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If Cassel ever went out for the season, yes the Chief my get the #1 pick, plus now, they have to decide the re-sign Bowe or trade him. Indy has some talent, but wow Seattle is terrible. And you have to include the Vikings. Mcnabb has been bad.
Assuming Manning makes a full recovery I'd be really interested to see what the Colts would do with the #1 pick. I can't imagine they would take Luck. I know they could "Groom" him for 3 or 4 years behind Manning but the Colts are in win now mode. In hopes of getting Manning another ring before he retires I don't think there is any way they would draft someone that would never see the field until Manning is gone. It could make for some interesting draft day trading.