Has anyone heard of Taylor Guerrieri?

Yeah me neither. Who is she?

One of my favorite ways to prospect is to compare the card prices of similar prospects. If there is a huge discrepancy, it seems logical there is a big opportunity to turn a profit.

I bought Guerrieri because he was basically the consensus #3 prep arm in the 2011 draft behind Bundy/Bradley, but he has very comparable stuff (plus 98mph heat, hammer curveball with plus potential, developing changeup with average or better potential, developing slider/cutter/two-seamer), but his cards have been available for about a third of the price of Bundy and Bradley. It's no question that B/B both have slightly better stuff than Guerrieri at this point, but is it so much better that they should outsell him by 3X-8X? I certainly don't think so.

Guerrieri was also drafted first by the Rays, who have a pretty impressive resume of developing their young pitching talent (See Price, Moore, Niemann, Hellickson, etc.).

Just for fun, here's my stash (at least to this point). I normally am more likely to build a stash of this size with a hitter rather than a pitcher, but since his buy-in prices are so low, it's hard to imagine myself losing much money even if he comes out this year and absolutely sucks.

Any other Guerrieri fans out there?

Lovely. Did you go for the superfractor? I thought the price was pretty high, considering the average sales of his lower parallels. Nice stash, Ryan.

All The Hype said:

Yeah me neither. Who is she?

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i dont know who she is, but i hope she makes it to the MLB!

Superfractor said:

Lovely. Did you go for the superfractor? Nice stash, Ryan.

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Thanks. I watched but didn't bid because it went beyond what I thought would be a good buy price on it right now. I'm more of a low-end prospector because the ROI is usually better anyway, so it wasn't a big deal to me that I ended up passing on it.

ThoseBackPages said:

All The Hype said:

Yeah me neither. Who is she?

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i dont know who she is, but i hope she makes it to the MLB!

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Me too. I wouldn't mind if she struck out 300 batters this season with a 0.50 ERA and took over the #1 overall prospect spot on her way to the Majors either.

Superfractor said:

Lovely. Did you go for the superfractor? I thought the price was pretty high, considering the average sales of his lower parallels. Nice stash, Ryan.

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I thought the same.

I've picked up some of his Leaf stuff for the same reason (and was considering bidding on the Super until the price went so high.) He fell in the draft which probably lessened prices. I'm not an expert on prospects and only go based on the scouting reports I've found, but he seemed to be a pretty safe buy.

Topnotchsy said:

Superfractor said:

Lovely. Did you go for the superfractor? I thought the price was pretty high, considering the average sales of his lower parallels. Nice stash, Ryan.

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I thought the same.

I've picked up some of his Leaf stuff for the same reason (and was considering bidding on the Super until the price went so high.) He fell in the draft which probably lessened prices. I'm not an expert on prospects and only go based on the scouting reports I've found, but he seemed to be a pretty safe buy.

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It's my understanding that the main reason he fell in the draft was because of a rumor about his character/make-up. All that happened according to Guerrieri himself was he drank a beer before a football game and a security cop confronted him about it. He admitted what he did but obviously still got in trouble for it since he's not of age.

They kept details of the situation a secret until after the draft, and this allowed it to get blown out of proportion to the point where teams questioned his make-up, even though it seems that it was just a dumb, one-time mistake that a lot of teenagers make.

I think he sucks.

I hadn't until i read the back of his card and thought.....wow this guy is good.

I feel like this is the year of a million Matt Garza's.

You know back in 2005, you busted a box of Bowman Draft, you didnt get Jered Weaver, or Ryan Zimmerman, or Ryan Braun, or Stephen Drew...........you got stinkin Matt Garza.

Then 2007 or was it 2008? rolls around and Garza is the MILB pitcher of the year.

2011 Bowman Draft is CHOCK full of first rounders with on card autos. If ANY of these guys jumps to a top 10 MILB player, (and that's what first rounders do) you'll see a $3.48 card jump to $33.48.

There's ALOT of money to be made this year if you can pick the right Matt Garza, who knows Taylor may be the one.

Mudcatsfan said:

I hadn't until i read the back of his card and thought.....wow this guy is good.

I feel like this is the year of a million Matt Garza's.

You know back in 2005, you busted a box of Bowman Draft, you didnt get Jered Weaver, or Ryan Zimmerman, or Ryan Braun, or Stephen Drew...........you got stinkin Matt Garza.

Then 2007 or was it 2008? rolls around and Garza is the MILB pitcher of the year.

2011 Bowman Draft is CHOCK full of first rounders with on card autos. If ANY of these guys jumps to a top 10 MILB player, (and that's what first rounders do) you'll see a $3.48 card jump to $33.48.

There's ALOT of money to be made this year if you can pick the right Matt Garza, who knows Taylor may be the one.

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Great post. This is kind of the way BDP has started to go lately. They may not get the BIG name guys until the following year's Bowman product, but the auto checklist is nothing but 1st round picks. They may not have the hype right now, but you don't get picked in the first round for being a scrub. A good percentage of these guys should turn into very good prospects, and I'd venture to guess that at least half of the guys on the checklist will present at least one time during their professional careers where a profit could be turned on their cards.

It will be interesting to see his ending prices tonight compared to the previous 2 weeks now.

GAbballplayer148 said:

It will be interesting to see his ending prices tonight compared to the previous 2 weeks now.

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:lol: :lol:
yep, choo choo

GAbballplayer148 said:

It will be interesting to see his ending prices tonight compared to the previous 2 weeks now.

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The tougher parallels have already been trending up for the past month, but yeah, FCB Hype Train rolls on.

All I know is I pulled an auto /50 of his out of EEE.

Joshua.Roundtree said:

GAbballplayer148 said:

It will be interesting to see his ending prices tonight compared to the previous 2 weeks now.

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The tougher parallels have already been trending up for the past month, but yeah, FCB Hype Train rolls on.

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The more important question is where prices will be in 6-12 months from now (or even the next couple of years.) If in fact Guerrieri is underrated, the posting here may bump prices up, but would certainly be a favor to other posters. If in fact Guerrieri is appropriately rated or overrated, then this is not so. (Of course actual performance is not a perfect indicator...)

Joshua.Roundtree said:

GAbballplayer148 said:

It will be interesting to see his ending prices tonight compared to the previous 2 weeks now.

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The tougher parallels have already been trending up for the past month, but yeah, FCB Hype Train rolls on.

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I haven't paid attention to anything higher than Blues, but I bought a couple Blues at $30 when it released and those have been pretty steady.

Topnotchsy said:

Joshua.Roundtree said:

GAbballplayer148 said:

It will be interesting to see his ending prices tonight compared to the previous 2 weeks now.

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The tougher parallels have already been trending up for the past month, but yeah, FCB Hype Train rolls on.

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The more important question is where prices will be in 6-12 months from now (or even the next couple of years.) If in fact Guerrieri is underrated, the posting here may bump prices up, but would certainly be a favor to other posters. If in fact Guerrieri is appropriately rated or overrated, then this is not so. (Of course actual performance is not a perfect indicator...)

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Another very insightful post. I, of course, believe he is underrated at current prices...and while this thread's purpose was more just for fun showing off what I've brought together over the last couple months, bringing Guerrieri into the spotlight would help anyone who agrees that he is underrated at current prices.

I was just telling this to someone earlier today, but my feeling is that for the caliber of prospect he is, I believe $10-$13 per chrome base auto and $20-$24 per Refractor Auto would still be very good buys on his cards (approximately 25-30% lower than Archie Bradley and almost 75% lower than Bundy). So you can imagine how pleased I have been to be able to buy for about half of what I thought would be good prices.

WOW, what is sad, is that you just singled handedly raised prices. Do people really just sit around and wait for a post like this?

I have been buying Guerrieri for a while now. Pretty big fan, but as I am big fans of about 50 guys right now.

skrip

Guerreri is one of the guys I was purchasing from Valiant and then later, Chrome.

The first couple of Gold Ref Autos went for under $50, Blue Ref Autos for under $22, Ref Autos for under $7.50 and Base Autos were getting ~$4. I stocked up while I could but not too long after that prices began to go up and I was priced out from where I wanted my buy levels to be, especially on his higher end stuff.

I still think that his lower end stuff may produce a good return and that, in general, lower end Bowman Chromes will produce higher ROIs but for me, it's an issue of liquidity and time. I've found in the past that even when a player gets semi-hot, it's difficult to move 100+ chrome base autos, 50+ chrome refractor autos and then all of the other higher end chromes you may have of them in the potentially short window you may have to move them at a desired price point.

So, for me, while I may pick up some lower end Bowman Chrome Autos, if I'm looking to invest $3K+ into someone's Chrome Autos, I'm going to weight my purchases towards their higher end parallels.

why have this topic to raise the price on the cards that you are chasing, this topic makes little sense.

mwashuc06 said:

why have this topic to raise the price on the cards that you are chasing, this topic makes little sense.

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because he's done buying. :lol: