How long until the high-end "game used" market crashes?

The Clemente tag card thread is exactly why I don't collect "game used" cards.
There's too much doubt, and it will eventually destroy the value of most of these cards, as none can be proven real.

No one knows which swatches came from a player's jersey, or if it was even used in a game.
There are too many fakes, and at the risk of offending many of you, I believe that investing in these cards is foolish, because the market will eventually crash.

And I realize that the autograph market is full of forgeries as well, but at least most can be authenticated with confidence.
No one can authenticate a swatch after it's cut from a jersey and leaves the card manufacturer.

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

I kind of agree. I still love patch cards and have plenty of nice expensive ones in my collection. However I'm at the point where I don't even wanna know the reality, I just want to believe they are real so the hobby and the value can remain there and almost roll over to it. It frustrates me so much when a card company on the back of the card does not say specifically that the piece of authentic memorbilia was used in a proffessional mlb game by the player listed on the card. Its like they word it oh so perfectly sometimes just to cover themselves, very frustrating but hey what can ya do?

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

Ya it's so much easier to just collect game used jerseys. They aren't that much more money, and you can actually tell if they are real.

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

if this were a Poll, i would vote 2008

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

People have always realized that. When UD had the first Ruth bat card, there was great fanfare in the hobby and even the mainstream media with the complete provenance and pictures of it being cut up and everything. But when was the last time you heard about even the most tantalizing piece being sawn up? Maybe the Josh Gibson bat, which wasn't even GU? Since it can never be proven, that risk is already priced in, as is the sheer quantity of material these days. I doubt many people are 'investing' in the same way they do with prospects. They are more end-user type cards. Short of Richard McWilliams coming out and saying that all the 'thin pinstripe' Ruth jersey cards they put out actually came from an old mattress liner, I think it's a pretty stable pricing model.

Besides, it's not 'going to' crash, it already crashed years ago. When GU cards started appearing, Rey Ordonez jerseys sold for $150-200. Now players on his level (defined as a star for a NY team) are tough to sell for 1% of that price. For cards like Ruth and Gehrig, there will always be people who want to buy them, and if nothing else they are rare cards, usually #/100 or less. A plain old piece of cardboard with Ruth on it #/100 or less has some value, and adding a jersey or bat to it will not hurt it at all, unless it's definitely known to be false.

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

ThoseBackPages said:

if this were a Poll, i would vote 2008

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LOL, I would say 2004. I mean at national size type shows you can find dollar gu/auto boxes.

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

XdanX said:

ThoseBackPages said:

if this were a Poll, i would vote 2008

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LOL, I would say 2004. I mean at national size type shows you can find dollar gu/auto boxes.

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Yeah, you're both right.
But I don't mean the common jersey cards.
Collectors and investors keep spending small fortunes on patch cards and vintage jersey cards.
It just amazes me that people spend so much money on cards that have a good chance of being fake.

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

ThoseBackPages said:

if this were a Poll, i would vote 2008

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I was going to say 8 years ago, but I can agree with your answer.

I personally haven't pursued game used ever since the first time I saw event worn on the back of a card. As far as we know, these could be jerseys right off of mlb.com and the collectors wouldn't know the difference. My personal feelings are that none of it is legit, so that is why I stay away

What about products like Famous Fabrics?

Companies who market their cards authenticity?

I don't differentiate between 'manufactured' patches and regular patches the vast majority of the time given the problems all GU has. However at least manufactured patches are factory original.

I'm generally not a big believer in autos either. If I want an auto or a GU, I get full-blown memorabilia.

Re: How long until the "game used" card market crashes?

smapdi said:

A plain old piece of cardboard with Ruth on it #/100 or less has some value, and adding a jersey or bat to it will not hurt it at all, unless it's definitely known to be false.

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I think this is it right here. Except for the definitely known to be false thing. They have those manufactured patches, known to be not real, and they sell like hot cakes.

As for the market crash, I think the player matters a lot. People pay quite a premium for guys like Clemente who weren't around long enough or recently enough to have lots of jerseys to cut up. The value of those guys would probably take quite a hit. I don't think it will matter that much for guys like Rickey. Sometimes a hot new manufactured patch will sell for more than an older genuine patch #/25. And if Rickey had a 98 Crusade Red (or whatever), it would sell for more than any game used card. People aren't really buying the card for the jersey, the jersey is just a cool little addition.


Even if I thought all jersey cards were fake, there would be no way for me to not pick up this one to go with the other two blacks...



If you have a common plain jersey card it's hard to get $1 for it. The market on the jersey porton of cards crashed long ago. People will always want a low #'d card of a popular player, even if it has no jersey, or even if it has something silly like a stamp or coin... or manufactured patch.

I thank you guys that don't buy the Game Used Patch cards.. Just makes it cheaper for those of us that do..

:lol:

(see link below)

I hate to admit it, but your right. Game used cards, especially patches, used to be my favorite. Now when I see a sick patch on ebay... the first thing I think is "is it fake?" but I still buy some, like my dice-k sterling patch... the patches are ridiculous, but its a 1/1, so even if they are fake (which I dont think they are) theres no other one of that card out there. So I tend to think that premium game used cards that are 1/1s will still sell for a lot even with skepticism of faking.

12-12-12 at 12:12

Reason I dumped my entire HOF gameused PC 5+ years ago.....
Writting was on the wall then!

Its been this for a while already:
[youtube:3tkvt4z2]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DzK7QA0bqA[/youtube:3tkvt4z2]

But does anyone really think the GU market/interest could get worse than what it already is? I don't see how.

uniquebaseballcards said:

But does anyone really think the GU market/interest could get worse than what it already is? I don't see how.

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I dont believe it can. Some star GU sell for under 3$ (not including shipping or sets that JUST came out.)

But then again, GU/autos are so overproduced (for most players) who the hell wants them anymore (other than player collectors) I mean if you collect someone that different, but I sold off my random GU/auto collection because they just arent the same when you pull 3 per hobby box.

Pinbreaker said:

I thank you guys that don't buy the Game Used Patch cards.. Just makes it cheaper for those of us that do..

:lol:

(see link below)

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Seriously I agree 1000% with this, if you guys have ZERO trust and think card companies will put years of jail time on the line for themselves that's really awesome, do you think you guys can spread the word about this? I'd love for jersey cards to keep falling

homerun28aa said:

Pinbreaker said:

I thank you guys that don't buy the Game Used Patch cards.. Just makes it cheaper for those of us that do..

:lol:

(see link below)

Click to expand...

Seriously I agree 1000% with this, if you guys have ZERO trust and think card companies will put years of jail time on the line for themselves that's really awesome, do you think you guys can spread the word about this? I'd love for jersey cards to keep falling

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I will second this. If any of you guys have Hof Game used Patch cards (Wool preferably and 2005 and back or even some Topps sterling 2009 and back ) for sale Please contact me . I will take the card and the Worry off your hands.
High end GU will be around for a long long time. Honestly if I dont collect game used cards im out of the hobby (not sports). For the same reasons people get chills with autos they pick up I do with Older game used.