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Deep dive into Starlin Castro's 2011 numbers

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bradical

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Jun 21, 2009
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Castro is currently batting 105/323 (.325) with 21 2B, 6 3B, 2 HR, 37 RBI, and 10 SB. The Cubs have placed him in 5 different spots in the lineup so far, and he vastly more comfortable outside of the #3 spot in the lineup.

Let's take a little deeper dive and look at some of his stats for the season:

Batting #1 in the lineup: 31/84 (.369) 6 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 10 RBI, and 5 SB
Batting #2 in the lineup: 33/88 (.375) 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, and 3 SB
Batting #3 in the lineup: 35/143 (.245) 9 2B, 3 3B, 0 HR, 12 RBI, and 2 SB
Batting #6 in the lineup: 4/4 (1.000) 0 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, and 0 SB
Batting #7 in the lineup: 2/4 (.500) 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, and 0 SB

Based on this sample size, eliminating his stats from the #3 spot would make his season look like this:

70/177 (.395) with 12 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 25 RBI, and 8 SB which, as you can see accounts for a majority of his stats even by eliminating over 140 of his ABs for the season.

Now, taking the trends he has set at the 1,2,6, and 7 spots in the lineup and applying that to his ABs he had at the #3 gives him an additional:

56/143, 9 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 1 HR, 20 RBI, and 6 SB

Making his exaggerated stats for the season look something like this:

126/320 (.393), 21 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 3 HRs, 45 RBIs, and 13 SBs. Wowzers.

Crazy numbers.
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
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Indeed, crazy!

But I'm curious... What are the dates for the individual line up spots? Because if all his ab's in the 3 spot came durring a elongated slump, it may not necessairly point to the actual spot causing the numbers, but just a coincidence of.. However, if they were sprinkled here and there, then it would be most interesting!
 

masonphillip

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Administrator
Aug 7, 2008
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matfanofold said:
Indeed, crazy!

But I'm curious... What are the dates for the individual line up spots? Because if all his ab's in the 3 spot came durring a elongated slump, it may not necessairly point to the actual spot causing the numbers, but just a coincidence of.. However, if they were sprinkled here and there, then it would be most interesting!


I was literally writing up the same comment, throwing out the 3 slot stats results in throwing out 44% of his at bats in total which means that there are probably some other variables impacting those at bats as well beyond just the lineup slot.
 

bradical

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Jun 21, 2009
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masonphillip said:
I was literally writing up the same comment, throwing out the 3 slot stats results in throwing out 44% of his at bats in total which means that there are probably some other variables impacting those at bats as well beyond just the lineup slot.

I am sure there could be a million+ variables. Day vs. Night, Righty vs. Lefty, Road vs. Away and so on.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... &year=2011

Call me a sucker for Occam's razor.
 

Zambrano38

New member
Aug 11, 2008
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0-5 in the 1st game of the Cubs' doubleheader while hitting in the 3 spot. Back to #2 for the 2nd game so it will be interesting to see how he does. I'd like to see him continue to bat 2nd, but with Barney coming back tomorrow, Quade will find a way to mess it up.
 

scotty21690

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Aug 7, 2008
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He seems like a leadoff hitter to me, someone who hits for a high average and isn't afraid to steal a base.....def not a #3 hitter though.
 

James52411

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May 22, 2010
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Tallahassee, FL
Zambrano38 said:
0-5 in the 1st game of the Cubs' doubleheader while hitting in the 3 spot. Back to #2 for the 2nd game so it will be interesting to see how he does. I'd like to see him continue to bat 2nd, but with Barney coming back tomorrow, Quade will find a way to mess it up.

Quade is a complete idiot. When a guy is only 21 years old, leave him in the two hole and be done with it. Starlin probably sees more fastballs there and he may be pressing a bit when batting third. For a guy that "spent two decades in the minor leagues" he sure makes a lot of stupid decisions and elementary mistakes as a manager. He needs to be one and done as the manager.
 

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