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http://freedomcardboard.com/blog/2011/1 ... up-2-down/
Five Up
Trevor Bauer - It's a little silly to downgrade Bauer for his build or mechanics. He has top-of-the-rotation upside and is a good bet to pitch in the big leagues in 2012. If you're looking for knocks on him, keep a close watch on his fastball command and ability to keep his breaking ball down in the zone. He may be prone to giving up home runs and running up high pitch counts. He also threw a lot of innings his junior season, which is a mild reason for concern. That said, for projecting out the next three years, Bauer may be the best combination of upside and floor of any pitcher from his draft class.
Jed Bradley - I caught a glimpse at Bradley during his final start at the Arizona Fall League. A lefty with a good frame, he showed a low-90s fastball with a bit of movement and a decent slider. I did not see an impressive changeup or a high-upside talent. I did see a likely major leaguer who could surface as a mid-rotation arm before long.
Taylor Guerrieri - I've already had one scout go out of his way to bring up Guerrieri in my scout calls this offseason. Lincoln Hamilton, who does Project Prospect's draft coverage, had Guerrieri at No. 6 overall on his 2011 draft board, citing his sound mechanics, mid-90s fastball and power curveball as reasons to get excited. He has outstanding arm strength and isn't a max-effort guy. Up the tempo a little and you have a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
Joe Panik - Bigger and more physical than I expected, Panik looked the part of a MLB second baseman when I saw him at the AFL. He has a sound approach, not overly aggressive but ready to turn on pitches. He's a good contact hitter who controls at-bats. Though I don't think he's going to be an elite big leaguer or a shortstop, I do think he will move quickly and have a solid professional career as a second baseman.
Bubba Starling - Raw but extremely gifted, Starling has outstanding bat speed and a strong, athletic frame. He takes some ugly hacks and doesn't have a pretty, natural swing. His ability to drive the ball is a product of his quick bat and raw strength. A high-upside talent, Starling should be able to reach the big leagues on bat speed and athleticism alone. If he can polish his game in the years to come, he may surface as a star. Just know that he could be a bit of a long-term project.
Two Down
Robert Stephenson - I usually try to see any elite draft talents in my area. Stephenson played his high school baseball less than 10 miles from my house. After seeing video of his high-effort mechanics and reliever arm action, I didn't feel inclined to schedule a day to see him pitch. Stephenson may throw hard and offer deception, but I see his odds of being able to handle a starter's workload, given his mechanics, to be very slim.
Taylor Jungmann - Jungmann releases the ball with a distracting, neck-wrenching head whack. He has a big frame and throws hard. He also made good strides with his command and strikeout rate from 2010 to 2011. I still have trouble jumping fully on board with Jungmann, as I think he's going to have trouble throwing quality strikes to professional hitters with his head whack. That said, he's pretty smooth in his windup and did have a lot off success in the college game.
Five Up
Trevor Bauer - It's a little silly to downgrade Bauer for his build or mechanics. He has top-of-the-rotation upside and is a good bet to pitch in the big leagues in 2012. If you're looking for knocks on him, keep a close watch on his fastball command and ability to keep his breaking ball down in the zone. He may be prone to giving up home runs and running up high pitch counts. He also threw a lot of innings his junior season, which is a mild reason for concern. That said, for projecting out the next three years, Bauer may be the best combination of upside and floor of any pitcher from his draft class.
Jed Bradley - I caught a glimpse at Bradley during his final start at the Arizona Fall League. A lefty with a good frame, he showed a low-90s fastball with a bit of movement and a decent slider. I did not see an impressive changeup or a high-upside talent. I did see a likely major leaguer who could surface as a mid-rotation arm before long.
Taylor Guerrieri - I've already had one scout go out of his way to bring up Guerrieri in my scout calls this offseason. Lincoln Hamilton, who does Project Prospect's draft coverage, had Guerrieri at No. 6 overall on his 2011 draft board, citing his sound mechanics, mid-90s fastball and power curveball as reasons to get excited. He has outstanding arm strength and isn't a max-effort guy. Up the tempo a little and you have a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
Joe Panik - Bigger and more physical than I expected, Panik looked the part of a MLB second baseman when I saw him at the AFL. He has a sound approach, not overly aggressive but ready to turn on pitches. He's a good contact hitter who controls at-bats. Though I don't think he's going to be an elite big leaguer or a shortstop, I do think he will move quickly and have a solid professional career as a second baseman.
Bubba Starling - Raw but extremely gifted, Starling has outstanding bat speed and a strong, athletic frame. He takes some ugly hacks and doesn't have a pretty, natural swing. His ability to drive the ball is a product of his quick bat and raw strength. A high-upside talent, Starling should be able to reach the big leagues on bat speed and athleticism alone. If he can polish his game in the years to come, he may surface as a star. Just know that he could be a bit of a long-term project.
Two Down
Robert Stephenson - I usually try to see any elite draft talents in my area. Stephenson played his high school baseball less than 10 miles from my house. After seeing video of his high-effort mechanics and reliever arm action, I didn't feel inclined to schedule a day to see him pitch. Stephenson may throw hard and offer deception, but I see his odds of being able to handle a starter's workload, given his mechanics, to be very slim.
Taylor Jungmann - Jungmann releases the ball with a distracting, neck-wrenching head whack. He has a big frame and throws hard. He also made good strides with his command and strikeout rate from 2010 to 2011. I still have trouble jumping fully on board with Jungmann, as I think he's going to have trouble throwing quality strikes to professional hitters with his head whack. That said, he's pretty smooth in his windup and did have a lot off success in the college game.
