards 40 yrs from now with new players, and honestly when I'm 70 I might sell my 2010 topps set to buy that crap lol. And I really don't think too many kids today will be buying modern stuff to reconnect with there childhood. They will be buying vintage PS3's and unopened rare versions of whatever video game or the first I-phone / I-pad brand new and in the box etc. That will be what connects them to their youth. This means most of the modern stuff will turn to junk with the limited autographed rookies and very nice jersey cards etc. of the players people still care about holding value or slightly appreciating when compared to inflation. It will be whatever still appeals to the smaller number of collectors out there. So your Michal Jordan's Albert Pujol's etc may hang in there but honestly I think 97 percent of modern stuff will be junk and everyone will wish there mom threw it out lol. But that still doesn't make collecting these things any less fun for me. I enjoy cards for all of the reasons I listed above and will collect them until I don't find that type of joy out of them anymore.

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