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Early Draft Preview: Overview
Strasburg towers over draft peers
By Jim Callis
February 5, 2009
Most years, the No. 1 pick isn't determined until weeks before the June draft. David Price in 2007 was a recent exception, but usually the club selection first will stake out game after game involving a handful of candidates before settling on their choice.
Signability and the faltering economy may well play a role in who the Nationals take No. 1 on June 9, but on talent alone, right now there could only be one choice.
Scouts can't find a flaw with San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg (right). He has the best fastball and breaking ball in the draft, breaks out a plus changeup from time to time, locates his pitches with precision and has a strong, durable frame.
"He's a good bit ahead of everyone else," a National League scouting director said. "We see good college pitchers every year, whether it's Mark Mulder or Kris Benson or whoever. But I've never seen a righthander as talented as this guy, other than Mark Prior. And he probably has better raw stuff than Prior did."
Strasburg headlines a deep group of college pitchers who should dominate the upper half of the first round, a reversal from a year ago, when only two went in the first 15 picks. Righthanders Alex White (North Carolina), Kyle Gibson (Missouri), Kendal Volz (Baylor) and Jason Stoffel (Arizona), and lefties Andrew Oliver (Oklahoma State) and Mike Minor (Vanderbilt) all could go that high this June.
In another reversal from 2008, which featured the best crop of college hitters this decade, this year features a steep dropoff in college position players after Southern California shortstop Grant Green and North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley. The high school talent pool is more balanced, led by outfielder Donavan Tate (Cartersville, Ga., HS) and lefthanders Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.) and Matt Purke (Klein, Texas, HS).
Prep catching is especially deep, as Luke Bailey (Troup HS, LaGrange, Ga.), Max Stassi (Yuba City, Calif.), Wil Myers (Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C.) and Austin Maddox (Eagle's View Academy, Jackson) all are potential first-rounders.
"You're going to see a lot of pitching go early," an American League scouting director said. "There's pitching depth in high school and college, some pretty good ones. There's Ackley and Green, but there aren't those ultra-special position guys staring at you this year."
Will Economy Affect Draft?
MLB's system of recommending bonuses for each specific draft slot began in 2000, and for eight years the commissioner's office exerted pressure on teams to toe the line. But when a handful of teams annually scooped up an inordinate amount of supposedly unsignable talent, MLB changed course in 2008.
After slashing slots by 10 percent in 2007, only to watch bonuses and holdouts rise, the commissioner's office encouraged clubs last year to draft players based on ability rather than signability. Both No. 1 pick Tim Beckham ($6.15 million from the Rays) and No. 5 choice Buster Posey ($6.2 million from the Giants) broke the old bonus record, and four of the six highest bonuses in draft history were paid out. The industry as a whole spent a record $186.5 million on draft bonuses, up $34.7 million from 2007.
But the United States is in the midst of a full-blown recession, which has had a pronounced affect on the free-agent market this offseason. Teams don't know if MLB will cite the economy as a reason to tighten the slot recommendations, or whether owners will seize an excuse to spend less on the draft, leading to uncertainty about how big draft budgets will be come June.
"I think it's going to affect a whole lot of other areas of this business, so it certainly could affect the amateur draft," the NL scouting director said. "I think we're all a little anxious on that one. I could see teams trying to say, especially if attendance is down by June and some teams are having a tough go of it, I could see ownership try to cut back."
The signability of Scott Boras Corp. clients makes many teams skittish even when the economy is booming, and this year the Boras stable includes Strasburg, Green, Ackley, Tate, Oliver, Davis and Turner—seven of Baseball America's 15 top-rated prospects entering the season. That could make for some interesting decisions at the top of the draft and for some talented players falling to wealthier teams at the bottom of the first round. As much as teams love Strasburg, he could command a deal in excess of Prior's record $10.5 million guarantee from the Cubs in 2001.
The Nationals are in a particularly interesting position, as the first club ever to own two picks in the top half of the first round. Washington claimed the No. 1 choice by virtue of having MLB's worst record (59-102) in 2008, and received the No. 10 selection after failing to sign Aaron Crow with the ninth pick in last year's draft. Signing Strasburg and a player worthy of the 10th choice could cost the Nationals upwards of $12 million, and they don't have the leverage of further compensation if they can't close a deal with the No. 10 pick.
A second AL scouting director, who doesn't have an early choice, cautioned that teams will only hurt themselves if they try to go cheap at the top of the draft.
"In the grand scheme of things, if you're picking in the top five picks, how can you settle for a lesser player unless the dollars are just ridiculous?" a second AL scouting director said. "Because of the economy? We've got bullpen guys and fourth outfielders getting $1.2 million, $1.5 million. Just stop doing that and add that to your draft pick."
Overall Draft Top 33
We rank the top prospects as of early February
By Jim Callis
February 5, 2009
Thanks to the Nationals and Yankees' inability to sign their 2008 first-round picks, the 2009 first round is already the longest in baseball history, and if the Mariners can't sign Joshua Fields, it will extend to 33 picks.
But there's no debate as to who is at the top of everyone's list heading into the 2009 college and high school seasons, as Stephen Strasburg is the clear No. 1.
1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State
The difference between him and the rest of this draft class is so huge, it's hard to imagine anyone closing it.
2. Grant Green, ss, Southern California
Five-tool shortstop drew comparisons to Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki in the Cape Cod League last summer.
3. Alex White, rhp, North Carolina
Pick your poison: He can make you look silly with his fastball, slider or splitter.
4. Dustin Ackley, 1b, North Carolina
College baseball's best pure hitter has surprising speed, could boost his stock further with a move to center.
5. Donavan Tate, of, Cartersville (Ga.) HS
The son of former NFL running back Lars Tate is easily the best high school position player available.
6. Aaron Crow, rhp, Fort Worth Cats (Independent)
May go higher in the draft after failing to sign with the Nationals as the No. 9 overall pick in 2008.
7. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
Scouts slightly prefer him to Matt Purke because he's more physical and does things a little more easily.
8. Matt Purke, lhp, Klein (Texas) HS
Has a little more power to his arsenal than Matzek, plus a track record of starring with Team USA and at showcases.
9. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri
Already has been very successful with a solid fastball and a nifty slider, and he has lots of projection remaining.
10. Kendal Volz, rhp, Baylor
Didn't surrender an earned run in 14 innings as Team USA's closer last summer.
11. Andrew Oliver, lhp, Oklahoma State
Lawsuit against NCAA overshadows that he's the top college southpaw and owns one of the best curves in the draft.
12. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt
Second Commodores lefty (following David Price) to earn BA's Summer Player of the Year award in last three years.
13. Jason Stoffel, rhp, Arizona
Served as closer ahead of first-round picks Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth on the Wildcats' 2008 super-regional club.
14. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee
Draft-eligible sophomore owns the best combination of speed and power among the college hitting crop.
15. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis
Might be better than last year's Missouri stud high school pitcher, Tim Melville.
16. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS
Top pitcher at Area Code Games, tossed two no-hitters and a perfect game in three consecutive starts last spring.
17. D.J. LeMahieu, ss, Louisiana State
Draft-eligible sophomore continues to move up as more scouts believe he'll remain at shortstop, provide plenty of offense.
18. Luke Bailey, c, Troup HS, LaGrange (Ga.) HS
Offensive and defensive talent headlines a deep crop of high school catching that blows away the college group.
19. Mychal Givens, rhp/ss, Plant HS, Tampa
Originally surfaced as a shortstop, but now more teams regard him as a pitcher; he's talented but raw both ways.
20. Bobby Borchering, 3b/1b, Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla.
Offers big-time power form both sides of the plate, will enhance his status if he proves he can stay at third base.
21. A.J. *******, of, Notre Dame
Cape Cod League MVP is a talented hitter with otherwise solid tools across the board and defensive versatility.
22. Brian Goodwin, of, Rocky Mount (N.C.) HS
Aflac Game MVP is a potential five-tool center fielder, though he needs some refinement at the plate.
23. Zach Wheeler, rhp, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.
Projectable and has the makings of a power repertoire.
24. Mike Leake, rhp/inf, Arizona State
College baseball's best two-way player wins with average stuff to go with uncanny pitchability and competitiveness
25. Blake Smith, of/rhp, California
More physical than Leake but hasn't had the same success; he's a legitimate prospect both ways.
26. Ryan Jackson, ss, Miami
Best defensive player in the draft is a slick shortstop but won't go higher unless he answers questions about his bat.
27. Brett Jackson, of, California
If the continues to make progress, might be the most legitimate five-tool college player in the draft.
28. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Santa Monica (Calif.) HS
Has exceptional command for a 6-foot-5 prep lefthander, and his stuff should take off once he fills out.
29. Jiovanni Mier, ss, Bonita HS, LaVerne, Calif.
Projects as a standout defensive shortstop with promising defensive potential.
30. Matt den Dekker, of, Florida
Offers power, speed and quality center-field defense; will rise if he puts rough summer (.229 with Team USA) behind him.
31. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS
Polished backstop has a professional approach at the plate, using the whole field and hitting for power.
32. Ben Tootle, rhp, Jacksonville State
Made a name for himself by showing off a 94-98 mph fastball and hard slider in the Cape Cod League last summer.
33. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, St. Paul Saints (Independent)
Would have been a top-10 pick in 2008 if he hadn't hurt his shoulder, could go that high if he proves he's healthy.
Strasburg towers over draft peers
By Jim Callis
February 5, 2009
Most years, the No. 1 pick isn't determined until weeks before the June draft. David Price in 2007 was a recent exception, but usually the club selection first will stake out game after game involving a handful of candidates before settling on their choice.
Signability and the faltering economy may well play a role in who the Nationals take No. 1 on June 9, but on talent alone, right now there could only be one choice.
Scouts can't find a flaw with San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg (right). He has the best fastball and breaking ball in the draft, breaks out a plus changeup from time to time, locates his pitches with precision and has a strong, durable frame.
"He's a good bit ahead of everyone else," a National League scouting director said. "We see good college pitchers every year, whether it's Mark Mulder or Kris Benson or whoever. But I've never seen a righthander as talented as this guy, other than Mark Prior. And he probably has better raw stuff than Prior did."
Strasburg headlines a deep group of college pitchers who should dominate the upper half of the first round, a reversal from a year ago, when only two went in the first 15 picks. Righthanders Alex White (North Carolina), Kyle Gibson (Missouri), Kendal Volz (Baylor) and Jason Stoffel (Arizona), and lefties Andrew Oliver (Oklahoma State) and Mike Minor (Vanderbilt) all could go that high this June.
In another reversal from 2008, which featured the best crop of college hitters this decade, this year features a steep dropoff in college position players after Southern California shortstop Grant Green and North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley. The high school talent pool is more balanced, led by outfielder Donavan Tate (Cartersville, Ga., HS) and lefthanders Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.) and Matt Purke (Klein, Texas, HS).
Prep catching is especially deep, as Luke Bailey (Troup HS, LaGrange, Ga.), Max Stassi (Yuba City, Calif.), Wil Myers (Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C.) and Austin Maddox (Eagle's View Academy, Jackson) all are potential first-rounders.
"You're going to see a lot of pitching go early," an American League scouting director said. "There's pitching depth in high school and college, some pretty good ones. There's Ackley and Green, but there aren't those ultra-special position guys staring at you this year."
Will Economy Affect Draft?
MLB's system of recommending bonuses for each specific draft slot began in 2000, and for eight years the commissioner's office exerted pressure on teams to toe the line. But when a handful of teams annually scooped up an inordinate amount of supposedly unsignable talent, MLB changed course in 2008.
After slashing slots by 10 percent in 2007, only to watch bonuses and holdouts rise, the commissioner's office encouraged clubs last year to draft players based on ability rather than signability. Both No. 1 pick Tim Beckham ($6.15 million from the Rays) and No. 5 choice Buster Posey ($6.2 million from the Giants) broke the old bonus record, and four of the six highest bonuses in draft history were paid out. The industry as a whole spent a record $186.5 million on draft bonuses, up $34.7 million from 2007.
But the United States is in the midst of a full-blown recession, which has had a pronounced affect on the free-agent market this offseason. Teams don't know if MLB will cite the economy as a reason to tighten the slot recommendations, or whether owners will seize an excuse to spend less on the draft, leading to uncertainty about how big draft budgets will be come June.
"I think it's going to affect a whole lot of other areas of this business, so it certainly could affect the amateur draft," the NL scouting director said. "I think we're all a little anxious on that one. I could see teams trying to say, especially if attendance is down by June and some teams are having a tough go of it, I could see ownership try to cut back."
The signability of Scott Boras Corp. clients makes many teams skittish even when the economy is booming, and this year the Boras stable includes Strasburg, Green, Ackley, Tate, Oliver, Davis and Turner—seven of Baseball America's 15 top-rated prospects entering the season. That could make for some interesting decisions at the top of the draft and for some talented players falling to wealthier teams at the bottom of the first round. As much as teams love Strasburg, he could command a deal in excess of Prior's record $10.5 million guarantee from the Cubs in 2001.
The Nationals are in a particularly interesting position, as the first club ever to own two picks in the top half of the first round. Washington claimed the No. 1 choice by virtue of having MLB's worst record (59-102) in 2008, and received the No. 10 selection after failing to sign Aaron Crow with the ninth pick in last year's draft. Signing Strasburg and a player worthy of the 10th choice could cost the Nationals upwards of $12 million, and they don't have the leverage of further compensation if they can't close a deal with the No. 10 pick.
A second AL scouting director, who doesn't have an early choice, cautioned that teams will only hurt themselves if they try to go cheap at the top of the draft.
"In the grand scheme of things, if you're picking in the top five picks, how can you settle for a lesser player unless the dollars are just ridiculous?" a second AL scouting director said. "Because of the economy? We've got bullpen guys and fourth outfielders getting $1.2 million, $1.5 million. Just stop doing that and add that to your draft pick."
Overall Draft Top 33
We rank the top prospects as of early February
By Jim Callis
February 5, 2009
Thanks to the Nationals and Yankees' inability to sign their 2008 first-round picks, the 2009 first round is already the longest in baseball history, and if the Mariners can't sign Joshua Fields, it will extend to 33 picks.
But there's no debate as to who is at the top of everyone's list heading into the 2009 college and high school seasons, as Stephen Strasburg is the clear No. 1.
1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State
The difference between him and the rest of this draft class is so huge, it's hard to imagine anyone closing it.
2. Grant Green, ss, Southern California
Five-tool shortstop drew comparisons to Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki in the Cape Cod League last summer.
3. Alex White, rhp, North Carolina
Pick your poison: He can make you look silly with his fastball, slider or splitter.
4. Dustin Ackley, 1b, North Carolina
College baseball's best pure hitter has surprising speed, could boost his stock further with a move to center.
5. Donavan Tate, of, Cartersville (Ga.) HS
The son of former NFL running back Lars Tate is easily the best high school position player available.
6. Aaron Crow, rhp, Fort Worth Cats (Independent)
May go higher in the draft after failing to sign with the Nationals as the No. 9 overall pick in 2008.
7. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.
Scouts slightly prefer him to Matt Purke because he's more physical and does things a little more easily.
8. Matt Purke, lhp, Klein (Texas) HS
Has a little more power to his arsenal than Matzek, plus a track record of starring with Team USA and at showcases.
9. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Missouri
Already has been very successful with a solid fastball and a nifty slider, and he has lots of projection remaining.
10. Kendal Volz, rhp, Baylor
Didn't surrender an earned run in 14 innings as Team USA's closer last summer.
11. Andrew Oliver, lhp, Oklahoma State
Lawsuit against NCAA overshadows that he's the top college southpaw and owns one of the best curves in the draft.
12. Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt
Second Commodores lefty (following David Price) to earn BA's Summer Player of the Year award in last three years.
13. Jason Stoffel, rhp, Arizona
Served as closer ahead of first-round picks Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth on the Wildcats' 2008 super-regional club.
14. Kentrail Davis, of, Tennessee
Draft-eligible sophomore owns the best combination of speed and power among the college hitting crop.
15. Jacob Turner, rhp, Westminster Christian Academy, St. Louis
Might be better than last year's Missouri stud high school pitcher, Tim Melville.
16. Shelby Miller, rhp, Brownwood (Texas) HS
Top pitcher at Area Code Games, tossed two no-hitters and a perfect game in three consecutive starts last spring.
17. D.J. LeMahieu, ss, Louisiana State
Draft-eligible sophomore continues to move up as more scouts believe he'll remain at shortstop, provide plenty of offense.
18. Luke Bailey, c, Troup HS, LaGrange (Ga.) HS
Offensive and defensive talent headlines a deep crop of high school catching that blows away the college group.
19. Mychal Givens, rhp/ss, Plant HS, Tampa
Originally surfaced as a shortstop, but now more teams regard him as a pitcher; he's talented but raw both ways.
20. Bobby Borchering, 3b/1b, Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla.
Offers big-time power form both sides of the plate, will enhance his status if he proves he can stay at third base.
21. A.J. *******, of, Notre Dame
Cape Cod League MVP is a talented hitter with otherwise solid tools across the board and defensive versatility.
22. Brian Goodwin, of, Rocky Mount (N.C.) HS
Aflac Game MVP is a potential five-tool center fielder, though he needs some refinement at the plate.
23. Zach Wheeler, rhp, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.
Projectable and has the makings of a power repertoire.
24. Mike Leake, rhp/inf, Arizona State
College baseball's best two-way player wins with average stuff to go with uncanny pitchability and competitiveness
25. Blake Smith, of/rhp, California
More physical than Leake but hasn't had the same success; he's a legitimate prospect both ways.
26. Ryan Jackson, ss, Miami
Best defensive player in the draft is a slick shortstop but won't go higher unless he answers questions about his bat.
27. Brett Jackson, of, California
If the continues to make progress, might be the most legitimate five-tool college player in the draft.
28. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Santa Monica (Calif.) HS
Has exceptional command for a 6-foot-5 prep lefthander, and his stuff should take off once he fills out.
29. Jiovanni Mier, ss, Bonita HS, LaVerne, Calif.
Projects as a standout defensive shortstop with promising defensive potential.
30. Matt den Dekker, of, Florida
Offers power, speed and quality center-field defense; will rise if he puts rough summer (.229 with Team USA) behind him.
31. Max Stassi, c, Yuba City (Calif.) HS
Polished backstop has a professional approach at the plate, using the whole field and hitting for power.
32. Ben Tootle, rhp, Jacksonville State
Made a name for himself by showing off a 94-98 mph fastball and hard slider in the Cape Cod League last summer.
33. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, St. Paul Saints (Independent)
Would have been a top-10 pick in 2008 if he hadn't hurt his shoulder, could go that high if he proves he's healthy.
