- Thread starter
- #1
Topnotchsy
Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
- Aug 7, 2008
- 9,449
- 177
Often when discussing investment, people are talking about the past, and at times the narrative is presented in a way that makes it seem like an investment which blew up and made the investor a ton of money was extremely obvious even back at the time of investing. (In other words, looking back at the successes it is easy to remember the reasons why it made sense to invest, without remembering the possible negatives.)
With that said, I thought it was worth taking a look at Leaf Valiant, especially for those who are new to prospecting.
As most people here know, Leaf Valiant came out recently and includes autograph cards of many of the top prospects. There are a number of factors that are impacting the prices of the cards including (but not limited to...)
Pros:
General consensus from those who have seen the cards that they look really nice
First release of many top prospects
Low print runs
On-card autographs
Cons:
Leaf does not have an MLB license which means they cannot use team logos
Leaf has had a couple of flops in the prospecting arena in the past
Uncertainty about how the market will respond to the set
These and other factors (including the quantity currently on eBay) have contributed to the value of the Leaf cards at the present moment, and the degree of uncertainty means that for those who think that the cards will eventually gain widespread acceptance, the prices are very low. (In fact if they do gain widespread acceptance, the prices could easily go up significantly, especially for the players who do well.) For those who think that the set will end up being viewed as a shinier "Just" or other second tier set, the prices are way higher than they should be.
The affects of this uncertainty can be considered by comparing the Bowman Chrome. With Chrome it is pretty well understood (barring unusual market conditions) that the players who develop into stars will go up in price and those who do not will drop in price. With Leaf, if the set is successful, the returns on the players who do well should be much greater than with Bowman Chrome and even with the players who do poorly, the loss will be much lower (since the buy-in was lower.) If on the other hand Valiant flops, even the players who do well will not see much return, and those who do not will be close to worthless.
Digging a little deeper we see another layer of uncertainty related to the players how already have cards released (especially those who have had releases in earlier years.) Take a player like Gerrit Cole. He was the #1 pick in the draft so he's obviously a pretty decent prospect, yet his cards have been selling for less than many other players in the set. The reason is pretty obvious: Cole already had prospect autograph cards released in 2010. This means that besides for all the uncertainty related to him as a prospect, and Leaf as a brand, there is also uncertainty about whether a second year release will ever attract much interest. (This is very similar to how it was when Bowman Chrome starting having signed prospect cards of guys who had already had previous releases. Initially there was a lot of uncertainty about whether they would be accepted. In that case they did become accepted and those that bought Chrome Auto's of guys like Prince Fielder made a ton of money. Obviously that is not enough to let us assume the same will happen with Leaf though, as Chrome was successful because of the strength of the brand, and it is not clear whether Leaf will be able to follow in a similar way.)
The beauty of all this is that the uncertainty and questions are right there is front of us, and it is a chance to really consider a market before it is clear which direction it will head. In 6 months or a year from now many people will likely be sitting looking back, and if Valiant is successful those who invested will be telling about how it made so much sense. If alternatively it fails those who assumed it would from the beginning will be sitting saying things like, "I knew it had no chance from the beginning." Right now though, we can take an objective look at the two sides, weigh the options, and consider making an investment that can either pay off handsomely, or end up being a waste of money.
With that said, I thought it was worth taking a look at Leaf Valiant, especially for those who are new to prospecting.
As most people here know, Leaf Valiant came out recently and includes autograph cards of many of the top prospects. There are a number of factors that are impacting the prices of the cards including (but not limited to...)
Pros:
General consensus from those who have seen the cards that they look really nice
First release of many top prospects
Low print runs
On-card autographs
Cons:
Leaf does not have an MLB license which means they cannot use team logos
Leaf has had a couple of flops in the prospecting arena in the past
Uncertainty about how the market will respond to the set
These and other factors (including the quantity currently on eBay) have contributed to the value of the Leaf cards at the present moment, and the degree of uncertainty means that for those who think that the cards will eventually gain widespread acceptance, the prices are very low. (In fact if they do gain widespread acceptance, the prices could easily go up significantly, especially for the players who do well.) For those who think that the set will end up being viewed as a shinier "Just" or other second tier set, the prices are way higher than they should be.
The affects of this uncertainty can be considered by comparing the Bowman Chrome. With Chrome it is pretty well understood (barring unusual market conditions) that the players who develop into stars will go up in price and those who do not will drop in price. With Leaf, if the set is successful, the returns on the players who do well should be much greater than with Bowman Chrome and even with the players who do poorly, the loss will be much lower (since the buy-in was lower.) If on the other hand Valiant flops, even the players who do well will not see much return, and those who do not will be close to worthless.
Digging a little deeper we see another layer of uncertainty related to the players how already have cards released (especially those who have had releases in earlier years.) Take a player like Gerrit Cole. He was the #1 pick in the draft so he's obviously a pretty decent prospect, yet his cards have been selling for less than many other players in the set. The reason is pretty obvious: Cole already had prospect autograph cards released in 2010. This means that besides for all the uncertainty related to him as a prospect, and Leaf as a brand, there is also uncertainty about whether a second year release will ever attract much interest. (This is very similar to how it was when Bowman Chrome starting having signed prospect cards of guys who had already had previous releases. Initially there was a lot of uncertainty about whether they would be accepted. In that case they did become accepted and those that bought Chrome Auto's of guys like Prince Fielder made a ton of money. Obviously that is not enough to let us assume the same will happen with Leaf though, as Chrome was successful because of the strength of the brand, and it is not clear whether Leaf will be able to follow in a similar way.)
The beauty of all this is that the uncertainty and questions are right there is front of us, and it is a chance to really consider a market before it is clear which direction it will head. In 6 months or a year from now many people will likely be sitting looking back, and if Valiant is successful those who invested will be telling about how it made so much sense. If alternatively it fails those who assumed it would from the beginning will be sitting saying things like, "I knew it had no chance from the beginning." Right now though, we can take an objective look at the two sides, weigh the options, and consider making an investment that can either pay off handsomely, or end up being a waste of money.
