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Thread: Toughest Odds To Pull

  1. #16
    Senior Member DeliciousBacon's Avatar
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    The odds of pulling any one specific 2014 Topps Platinum 1/1 are 1:8,415,000. That's a 330 card set at 1:25500; pulling any one specific card, be it Puig or Coco Crisp, the odds are 1 in over 8 million.

    Ignoring the fact that more than one of those A-Rods exist, the odds seem so high because it is basically a one card set (they only did the Super for the 1994 reprint). Say Topps did a 1/1 Super for each of the four reprint years; your odds of pulling a Super auto go from 1:614088 to 1:153522 or so. Pulling the exact 1994 would still be 1:614088, which is still not as high as pulling that one exact Platinum.
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  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAVEPETERS239 View Post
    Does anyone else know of any cards with such high odds like this?
    No, I have never seen odds close to those, and I would wager that those are the longest stated odds in hobby history.


    Quote Originally Posted by DAVEPETERS239 View Post
    I like math so the odds to pull a card always influences what I am willing to pay for something.
    I think you are alone on this. Stated odds mean nothing to me in terms of value, and I would also wager that most (all?) here agree with me.


    Interesting topic, though.
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  3. #18
    Senior Member MansGame's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dmscards View Post
    +1


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  4. #19
    Senior Member Juan Gris's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mighty Bombjack View Post
    I think you are alone on this. Stated odds mean nothing to me in terms of value, and I would also wager that most (all?) here agree with me.
    Agreed. A number of factors go into what I'm willing to pay for a card and the stated odds have never been one of those factors. Why? When I look at a card I check out the front, the back and make a personal decision based on my PC goals. Something I'm not going to do is track down a list of odds for the set (especially if it is a 1/1). If it was the only card made in the set, I could care less what the odds were before it was pulled. The odds of the card being live and for sale are 1:1.
    Always Looking For Adam Dunn Autograph Cards, 1/1's And Game Used Bats!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Juan Gris View Post
    Agreed. A number of factors go into what I'm willing to pay for a card and the stated odds have never been one of those factors. Why? When I look at a card I check out the front, the back and make a personal decision based on my PC goals. Something I'm not going to do is track down a list of odds for the set (especially if it is a 1/1). If it was the only card made in the set, I could care less what the odds were before it was pulled. The odds of the card being live and for sale are 1:1.
    Exactly! And further, as alluded to by deliciousbacon above, the odds stated for a particular card are largely influenced by the overall checklist, print run, and the number of other cards in that particular subset/insert. Why those factors would influence what anyone would pay for that card, I can't understand.
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  6. #21
    Senior Member 200lbhockeyplayer's Avatar
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    Base Topps sets almost always have long odds to pull specific 1/1 chase cards...ringing in at 1:600k+.

    Perhaps there is an ulterior motive with this thread OP?
    Hello again.

  7. #22
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    im the biggest clown on these boards and i think you're an idiot

  8. #23
    Senior Member Austin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 200lbhockeyplayer View Post
    Base Topps sets almost always have long odds to pull specific 1/1 chase cards...ringing in at 1:600k+.

    Perhaps there is an ulterior motive with this thread OP?
    See my post above.
    Set builder, autograph hunter and fan of the Texas Rangers & '50s-'60s Yankees

  9. #24
    Senior Member Super Mario's Avatar
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    Cubs World Series champion cards.





    Resident Yadier Molina, and Pro Wrestling super fan.

  10. #25
    Senior Member cubfanbudman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super Mario View Post
    Cubs World Series champion cards.
    Haha step back in line...you're getting out of it


    One day Sam, one day

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  11. #26
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    Oh jesus here we go about this stupid backdoored card again. Pimping ain't easy and odds are irrlevant on a backdoored card that there are at least several of, and to boot it was not signed due to being backdoored.

    You can always tell when this $15 card is listed somewhere cause suddenly a story will always surface telling us how rare it is. Usually by the same parties.
    Last edited by nyc3; 04-14-2014 at 07:48 AM.

  12. #27
    Member IUjapander's Avatar
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    My offer wasn't accepted

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  13. #28
    Senior Member 200lbhockeyplayer's Avatar
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    2007 Topps Series 1 - ARod Road to 500 Continuity Autograph 1:1,111,000 (Those cards WITH A-Rod autographs go unsold in the $250 range.)

    To the OP...you're proud of your card and you really believe you have something rare and valuable. And that's great. However, what you have is something rare, but sadly, not overly valuable. As for your listed odds on that Alex Rodriguez card...we already know of more than one on the market and those odds listed were for a 1/1. It's not a 1/1. What does that mean? It's not nearly as rare as 1:600K+ odds.

    Sorry.
    Hello again.

  14. #29
    Senior Member MansGame's Avatar
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    This thread is HOS ready. I don't know the OP from a hole in the head but I have seen my fair share of discussion and threads about "the card" being talked about. I don't get it. As [MENTION=2209]200lbhockeyplayer[/MENTION] said, he clearly thinks he has something of great value but it's not but that's OK. IMO perception is reality and that's OK but pimping it on a board like this is only going to go bad IMO.
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  15. #30
    Senior Member Pine Tar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super Mario View Post
    Cubs World Series champion cards.
    Highooooo.
    -Richard-

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