The Gold Refractor Premium

I've been following the prices of some guys from 2011 BDP pretty closely and was noticing the other day, that there seem to be different premiums on parallels even if the lower end cards are priced the same, for instance.

Kolten Wong:
[phil:27xwj7vx]110788582205[/phil:27xwj7vx] - Refractors seem to land in $16 range
[phil:27xwj7vx]330650507711[/phil:27xwj7vx] - Blues /150 in the $45-$50 range - 3x Refractors
[phil:27xwj7vx]300630746865[/phil:27xwj7vx] - Golds about 2.2x blues at an average of $110, 6.875x Refractors

George Springer:
[phil:27xwj7vx]310364225189[/phil:27xwj7vx] - Refractors again, in the $16 range
[phil:27xwj7vx]190611587328[/phil:27xwj7vx] - Blues more in the $50-$60 range...nearly 4x Refractors
[phil:27xwj7vx]140656143638[/phil:27xwj7vx] - Golds around $140 or 8.75x Refractors

So what do you gather from this? I have tfour thoughts.

#1 - in the 2011 era of prospecting, it seems that high profile prospect x high profile card = higher price. In short, the premiums on parallels for premium prospects are larger multiples

#2 - a small number of people can change prices significantly - it only takes 1 or 2 additional folks hoarding Springer high-end parallels to drive up prices beyond what the market would typically value these at

#3 - this makes for traps for most prospectors - you can't be dead set on collecting Springer Golds for instance because 3 months after release if those guys still aren't in the market, all of a sudden without anything happening good or bad, your card has lost $30 value

#4 - in spite of what I mention about the trap above, the feast/famine nature of cards on eBay still draws lots of people into buying after release. Simply put, to build a sizable stash buying early feels like a near necessity at times because things dry up so quickly anymore.

Just some random thoughts from a guy following BDP...

I've noticed this same thing with guys I have been buying lately.

The blues, and especially golds, are selling at crazy prices compared to base and ref autos. Kind of changes the game for me a bit, to be honest.

I have always liked the Golds plain and simple. But it is because I pulled one about 6 years ago. And that did it for me.
I like the non-autos more since I can not really afford the auto'd ones. But, when I can, I do see what your saying on them.

I think this just makes the Refractors and base a better investment.

cmnkb8 said:

I think this just makes the Refractors and base a better investment.

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Specifically the refractors.

i've noticed this as well.

i can't believe some of these premiums...

You must be referring to autos... my non-auto blue refractor of Kolten Wong went for like $13 the weekend after the release.

A couple of the guys i was interested in buying have such high prices on the parallels hat it's almost not an option. If you're buying a gold ref auto of a high school prospect for ~$175-200, just think about where that card could potentially go, good or bad. Not many established prospects have Golds that sell that high so basically for it to gain value, that guy is going to have to be a stud pretty immediately. It just seems like you're putting yourself in a tough spot because there's simply not that much room for growth.

Low end, on the other hand, are pretty reasonable for.most guys this year other than a select few, and do have room to grow. It's just about building a stash with large enough quantity that you can turn a substantial profit.

My buying habits are more closely aligned with #4 in your post, but I think #1 is true as well. Jungmann blues sell for about double what Bradley blues sell for, and they were both 1st round picks for the Brewers. So it's not just a case of Brewers prospectors paying high premiums for their 1st round pick - it's clear that they (or others) are willing to pay a premium for the more highly-regarded player.

dp33 said:

My buying habits are more closely aligned with #4 in your post, but I think #1 is true as well. Jungmann blues sell for about double what Bradley blues sell for, and they were both 1st round picks for the Brewers. So it's not just a case of Brewers prospectors paying high premiums for their 1st round pick - it's clear that they (or others) are willing to pay a premium for the more highly-regarded player.

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It has more to do with the player and their base of fans that are chasing the cards. Jungmann is going to be a stud and is going to move quickly. I can see him pitching in Milwaukee in late 2012. Jungmann also went to U of Texas and is being chased by more than Brewer fans. Longhorn fans are rabid and Jungmann was a Longhorn legend.

seitas said:

dp33 said:

My buying habits are more closely aligned with #4 in your post, but I think #1 is true as well. Jungmann blues sell for about double what Bradley blues sell for, and they were both 1st round picks for the Brewers. So it's not just a case of Brewers prospectors paying high premiums for their 1st round pick - it's clear that they (or others) are willing to pay a premium for the more highly-regarded player.

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It has more to do with the player and their base of fans that are chasing the cards. Jungmann is going to be a stud and is going to move quickly. I can see him pitching in Milwaukee in late 2012. Jungmann also went to U of Texas and is being chased by more than Brewer fans. Longhorn fans are rabid and Jungmann was a Longhorn legend.

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Yes, is what I said.

fsulevine said:

You must be referring to autos... my non-auto blue refractor of Kolten Wong went for like $13 the weekend after the release.

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I am indeed.

The same principles USED to apply to base cards but with the relevance of base chromes tailing off...you don't see the same sorts of market dynamics.

I have noticed the same thing with Francisco Lindor. I have been buying every base rookie for $11 or less, and have noticed that for barely double you can get his refractor (the average sells for $22.50 shipped). If you look at blue refractors, one sold yesterday for $67 (3x ref) and, with the exception of what I believe his jersey number gold, they sell routinely at $150 (3 x blue). I think the oranges are the interesting ones, the only to completed sales on eBay of oranges are for $260 (1.5 x gold), I got mine for $215 (steal) but I'm surprised that they don't follow the same mathematical multiplier as the ones before. I would be interested in seeing what an orange would go for if it were arrested today, I wouldn't be surprised if it got $300.

As said before, the return on investment is definitely better if you were buying the lower end cards.

SydBarrett said:

I have noticed the same thing with Francisco Lindor. I have been buying every base rookie for $11 or less, and have noticed that for barely double you can get his refractor (the average sells for $22.50 shipped). If you look at blue refractors, one sold yesterday for $67 (3x ref) and, with the exception of what I believe his jersey number gold, they sell routinely at $150 (3 x blue). I think the oranges are the interesting ones, the only to completed sales on eBay of oranges are for $260 (1.5 x gold), I got mine for $215 (steal) but I'm surprised that they don't follow the same mathematical multiplier as the ones before. I would be interested in seeing what an orange would go for if it were arrested today, I wouldn't be surprised if it got $300.

As said before, the return on investment is definitely better if you were buying the lower end cards.

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I was watching some Lindor stuff and noticing the exact same thing.

What about low numbered non-auto. They seem like an awfully cheap buy in, even now, that normally see a pretty good surge when the player starts doing better.

I mean, I've seen Sonny Gray non auto Golds going for under 20. I can't imagine these going for less than 40 when he makes his MLB debut.

It also strikes me that people tend not to hoard these up as much at the time of release, and as such the prices aren't excessive. Now, the ceiling on these isn't super high by any means, but they seem to have good upside to me nonetheless.

VandyDan said:

What about low numbered non-auto. They seem like an awfully cheap buy in, even now, that normally see a pretty good surge when the player starts doing better.

I mean, I've seen Sonny Gray non auto Golds going for under 20. I can't imagine these going for less than 40 when he makes his MLB debut.

It also strikes me that people tend not to hoard these up as much at the time of release, and as such the prices aren't excessive. Now, the ceiling on these isn't super high by any means, but they seem to have good upside to me nonetheless.

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I really don't have the data, or experience to know one way or the others. What strikes me though conceptually is that when the product releases, people want the autographs. When the player gets hot, people want the autographs. With guys like Sonny Gray you are going to have BDP, Leaf Metal, Leaf Valiant, Sterling and Elite autographs making for some very affordable autographed cards. It's completely feasible that you could make a nice sale on a non-auto card when a player gets hot but I really want to sell to that mass market of consumers wanting the autos as opposed to the occasional person who comes along looking for a non-auto.

masonphillip said:

VandyDan said:

What about low numbered non-auto. They seem like an awfully cheap buy in, even now, that normally see a pretty good surge when the player starts doing better.

I mean, I've seen Sonny Gray non auto Golds going for under 20. I can't imagine these going for less than 40 when he makes his MLB debut.

It also strikes me that people tend not to hoard these up as much at the time of release, and as such the prices aren't excessive. Now, the ceiling on these isn't super high by any means, but they seem to have good upside to me nonetheless.

Click to expand...

I really don't have the data, or experience to know one way or the others. What strikes me though conceptually is that when the product releases, people want the autographs. When the player gets hot, people want the autographs. With guys like Sonny Gray you are going to have BDP, Leaf Metal, Leaf Valiant, Sterling and Elite autographs making for some very affordable autographed cards. It's completely feasible that you could make a nice sale on a non-auto card when a player gets hot but I really want to sell to that mass market of consumers wanting the autos as opposed to the occasional person who comes along looking for a non-auto.

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Disclaimer:There is a good amount of money to be made on more limited autographs (regardless of set) if your player get into a hot streak but for the sake of a general argument I'm not going to discuss that.

It's actually kind of funny that you brought this up as I was going to post about it in the one before, I just didn't have the time. Non-autographed refractors are the exact opposite of what we have talked about so far in this thread. Many people have brought up that the lower end autographs are your best return on investment. For you to get nearly the same kind of return (without working your ass off listing and flooding the market) you're going to have to have some of the rarest non-autographed cards of a player to get the same kind of ROI. If you can buy a Bowman chrome auto for $30 and a player gets hot the card could be worth, let's say $60, that is 100% return on your investment, sure you might be able to buy a regular chrome rookie for two dollars and sell it for four dollars, but not as many people are going to want that card. When players get hot people want to purchase an autograph, it's a statistical fact.

You are certainly correct that folks want autographs more than non-autographs. However, suppose a player does indeed do well in the majors. Topps/UD/Panini will attempt to get as many of those autos out there as they can. If folks just want autographs, they'll go for the newer, cheaper ones. At the very least, they will have many, many options. Just look at how many David Price autos there are out there, or Chapman, etc. Many many options that casual fans and will have if what they are in the market for is a certified auto. However, Topps/Panini/UD, etc cannot make any more low number versions of a players first card.

I mean, look at a guy like Longoria. How many autos does he have in how many products? hundreds? Folks pay the top dollar for his first Bowman not for the auto necessarily (and autograph that can be had for 10% of the price if all you care about is ink) but for the 'firstness' of the card.

Naturally, if what you are looking for is a situation in which you are trying to sell right at the time of call-up, before the guy has so many autos out, sure. What you are saying makes sense. But long term, 3-5+ years into a career, those non-auto low numbered parallels do quite well. I mean, I sold a /25 TC Eric Hosmer non auto for something like $175 with tons of folks offering. He had autos out already. Didn't seem to dampen the market. I'm not saying you can make it rich on blue ref non-autos. But if you buy in at the right time (when everyone else is only buying autos) for the right guys, you'll be able to make a good deal of money. Not saying to do this to the exclusion of selling autograph cards, but I've been able to fund quite a few nice purchases doing just this.

I've been buying all the springers I can. Mostly base an a few ref. Did get a gold for $130. I want a orange as well but this are over $200. I'll buy his base autos all day long at these prices.