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Every year as Bowman Draft Picks comes out people start reading up on the prospects they pull or to search out prospects to buy. This article was submitted for use by FCB from Baseball America writer Ben Badler to help you guys get a clearer picture of who to buy.
FIVE TO BUY
Trevor Bauer, rhp, Diamondbacks: Gerrit Cole is a fine pitching prospect, but in five years the Pirates may look back and wonder why they used the first overall pick in the 2011 draft on Cole instead of his more effective UCLA teammate. After posting a spectacular 203-36 K-BB mark with a 1.25 ERA in 136 2/3 innings his junior year, Bauer signed as the third overall pick and moved quickly to Double-A. Bauer is no trick pitcher getting by on deception and guile—he has power stuff and plenty of 60s and 70s in his repertoire on the 20-80 scouting scale. He pitches off a low-to-mid 90s fastball but he can throw any pitch in any count. His curveball can be a knockout, plus-plus pitch, while his changeup is above-average. In pro ball he may simplify his pitch selection—he throws a slider, a splitter and what he calls a “reverse slider”—but his bread-and-butter offerings are all enough to pitch at the top of a rotation.
Archie Bradley, rhp, Diamondbacks: Bradley will take longer to arrive in Arizona than Bauer, but both are potential frontline starters for the Diamondbacks. The seventh overall pick, Bradley is a premium pitching prospect with good size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), stuff, athleticism and mechanics. Bradley sits at 92-95 mph, touches 98 and can miss plenty of bats with his plus curveball. Like many high school pitchers, Bradley hasn’t had much need for his changeup, but he’s already shown feel for the pitch. A high school quarterback who could have played football at Oklahoma, Bradley’s athleticism helps him repeat his delivery and throw strikes. In a couple of years, Bradley could be Arizona’s version of Shelby Miller.
Dylan Bundy, rhp, Orioles: It’s difficult to ask for much more of a high school pitching prospect than what Bundy brings to the table. Bundy has the combination of high-ceiling stuff, a clean delivery and the polish to potentially move quickly through the system that is rare in a high school pitching prospect. The fourth overall pick in the draft and the first high school player off the board, Bundy can touch 100 mph but more comfortably will sit in the mid-90s in pro ball. It’s easy velocity for Bundy with his controlled, fluid delivery, which helps him fill up the strike zone. Bundy has good secondary stuff as well, including a plus curveball and a plus cutter, along with an average changeup. At 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Bundy is an athletic specimen without much physical projection remaining, but what’s left to project? He has all the characteristics of a future ace.
Joe Panik, ss, Giants: Panik isn’t a defensive wizard, he doesn’t have a rocket arm or 70 power. What he can do is play in the middle of the diamond and swing the bat (and, perhaps just important, know when not to swing the bat). Panik has a simple, compact stroke from the left side and an excellent batting eye. He has the potential to be a consistent .300 hitter and post OBPs in the high .300s because of his plate discipline, ability to draw walks and solid speed. He’s probably not a shortstop because his arm is fringy and his range is just OK, but he’s good enough to play second base. Think Chris Coghlan’s 2009 NL rookie of the year-type production, only more consistent and with a better chance to remain at second base.
Cory Spangenberg, 2b, Padres: Like Panik, Spangenberg is an up-the-middle player with a pure lefty stroke and good plate discipline, only Spangenberg is also a 70 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale. Spangenberg, the 10th overall pick in the draft, has a line-drive swing and good plate coverage. With his speed and swing, he has the ability to hit for a high batting average, while his pitch selection and patience will help him get on base at a high clip. A junior college third baseman who moved to second base as a pro, Spangenberg is still learning his new position, though he has the tools to profile in center field as well. Scouts raved about Spangenberg in his pro debut, and he has the ability to be a top-of-the-order hitter for the Padres while playing a premium position.
TWO TO AVOID
Taylor Jungmann, rhp, Brewers: Jungmann is more talented than many of the other players in the 2011 Bowman Chrome prospect autograph set, but he’s also likely to be more overpriced than many players drafted after him. The 12th overall pick in the draft, Jungman went 13-3, 1.60 with five complete games his junior year at Texas. While those numbers at a major college program are enticing, the Longhorns play in a pitcher-friendly park, and Jungmann’s strikeout rate actually decreased his senior year. He has good size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds) and a plus fastball that he commands well, but he doesn’t have the secondary pitches to miss bats and pitch at the top of a rotation. Given some scouts’ concerns about his mechanics and his late-season struggles for the Longhorns, Jungmann carries a considerable amount of risk for a player without frontline starter upside.
Kevin Matthews, lhp, Rangers: Texas focused more on the international market than the draft in 2011, which led to lavish spending on Latin American teenagers and a rather conservative draft. The Rangers held the final first-round pick in the draft (33rd overall) and spent it on Matthews, an athletic high school lefty who has flashed feel for a potentially above-average curveball. Matthews could be a useful big leaguer, but he comes with a handful of red flags. He has a quick arm and has touched 94 mph, but he’s more consistently in the 87-90 mph range. Given his size (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) and the effort in his delivery, his best role may be as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen.
FIVE TO BUY
Trevor Bauer, rhp, Diamondbacks: Gerrit Cole is a fine pitching prospect, but in five years the Pirates may look back and wonder why they used the first overall pick in the 2011 draft on Cole instead of his more effective UCLA teammate. After posting a spectacular 203-36 K-BB mark with a 1.25 ERA in 136 2/3 innings his junior year, Bauer signed as the third overall pick and moved quickly to Double-A. Bauer is no trick pitcher getting by on deception and guile—he has power stuff and plenty of 60s and 70s in his repertoire on the 20-80 scouting scale. He pitches off a low-to-mid 90s fastball but he can throw any pitch in any count. His curveball can be a knockout, plus-plus pitch, while his changeup is above-average. In pro ball he may simplify his pitch selection—he throws a slider, a splitter and what he calls a “reverse slider”—but his bread-and-butter offerings are all enough to pitch at the top of a rotation.
Archie Bradley, rhp, Diamondbacks: Bradley will take longer to arrive in Arizona than Bauer, but both are potential frontline starters for the Diamondbacks. The seventh overall pick, Bradley is a premium pitching prospect with good size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), stuff, athleticism and mechanics. Bradley sits at 92-95 mph, touches 98 and can miss plenty of bats with his plus curveball. Like many high school pitchers, Bradley hasn’t had much need for his changeup, but he’s already shown feel for the pitch. A high school quarterback who could have played football at Oklahoma, Bradley’s athleticism helps him repeat his delivery and throw strikes. In a couple of years, Bradley could be Arizona’s version of Shelby Miller.
Dylan Bundy, rhp, Orioles: It’s difficult to ask for much more of a high school pitching prospect than what Bundy brings to the table. Bundy has the combination of high-ceiling stuff, a clean delivery and the polish to potentially move quickly through the system that is rare in a high school pitching prospect. The fourth overall pick in the draft and the first high school player off the board, Bundy can touch 100 mph but more comfortably will sit in the mid-90s in pro ball. It’s easy velocity for Bundy with his controlled, fluid delivery, which helps him fill up the strike zone. Bundy has good secondary stuff as well, including a plus curveball and a plus cutter, along with an average changeup. At 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Bundy is an athletic specimen without much physical projection remaining, but what’s left to project? He has all the characteristics of a future ace.
Joe Panik, ss, Giants: Panik isn’t a defensive wizard, he doesn’t have a rocket arm or 70 power. What he can do is play in the middle of the diamond and swing the bat (and, perhaps just important, know when not to swing the bat). Panik has a simple, compact stroke from the left side and an excellent batting eye. He has the potential to be a consistent .300 hitter and post OBPs in the high .300s because of his plate discipline, ability to draw walks and solid speed. He’s probably not a shortstop because his arm is fringy and his range is just OK, but he’s good enough to play second base. Think Chris Coghlan’s 2009 NL rookie of the year-type production, only more consistent and with a better chance to remain at second base.
Cory Spangenberg, 2b, Padres: Like Panik, Spangenberg is an up-the-middle player with a pure lefty stroke and good plate discipline, only Spangenberg is also a 70 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale. Spangenberg, the 10th overall pick in the draft, has a line-drive swing and good plate coverage. With his speed and swing, he has the ability to hit for a high batting average, while his pitch selection and patience will help him get on base at a high clip. A junior college third baseman who moved to second base as a pro, Spangenberg is still learning his new position, though he has the tools to profile in center field as well. Scouts raved about Spangenberg in his pro debut, and he has the ability to be a top-of-the-order hitter for the Padres while playing a premium position.
TWO TO AVOID
Taylor Jungmann, rhp, Brewers: Jungmann is more talented than many of the other players in the 2011 Bowman Chrome prospect autograph set, but he’s also likely to be more overpriced than many players drafted after him. The 12th overall pick in the draft, Jungman went 13-3, 1.60 with five complete games his junior year at Texas. While those numbers at a major college program are enticing, the Longhorns play in a pitcher-friendly park, and Jungmann’s strikeout rate actually decreased his senior year. He has good size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds) and a plus fastball that he commands well, but he doesn’t have the secondary pitches to miss bats and pitch at the top of a rotation. Given some scouts’ concerns about his mechanics and his late-season struggles for the Longhorns, Jungmann carries a considerable amount of risk for a player without frontline starter upside.
Kevin Matthews, lhp, Rangers: Texas focused more on the international market than the draft in 2011, which led to lavish spending on Latin American teenagers and a rather conservative draft. The Rangers held the final first-round pick in the draft (33rd overall) and spent it on Matthews, an athletic high school lefty who has flashed feel for a potentially above-average curveball. Matthews could be a useful big leaguer, but he comes with a handful of red flags. He has a quick arm and has touched 94 mph, but he’s more consistently in the 87-90 mph range. Given his size (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) and the effort in his delivery, his best role may be as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen.
