I'm a prospector, can I throw away my cards from the year 20??

Where is the bar on the timeline that delineates what releases are TOTALLY tapped out? 2005? 2006? Chaz Roe isn't ever going to be anything, so 2005 is basically all dried up. Everything that was ever going to happen, HAS happened. Mat Gamel is never going to make it in all likelihood; is there ANYTHING from 2006 that hasn't hit yet?

See my point? What year/set can we guarantee will never produce any more value?

Please leave out the possibility that someone pulls a once-in-a-generation Josh Hamilton thing.

I buy bulk if price right

I think anyone from 2006 and back, who hasn't made it yet, should be safe to remove from inventory. If a player was 17 in 2007, then he would be 24 now; a decent age to go to the bigs. If he was 20, then he is probably not going to get very far. I would go through my stuff, and see who from your 2006 cards and back haven't made it to the majors, and let them fly. If they are in the majors, and are before the age of 28, I'd give them a chance.

Never!! David kelton, chip ambres and Austin kearns could break out anytime!!

Any prospect who is 25 and up is out of my prospect box

24 is the cut-off age for me

bobthewondercat77 said:

Never!! David kelton, chip ambres and Austin kearns could break out anytime!!

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Who?

Cyle Hankerd is gonna do big things. Some day.

MAYBE

You never know...

How many years did it take Mariano Rivera or David Ortiz rookies to reach the height???

Also Mark McGuire??? (I know steroids) but for years his rookie could be had for less then $4 then they skyrocketed to $100...

Not quite the same concept, but similar. I have traded away signed cards of common active players, because they hadn't done anything in years, were getting old and/or had mediocre careers at best, only to have them get traded to the Dodgers or end up coaching for the Dodgers later (Nick Green was one example I remember).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenni01.shtml

Those 5 games with the Dodgers in 2010 forced me to go out and get his signature after I had traded one I had, for next to nothing. The point here for me is that I'll want a signature from any player affiliated with the Dodgers, so those scrubs become valuable to me later and I have to go out and buy one to replace what I practically gave away before.

Also with Pitchers 10 years down the road someone could throw a no hitter and for a few days/week there cards will take off...

jmc280zx said:

Also Mark McGuire??? (I know steroids) but for years his rookie could be had for less then $4 then they skyrocketed to $100...

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What kind of example is this? (And his name is spelled McGwire).
McGwire was a 23-year-old who demolished the record for home runs as a rookie and was instantly hot.
This thread is about older underperforming prospects and MLB players in their late 20s who have 8-year-old rookie cards.

Austin said:

What kind of example is this? (And his name is spelled McGwire).
McGwire was a 23-year-old who demolished the record for home runs as a rookie and was instantly hot.
This thread is about older underperforming prospects and MLB players in their late 20s who have 8-year-old rookie cards.

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Its called math... 8 years after his rookie card came out what was it worth??? $4... Just a few years later it was going for $100+ It is an EXAMPLE of a rookie/prospect card that was worth basically nothing then after a couple years of homeruns was selling for 25 times what it used to... what dont you understand about that??? You never know what might happen with any player whether they were sh!t to begin with or a star that dropped out of hobby love... Is that to hard for you to comprehend???

I remember his 85 Topps reached upwards of $300 on ebay back in 98. The shop I worked at priced them at $250 and they would fly out the display case whenever we got them in.

jmc280zx said:

Its called math... 8 years after his rookie card came out what was it worth??? $4... Just a few years later it was going for $100+ It is an EXAMPLE of a rookie/prospect card that was worth basically nothing then after a couple years of homeruns was selling for 25 times what it used to... what dont you understand about that??? You never know what might happen with any player whether they were sh!t to begin with or a star that dropped out of hobby love... Is that to hard for you to comprehend???

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LOL. So angry.

Comparing the fall, then rise, of a superstar's card values to the potential of cards of 28-year-old scrubs and career minor leaguers, like Mat Gamel, who the OP gave as an example, is silly.

I understand you're giving an example of a once-expensive player's rookie being cheap, then skyrocketing, but McGwire already had an enormous built-in fan base when his cards dropped in price because of injuries. He then became the Incredible Hulk.
He wasn't some prospect or fringe player like the OP is talking about.

Actually, you are wrong and it is okay to admit it. Really, it is.

His example is SPOT on because McGwire's rookie was in 1985 Topps, as a member of Team USA. It was worthless at first... until he lit it up in the late 80's in the majors, with Canseco. It then skyrocketed in value... it was never expensive before that. So, in that example, he's got about 4 years distance from release of the rookie to a higher price, which translates to about 2009 in terms of the topic at hand.

Also, as to the topic at hand, I think a 4 year time line might be about right for holding out for hope on prospects and probably weeds the majority of players out. But, there is always the chance one or two players do something at a date later than that. Jermaine Dye from 1994 Bowman's Best, Shane Spencer from 1996 Bowman, and Chris Shelton from 2003 Bowman Chrome are three examples of this possibility and players who were worthless up until their big breakout.

There are probably others I'm not remembering. I think Jay Bruce took a few years to really spike as well, but I don't recall for sure.

Austin said:

LOL. So angry.

Comparing the fall, then rise, of a superstar's card values to the potential of cards of 28-year-old scrubs and career minor leaguers, like Mat Gamel, who the OP gave as an example, is silly.

I understand you're giving an example of a once-expensive player's rookie being cheap, then skyrocketing, but McGwire already had an enormous built-in fan base when his cards dropped in price because of injuries. He then became the Incredible Hulk.
He wasn't some prospect or fringe player like the OP is talking about.

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For the sake of accuracy McGwire's card began to rise in value before the all-star break in '87, less than 2 years after release. It remained relatively "hot" until the .201 batting average years ('92-93??) when I saw them drop as low as $5 at shows up here. Climbed steadily back to $30ish from '94-'96 and then exploded.

I thought the McGwire example was really good myself.

I mean I probably gave away Crush Davis Chrome lots because I had given up on him.

jbhofmann said:

I thought the McGwire example was really good myself.

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Yes, it was a good example of a card that sank in value and then skyrocked later.

But remember the OP said don't give him unique outlying examples like Josh Hamilton, (or a juiced McGwire) because that's too rare to actually happen.

My point was, McGwire was a star to begin with and already had a huge built-in fanbase.
The meteoric rise of McGwires cards had extreme factors that don't apply to the 28-year-old prospects and fringe players that the topic was about.

But we can agree to disagree. (insert group hug smiley I can't do on my phone.)

If the player bashes or becomes popular on a big market team, his card can go way up, even at older age.

I sold more soriano cards in a couple months last year than I had for nearly ten years prior.

Granted he was always good but same situation would apply if chaz roe I became a Yankee and pitched well.

His 3.6 million autos would blow up if that happened.

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I'm still holding Brien Taylor, Steve Olin, Todd Van Poppel, Cliff Floyd, Doug Million, Mark Kotsay, Nate Bump, Kevin Orie, Fernando Seguignol & Todd Dunwoody in hopes they explode one day.

Anytime Kelton & Ambres are in a thread, we all win (former Cubs prospect, Kelton, and Marlins OF prospect in Ambres). Oh when I loved baseball 'prospecting' and was shunned by the BMB Baseball side