Advanced system for estimating values of Refractors, BGS??

scarletknight17 · Jul 18, 2011

I asked this in another forum and got no responses... hopefully, someone here who knows his stuff can help me out. I would literally consider sending cards to anyone who can PM me with a comprehensive and accurate answer.
Has anyone developed a nice little system for estimating fair values of Bowman Chrome auto parallels and BGS graded BC autos?
Something like:
BC Auto - Base price
BC Auto graded BGS 9.5 - 2x base price
BC Ref auto - 2x base price
BC Ref auto bgs 9.5 - 5x base price
etc....

And the more advanced follow-up: have you ever made money using your guidelines by finding arbitrage opportunities?

Thanks for any guidance!!

wolfmanalfredo · Jul 18, 2011

scarletknight17 said:
I asked this in another forum and got no responses... hopefully, someone here who knows his stuff can help me out. I would literally consider sending cards to anyone who can PM me with a comprehensive and accurate answer.
Has anyone developed a nice little system for estimating fair values of Bowman Chrome auto parallels and BGS graded BC autos?
Something like:
BC Auto - Base price
BC Auto graded BGS 9.5 - 2x base price
BC Ref auto - 2x base price
BC Ref auto bgs 9.5 - 5x base price
etc....

And the more advanced follow-up: have you ever made money using your guidelines by finding arbitrage opportunities?

Thanks for any guidance!!

Not sure its that cut and dry, but I'm not a prospector so I know I don't have all the answers.

Russ S. · Jul 18, 2011

It's not so cut & dry.

It all depends on the year, player, print run, and the players' other issues.
There are very few players IF ANY that the BGS 9.5 Refractor Auto is 5x a raw base auto.

uniquebaseballcards · Jul 18, 2011

This topic always seems to come up. The simple answer is that everyone needs to do their homework...if you don't you'll lose out.

Mudcatsfan · Jul 18, 2011

Russ S. said:
It's not so cut & dry.

It all depends on the year, player, print run, and the players' other issues.
There are very few players IF ANY that the BGS 9.5 Refractor Auto is 5x a raw base auto.

THIS.

Blue Refractors & Xfractors are especially screwy as some years the blues were /99 and other years /150 and other years /199. That's a HUGE difference.

Even TOTAL print run of parallels makes a huge difference. 2002 Bowman Chrome Draft had Refractors /300, Xfractors /150, and Golds /50

Now we have Refs /599, Purples /700 or so Blues /150, (sometimes) Xfractors /199 Gold /50 Orange /25, Red /5, Super 1/1 PLates 1/8, etc.

But yeah you absolutely can make a killing if you learn the 'usual' price ranges and buy when something starts dipping outside what it 'should' sell for. That's probably the best investment advice in card collecting. Learn the price ranges and pounce when they differ (and hope you aren't the last guy to hear about a good reason they're differing

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Advanced system for estimating values of Refractors, BGS??

scarletknight17

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wolfmanalfredo

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Russ S.

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uniquebaseballcards

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Mudcatsfan

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