Billy Hamilton = Vince Coleman

[matfanofold]

Recently, I saw someone make a refrence that Hamilton will most likely equate to Coleman, and although I can not remember the exact words nor what message board I read it on, I was/am pretty sure it was actually being used as a put down to marginalize all the hype and recent price spikes in his cardstock. Now, I am not really interested in disputing or validating the comparison, but rather interested in 'what if'...

What if Hamilton starts his MLB career the same way Coleman does and averages ~110 swipes per year, ~110 runs scored, 160 - 170 hits, and a ~.270 BA. Everything else being equal (including defense), what do you think will happen with his cardstock? Not having Hendersons shadow on him will be a big plus, and if he can get a similar type of reception that Coleman did (ROY, MVP considerations) is it not out of line to assume the best has yet to come with regards to his cardstock prices even if he has a "Coleman type career' to begin with?

 

[jbhofmann]

110 SB in 2013 = 220 SB in 1980's

 

[matfanofold]

110 SB in 2013 = 220 SB in 1980's

I'm not so sure of that, pitchers were just as aware then as now and the 80's/90's had some of the most deadly arms ever to sit behind the plate. It seems that dynamics of a SB has been lightly used in recent times, but I do not think baseball has evolved to ignore his incredible talent and surely they wil ltake full advantage of the game changing speed this kid has to its fullest. But I do agree that someone who swipes 100+ bases now will be just as awesome as if someone stole 200 in the 1980's, but that boils down to perception imo..

 

[19braves77]

Am on the Hamilton hype train but Theo Bowe might even be faster then Hamilton. If Bowe ever learns to hit above average, look out.

 

[matfanofold]

Am on the Hamilton hype train but Theo Bowe might even be faster then Hamilton. If Bowe ever learns to hit above average, look out.

Interesting, how is Bowes base path dicipline compared to Hamilton?

 

[markakis8]

If he steals over 100 bases in 2013, his cards will go up - not sure how much, depends on his AVG and OBP. I know this, I love the trade I made with the Reds in the first year of my dynasty with the Orioles on MLB the Show 12.

Nolan Reimold, Luis Ayala, and Jonathan Schoop for Billy Hamilton and Logan Ondursek (sp?). In 2014, I moved Hamilton to LF and he has 68 steals in 85 games, hitting .313. But, that's a video game

 

[jhand13]

I agree, if he can perform at that level with no equal like Coleman had with Henderson he could be a really big deal.

 

[markakis8]

Am on the Hamilton hype train but Theo Bowe might even be faster then Hamilton. If Bowe ever learns to hit above average, look out.

I'll admit i had never heard of the guy before you mentioned his name, but looking at this stats, what was wrong with 2012? He hit .290 and had OBP of .370. That's not too bad for a developing player with great speed.

 

[19braves77]

Bowe only struck out 91 times in 459 at bats and like Billy still learning how to read pitchers.

 

[Lars]

If Hamilton up Jose Reyes numbers as a centerfielder, there will be interest if the Reds are contending. If the Reds aren't making a playoff push and Hamilton is more like Juan Pierre, then the interest will be meh.

 

[yclipper21]

What up Deshields Jr?? He stole over 100 bags this past year, and has some pop in his bat. About 2 years younger. Similar walk, and strikeout #'s.


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[matfanofold]

What up Deshields Jr?? He stole over 100 bags this past year, and has some pop in his bat. About 2 years younger. Similar walk, and strikeout #'s.


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I know a few who are stocking up big time on DDjr. At current prices they feel the upside will be large eventually, at some point...

 

[shayscards79]

I sold all the Hamilton's I pulled right away. Not worth holding because I subscribe to that theory in part.

 

[morgoth]

I wrote the Coleman comparison to say just that if he is even as awesome as Coleman was his card values won't hold long. Henderson hit a lot of HR's and played forever, most speed guys aren't very good by year 10 as their legs go. He might be a good guy to short in his first season if there is hype and he is in a pennant race but I don't think holding long is a good idea for a player with his skill set.

 

[slaneyjason]

I think if he puts up similar numbers to Coleman, he will be a Yankee in no time lol. He should be fun to watch... I'm not selling yet. Who know where this will go?

 

[VandyDan]

I think that long term, his cards won't go up much in value. But he will get the call up, sportscenter hype for a couple weeks and see a spike for that. Like a lot of prospecting, the goal is to buy at release, knowing the player can do something that will make unsophisticated buyers buy at a short window premium, and sell at that window. Since BH will debut next year, with a good amount of fanfare, he will be a good prospect. Low risk, low reward due to the high buy in and relative ceiling for BC autos (100ish for base, barring exceptional circumstances). I think if you buy at 40, you can be confident in selling for 75-90 for a few weeks after he gets called up. Mind you , I hold zero Hamilton and plan to get none.

Long term hold? I don't think his skill set can maintain prices above 50. I mean, David Price BC 1st year autos are under 30, and he is a cy young contender and three time all star.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Just having steals makes him a one-dimensional player and speed fades either with age or injury. He'll need something else to back it up.

 

[James52411]

You cannot steal 1st base, so the big question is whether he can get on base enough to steal 2nd and 3rd. Also, the slide step has made it tougher to steal. Anyway, "get back in there and sell! Sell!"

 

[aarne13]

Another player to keep an eye on is DJ Davis. He scored an 80 on speed. Played in 3 levels last year as an 18-yr old.

 

[jbhofmann]

If you are selling now, you are losing money. The first base autos were getting around $60....whether you think he'll do anything in Cincy is moot. He will get called up and they will be selling for much more than they are now (last couple I saw were in the $20s).