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Thread: HOF pitching stats?

  1. #16
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    HOF pitching stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by 200lbhockeyplayer View Post
    ...and a mere six years gives you Koufax in the HOF.
    Precedent was actually set when Dizzy Dean got in after only pitching 5 full seasons (and only one other partial season of note).

    Personally I don't think Johan will make the Hall but he's the type of player I feel deserves it. He was the best pitcher in baseball for quite some time.

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    What about Lincy? A stretch of 2 Cys in 4 rather dominant years. If he has a couple more above average seasons, is he in on a Koufax theory (short term utter dominance)?

    I argue with my fellow sabr losers on whether or not he is a candidate quite often, actually.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VandyDan View Post
    What about Lincy? A stretch of 2 Cys in 4 rather dominant years. If he has a couple more above average seasons, is he in on a Koufax theory (short term utter dominance)?

    I argue with my fellow sabr losers on whether or not he is a candidate quite often, actually.
    That's an intriguing question...

    My opinion is that he lost too much, too quickly. However he still has plenty of time to turn it around.

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    HOF pitching stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by VandyDan View Post
    What about Lincy? A stretch of 2 Cys in 4 rather dominant years. If he has a couple more above average seasons, is he in on a Koufax theory (short term utter dominance)?

    I argue with my fellow sabr losers on whether or not he is a candidate quite often, actually.
    I think that the Koufax level dominance is only a ticket to the Hall if the player loses dominance because of injury. If Lincecum cannot return to playing at a high level he will fall into the Doc Gooden category of pitcher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Topnotchsy View Post
    I think that the Koufax level dominance is only a ticket to the Hall if the player loses dominance because of injury. If Lincecum cannot return to playing at a high level he will fall into the Doc Gooden category of pitcher.
    What if it turns out he was hurt these past few years?

    Or what say he has a couple 15-7 seasons in his early-mid 30s, with around 1 k/inning, and an era under 3.50?

    I mean, if no one was as dominant for those 5-6 years as Koufax, no one was as dominant as Big Time Timmy Jims in those 2-3 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VandyDan View Post
    What if it turns out he was hurt these past few years?

    Or what say he has a couple 15-7 seasons in his early-mid 30s, with around 1 k/inning, and an era under 3.50?

    I mean, if no one was as dominant for those 5-6 years as Koufax, no one was as dominant as Big Time Timmy Jims in those 2-3 years.
    There is no doubt that Timmy 2 times had a stretch of 2 great years & 2 good years, but he went down hill quickly after that. Honestly, I am not sure what the problem is, but at 29 he has plenty of time to turn it around. I agree that if he can get back to form and have a stretch of 4 or 5 good years of pitching, he may get consideration. However, based solely on his 4 year stretch of 2 great years & 2 good years, it's simply not enough.

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    Lincecum's Era+ from 2008-2009 was 170. His Era+ from 2010-2011 was only 120. So, he was dominant for 2 years and good for 2 years. He has not been good since, he is not a hall of famer as of now.

    Johan's era+ from 2002-2010 was 150. He IS a hall of famer.
    Collecting Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins

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    Quote Originally Posted by RyanHowardCollector6 View Post
    Lincecum's Era+ from 2008-2009 was 170. His Era+ from 2010-2011 was only 120. So, he was dominant for 2 years and good for 2 years. He has not been good since, he is not a hall of famer as of now.

    Johan's era+ from 2002-2010 was 150. He IS a hall of famer.
    If there was a hall of very, very good then I would put Johan in today, however I am not sure voters will give him the nod in the hall. He was a awesome pitcher with a few exceptional years, but aside from his CY awards (which are note worthy), I'm just not sure the totality of his career has that 'wow' factor with regards to longevity and accomplishment/milestones...
    Last edited by matfanofold; 08-20-2013 at 10:36 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by D-Lite View Post
    Wins give you the Don Suttons of the HoF.

    Sabermatrians give you the Blylevens and Gossages.

    I'd say there's a definite shift in thinking these days. The counting stats will get you noticed but not in, especially as a reliever. 300 wins, 4000 K's, 3+ Cy Youngs, should all get you in (unless you're Clemens).

    For me, the interesting cases for pitchers:
    Mussina - had a sustained run of VERY good and has very good counting stats for a modern day pitcher (270 wins, 2813 K's, 3.68 ERA), but no Cy's
    Lincecum - best days already behind him it seems, but absolutely dominant for a short duration, winning 2 Cy's and 2 WS
    Halladay - 7 times in top 5 Cy voting (2x 1st, 2x 2nd), very good K/BB%, but not going to get the counting stats (201 wins, 2101 K's)

    We're not probably going to see many more 300 win pitchers and I think that makes something like Mussina's 270 a big number. Pettitte is close at 253, but hasn't had the dominance (though did Sutton really have that either?). Thinking will have to shift if the HoF is to induct more starters.
    Incredibly well thought out response.

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    Quote Originally Posted by matfanofold View Post
    If there was a hall of very, very good then I would put Johan in today, however I am not sure voters will give him the nod in the hall. He was a awesome pitcher with a few exceptional years, but aside from his CY awards (which are note worthy), I'm just not sure the totality of his career has that 'wow' factor with regards to longevity and accomplishment/milestones...
    I see what you are saying and I agree he won't get in. I still think he is deserving. The way I see it is: If he hung around for 5 years of mediocre pitching 4.00 ERA and got to 200 wins and 2750 strikeouts, bloating his era to over 3.50 it would increase his odds of getting in, even though in reality it wouldn't make what he did more impressive.
    Collecting Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins

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    Roy Halladay:

    2001-2011:
    175 wins-78 losses, 2.98 ERA, 64 CG!!!!, 19 SHUTOUTS!!!, 148 ERA+

    No doubt hall of famer.
    Collecting Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins

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    HOF pitching stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by matfanofold View Post
    Like it or not, Wins are one of, if not the most important statistic a pitcher can have in his favor. Sure, it is a team statistic but speaks volumes about a pitchers field generalship. There are intangibles in the game that can not be measured by a abacus, and some pitchers command these intangibles above and beyond others. This translates to W's... So what the op calls arbitrary is, in reality, very important and telling...

    As for the direct question, voters like pitchers who are winners.
    I couldn't disagree more about the wins, a great pitcher on a bad team can have 8-10 wins, and an average pitcher on a good team will have 13-15 wins Look at lance Lynn 18 wins last year and 13 so far this year. Average pitcher at best

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    Re: HOF pitching stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by cards01fan View Post
    I couldn't disagree more about the wins, a great pitcher on a bad team can have 8-10 wins, and an average pitcher on a good team will have 13-15 wins Look at lance Lynn 18 wins last year and 13 so far this year. Average pitcher at best
    But that will never get him to 250-300 wins over a career.

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    HOF pitching stats?

    ? If he average 13 a year for 20 years? That's 260?

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    HOF pitching stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by cards01fan View Post
    ? If he average 13 a year for 20 years? That's 260?
    I think (though I may be wrong) that what he is saying is that over times wins even out and a pitcher will largely regress to the mean so an average pitcher will ultimately have an average number of wins or close to it (multiplies by the number of seasons played).

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