Are You Better Than a Professional Baseball Player?

[UMich92]

No way man...if you threw 80mph in most high schools, that would put you among the top 5% of pitchers in the conference (and even so, MOST high schoolers wouldn't be able to hit that effectively and consistently). I'd guess the average high school pitch speed to be about 72mph. I'd guess that the average high schooler can hit anything about 74 or lower with consistency, and anything above that takes one of the better hitting high schoolers (to hit it consistently).


Back to my point, there's a massive overestimation of pitch speed these days.

When you ask someone how hard they throw, you can basically plan on subtracting 7-12 mph from their answer to get the truth.


I mean, people have told me their 5'4" 11-year-old is hitting 79 on the radar gun. Let me help you out here: No he's not.
A) Sports Illustrated would be all over a story like that
B) His All Star team would have won the Little League World Series and probably the World Baseball Classic too, because at a pitching mound 46 feet away, that's equivalent to about 104 mph


Bottom line, humans are not radar guns, and I've found that most humans would make absolutely horrible radar guns if they tried.

So true. About 15 years ago, we had a United Way day at work and there were multiple games set up with various donations to play (dunk tanks, etc). They also had a radar gun set up to guess how hard you threw. It was much like the carnival type setup. Anyway, a coworker who ran track in college thought he had a great arm and would be able to throw as hard as me. At the time, I was throwing low 80's topping out at 85. So later in the day when the festivities were done, a group of us went back and tested how good our perception of speed was. In our group of 6, only 2 of us were close to accurate as a guy who knew he had a wet noodle for an arm predicted he wouldn't break 50 and I was able to hit 80 after many pitches to get loose. Most of the group was about 10 mph too high in their estimations. And the guy that ran track? He hit 70 with much effort and strain.

How hard you throw is the baseball equivalent to the workout question "how much do you bench?" Almost universally over-estimated, sometimes intentionally but mostly just from a lack of perception.

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

No way man...if you threw 80mph in most high schools, that would put you among the top 5% of pitchers in the conference (and even so, MOST high schoolers wouldn't be able to hit that effectively and consistently). I'd guess the average high school pitch speed to be about 72mph. I'd guess that the average high schooler can hit anything about 74 or lower with consistency, and anything above that takes one of the better hitting high schoolers (to hit it consistently).



Back to my point, there's a massive overestimation of pitch speed these days.

When you ask someone how hard they throw, you can basically plan on subtracting 7-12 mph from their answer to get the truth.


I mean, people have told me their 5'4" 11-year-old is hitting 79 on the radar gun. Let me help you out here: No he's not.
A) Sports Illustrated would be all over a story like that
B) His All Star team would have won the Little League World Series and probably the World Baseball Classic too, because at a pitching mound 46 feet away, that's equivalent to about 104 mph


Bottom line, humans are not radar guns, and I've found that most humans would make absolutely horrible radar guns if they tried.

I think a lot of this depends where you live and where you play. I grew up and played in Los Angeles, where the competition is pretty fantastic. In my high school league (not even one of the better leagues in SoCal), while of course not all of the teams were equal, the top half of the teams in the league all had multiple guys that would sit in the mid 80's and a couple of guys that would touch the low 90's. You would see the same thing playing summer ball in SoCal, and the talent was even more concentrated.

But, if you grew up in an area where baseball isnt the most popular sport or a year round type of thing, I would agree that the low 80-'s might be the pinnacle for most high school pitchers.

 

[Frow]

No way man...if you threw 80mph in most high schools, that would put you among the top 5% of pitchers in the conference (and even so, MOST high schoolers wouldn't be able to hit that effectively and consistently). I'd guess the average high school pitch speed to be about 72mph. I'd guess that the average high schooler can hit anything about 74 or lower with consistency, and anything above that takes one of the better hitting high schoolers (to hit it consistently).



Back to my point, there's a massive overestimation of pitch speed these days.

When you ask someone how hard they throw, you can basically plan on subtracting 7-12 mph from their answer to get the truth.


I mean, people have told me their 5'4" 11-year-old is hitting 79 on the radar gun. Let me help you out here: No he's not.
A) Sports Illustrated would be all over a story like that
B) His All Star team would have won the Little League World Series and probably the World Baseball Classic too, because at a pitching mound 46 feet away, that's equivalent to about 104 mph


Bottom line, humans are not radar guns, and I've found that most humans would make absolutely horrible radar guns if they tried.

They'd also look pretty weird having a cop holding a human out the window while on the side of the highway.

 

[markakis8]

No way man...if you threw 80mph in most high schools, that would put you among the top 5% of pitchers in the conference (and even so, MOST high schoolers wouldn't be able to hit that effectively and consistently). I'd guess the average high school pitch speed to be about 72mph. I'd guess that the average high schooler can hit anything about 74 or lower with consistency, and anything above that takes one of the better hitting high schoolers (to hit it consistently).



Back to my point, there's a massive overestimation of pitch speed these days.

When you ask someone how hard they throw, you can basically plan on subtracting 7-12 mph from their answer to get the truth.


I mean, people have told me their 5'4" 11-year-old is hitting 79 on the radar gun. Let me help you out here: No he's not.
A) Sports Illustrated would be all over a story like that
B) His All Star team would have won the Little League World Series and probably the World Baseball Classic too, because at a pitching mound 46 feet away, that's equivalent to about 104 mph


Bottom line, humans are not radar guns, and I've found that most humans would make absolutely horrible radar guns if they tried.

Well then your high school league sucked, and AWFULLY sucked. B/c I played varsity as a hitter/pitcher for 3 years and I coached Varsity high school baseball for 3 years....and there were very few games where the starting pitcher (either my teammate/me/the kid I coached/my opponent) didn't touch 80 MPH with his fastball. Now 80 MPH for a high school pitcher, to me, is average. If you are sitting 84-85, then you are above average. If you are sitting above that, you can sign your name on the dotted line for some sort of scholarship to any school, it's that simple.

Sure there are kids that throw mid to low 70's, but they were on the weaker teams mostly.

I'm not trying to be mean but I've played at the highest level you can play without going pro...and I've coached high school ball, against a couple dozen baseball teams. I would say the average high school starter could easily hit an 80 MPH fastball.

 

[markakis8]

So true. About 15 years ago, we had a United Way day at work and there were multiple games set up with various donations to play (dunk tanks, etc). They also had a radar gun set up to guess how hard you threw. It was much like the carnival type setup. Anyway, a coworker who ran track in college thought he had a great arm and would be able to throw as hard as me. At the time, I was throwing low 80's topping out at 85. So later in the day when the festivities were done, a group of us went back and tested how good our perception of speed was. In our group of 6, only 2 of us were close to accurate as a guy who knew he had a wet noodle for an arm predicted he wouldn't break 50 and I was able to hit 80 after many pitches to get loose. Most of the group was about 10 mph too high in their estimations. And the guy that ran track? He hit 70 with much effort and strain.

How hard you throw is the baseball equivalent to the workout question "how much do you bench?" Almost universally over-estimated, sometimes intentionally but mostly just from a lack of perception.

First of all, the radar guns at carnival type games are most likely rigged. I once threw 74 MPH after I had baseball practice at a carnival in high school when I was known to top out at 88, consistently in 83-84 range. If it is a "guess your speed' type ordeal - it's most likely rigged.

Second of all, what does this have to do with high school baseball experience. I would love to hear the couple dozen guys that played varsity baseball here for at least two years and have them tell us all how many times they faced a pitcher who was at least throw 80 MPH. I would guarantee the number is higher than 75%.

 

[predatorkj]

First of all, the radar guns at carnival type games are most likely rigged. I once threw 74 MPH after I had baseball practice at a carnival in high school when I was known to top out at 88, consistently in 83-84 range. If it is a "guess your speed' type ordeal - it's most likely rigged.

Second of all, what does this have to do with high school baseball experience. I would love to hear the couple dozen guys that played varsity baseball here for at least two years and have them tell us all how many times they faced a pitcher who was at least throw 80 MPH. I would guarantee the number is higher than 75%.

Uh...damn near every pitcher on our team could at least hit the low 80's. But playing in Houston and being in Texas, 80 mph isn't much. Like people have said, maybe average. You gotta remember a lot of these kids down here play baseball year around. I mean you have kids who just have the talent and can make the team. I played both football and baseball. But I was never exceptional at either. Because the kids I was playing with and against played year around and took it very seriously. And had been doing so since little league. Down here, baseball and football are taken very seriously at the high school level. Football the most of course. But even baseball.

 

[UMich92]

First of all, the radar guns at carnival type games are most likely rigged. I once threw 74 MPH after I had baseball practice at a carnival in high school when I was known to top out at 88, consistently in 83-84 range. If it is a "guess your speed' type ordeal - it's most likely rigged.

Second of all, what does this have to do with high school baseball experience. I would love to hear the couple dozen guys that played varsity baseball here for at least two years and have them tell us all how many times they faced a pitcher who was at least throw 80 MPH. I would guarantee the number is higher than 75%.

First, it was set up "like a carnival game", but the gun was reading correct as far as I could tell. At the time, I was throwing low 80's and topping out at 85 pitching in the Skyscraper League in Chicago and I hit 80/81 on the gun at the game.

Second, my comments related to how most non-baseball players overestimate how fast a pitch is. Unless you've played and/or watched a lot of games, it is quite hard to recognize the differences in 50 to 60, 70 to 80, 80 to 90.

Lastly, I played varsity in HS and made all-conference and all-area teams, wasn't quite good enough to walk on in the Big 10, and have played in semi-pro leagues whose teams were mainly D3/NAIA/JUCO, with few ex-MILB mixed in. I believe the Skyscraper League had a 4 or 5 ex-MILB limit. My teams catcher hit 0.180 in the NYPL league before getting released by the Tigers. Most guys in our league sat mid-80s and thus the discussion was often who in our league hit 90. In discussing the topic, it really seems there was a significant disparity in the background of players from metro area teams and rural teams. Those of us, like me, who grew up in small to mid-sized towns in the midwest seemed to only have a couple guys who consistently hit low 80s with a handful of guys in the entire conference hitting high 80s. The % of guys we faced who hit 80 was definitely below 50%, probably closer to 33%. And the percent of guys who consistently hit 85 was maybe 15% give or take.

 

[markakis8]

First, it was set up "like a carnival game", but the gun was reading correct as far as I could tell. At the time, I was throwing low 80's and topping out at 85 pitching in the Skyscraper League in Chicago and I hit 80/81 on the gun at the game.

Second, my comments related to how most non-baseball players overestimate how fast a pitch is. Unless you've played and/or watched a lot of games, it is quite hard to recognize the differences in 50 to 60, 70 to 80, 80 to 90.

Lastly, I played varsity in HS and made all-conference and all-area teams, wasn't quite good enough to walk on in the Big 10, and have played in semi-pro leagues whose teams were mainly D3/NAIA/JUCO, with few ex-MILB mixed in. I believe the Skyscraper League had a 4 or 5 ex-MILB limit. My teams catcher hit 0.180 in the NYPL league before getting released by the Tigers. Most guys in our league sat mid-80s and thus the discussion was often who in our league hit 90. In discussing the topic, it really seems there was a significant disparity in the background of players from metro area teams and rural teams. Those of us, like me, who grew up in small to mid-sized towns in the midwest seemed to only have a couple guys who consistently hit low 80s with a handful of guys in the entire conference hitting high 80s. The % of guys we faced who hit 80 was definitely below 50%, probably closer to 33%. And the percent of guys who consistently hit 85 was maybe 15% give or take.

Ok, I can see the area you live in coming in to play - even though I grew up in a small rural type area as well but I still think, even if the % of kids that topped 80 MPH was closer to 33%, that it would not be difficult to hit. There are adjustments to be made, sure, but it's not that difficult to adjust to 80 MPH as it is to say 85-90 MPH. The JV guys could hit 80 MPH no problem.

 

[marterburn]

I played HS ball in non-Detroit area Michigan. I can say thay our ace threw 88ish and he got a JuCo scholarship (and blew out his elbow, but not the point). He was one of the 2 hardest throwers in the conference, and most were much slower. I'd say there were likely only 5-6 guys with an average fastball speed at 80 or above.

It's my beleif that skills are HIGHLY regional, and we were in a below average region.

Sent from my SCH-I400 using Sports Cards by Freedom Card Board.com

 

[UMich92]

I played HS ball in non-Detroit area Michigan. I can say thay our ace threw 88ish and he got a JuCo scholarship (and blew out his elbow, but not the point). He was one of the 2 hardest throwers in the conference, and most were much slower. I'd say there were likely only 5-6 guys with an average fastball speed at 80 or above.

It's my beleif that skills are HIGHLY regional, and we were in a below average region.

Sent from my SCH-I400 using Sports Cards by Freedom Card Board.com

Makes sense as the upper midwest isn't exactly a baseball hotbed. Anyway, your experience sounds similar to my conference on the west side of the state. There were probably 3 guys who could touch 90 occasionally. One went to Valpo, one had no clue where the ball was going (he played FB at MSU by the way), and I don't recall what happened to the third.

 

[moxacaine]

We had one guy on our team who was hitting the low 90's as a freshman. I was a Junior so i only played two seasons with him but he was basically unhittable especially with his decent curve. Last i heard he got his gf knocked up and ended up turning down a few scholarship offers.

 

[predatorkj]

Well supposedly, and this is only based on what I have read before(none of this is my own data), the three biggest hotbeds of baseball talent are in California, Texas, and Florida. I'll play along with that because then I think about population in those states and it's through the roof. Much similar to the situation you face when you compare a 3a or 4a varsity team's talent level to that of a 5a or bigger. The bigger schools have a bigger pool to draw from. But it doesn't explain other places with high population. What about New York?

 

[Hallsgator]

Well supposedly, and this is only based on what I have read before(none of this is my own data), the three biggest hotbeds of baseball talent are in California, Texas, and Florida. I'll play along with that because then I think about population in those states and it's through the roof. Much similar to the situation you face when you compare a 3a or 4a varsity team's talent level to that of a 5a or bigger. The bigger schools have a bigger pool to draw from. But it doesn't explain other places with high population. What about New York?

Too far north to produce the same amount and quality of baseball players. Big difference between southern and northern baseball in terms of talent and overall numbers.

Not to mention, most of the population is located in the city. Not much room for ballparks and inner city kids don't play much baseball to begin with.

 

[marterburn]

Makes sense as the upper midwest isn't exactly a baseball hotbed. Anyway, your experience sounds similar to my conference on the west side of the state. There were probably 3 guys who could touch 90 occasionally. One went to Valpo, one had no clue where the ball was going (he played FB at MSU by the way), and I don't recall what happened to the third.

The fastest I saw in HS was a guy on a summer league team who pitched for the travel team our 'ace' was on. I was definitely not good enough to be on that team, as they played in regional tournaments and such, and did pretty well.

I mean... my biggest achievement was being Academic All-Conference (maybe it was Academic All-State, I don't remember), which has little to do with on-field play. Anyhow, but we played them, and their guy, he was the closer, was getting a few innings in against us since their team was up big. That day, the gun supposedly read 93 on his fastball. He threw 3 curveballs to me and I was done.

 

[predatorkj]

Curveballs at 93 mph? Holy smokes....

 

[TNP777]

Curveballs at 93 mph? Holy smokes....

shoot - if I was standing up against a 93 mph fastball, the dude could mix in a curve with a beach ball and I'd bail.

 

[marterburn]

Curveballs at 93 mph? Holy smokes....

No no. I was sitting on a fastball with the hopes of seeing it what it looked at first hand. So i had no chance on that curve...it wasn't even that good of a curve, but it didnt matter.

Sent from my SCH-I400 using Sports Cards by Freedom Card Board.com

 

[beefycheddar]

I stood at plate when someone was throwing around 97 and no chance in hell I could have hit it. I had a rough time taking BP with Cape League players.

 

[predatorkj]

No no. I was sitting on a fastball with the hopes of seeing it what it looked at first hand. So i had no chance on that curve...it wasn't even that good of a curve, but it didnt matter.

Sent from my SCH-I400 using Sports Cards by Freedom Card Board.com

Just messin with ya man. Sorry...figured with the smiley everyone would know...

 

[predatorkj]

I stood at plate when someone was throwing around 97 and no chance in hell I could have hit it. I had a rough time taking BP with Cape League players.

Dude, if you can buy a pitching machine or go to a cage where they offer something in this speed, you can get your timing right. That's all it is. Like I said, what makes a guy MLB ready is being able to guess pitch location as well as what's being thrown. Because a guy that can throw you a 90 mph fastball and then buckle your knees with a 76 mph changeup will blow your mind. That is something you truly have to be gifted at. But the timing for hitting pitches is just practice. Trust me...go into a cage and put it on the highest setting. Then go down to the 70 mph stuff and you'll hit everything. It's like everything slows down.