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Thread: The Definitive, Scientific (Kinda, Sorta) Top 50 BOWMAN CHROME ALL-TIME LIST

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    Senior Member jbhofmann's Avatar
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    The Definitive, Scientific (Kinda, Sorta) Top 50 BOWMAN CHROME ALL-TIME LIST

    [MENTION=1741]darocker80[/MENTION] proposed the question last week that asked us to rank the top 50 Bowman Chrome Autographed RC's (1st Autograph) of all-time, so naturally I decided to create a list based on merit.

    After taking his list I ventured over to baseball-reference.com and started researching each player's average WAR per season (Career WAR / Number of Years). It's not a perfect, but I think when you look at the list you will find that it is a pretty good measure for who really has been a great player and who has maybe been a little overrated during their career.

    One factor that you have to take into consideration is the number of years each player has played. Obviously Abreu is working on a smaller sample size while Pujols has accumulated some years. I think it all evens itself out and is a pretty good representation of who really owns the greatest Chrome Autos of all time...

    50. Ben Revere 0.88 WAR/Season
    49. Matt Moore 1.12
    48. Allen Craig 1.26
    47. Aroldis Chapman 1.54
    46. Billy Butler 1.60
    45. Matt Garza 1.72
    44. Sonny Gray 1.80
    43. Starlin Castro 1.92
    42. Anthony Rizzo 2.10
    41. Stephen Strasburg 2.16

    Chapman and Strasburg jump out at me as the biggest names that I wouldn't have expected this low. Chapman is essentially striking out EVERYONE he faces this year and still can't muster a high WAR. More and more the closer role seems to be a Larussa manufactured position that really can be manned by anyone. Chapman needs to be traded to a great team, or move to the starting rotation. He's being wasted where he is currently.

    40. Matt Kemp 2.27
    39. Mat Latos 2.33
    38. Prince Fielder 2.33
    37. Gio Gonzalez 2.34
    36. Madison Bumgarner 2.41
    35. Bryce Harper 2.43
    34. Jose Bautista 2.47
    33. Brian McCann 2.48
    32. Freddie Freeman 2.50
    31. Justin Upton 2.59

    Kemp really stood out to me here. I thought his WAR would be much higher but he really hasn't put many years together. Also Bautista and Fielder are consistently in the HR leader category but have failed to produce in other areas that equate to a higher WAR.


    30. Jordan Zimmerman 2.63
    29. Tim Lincecum 2.83
    28. Jacoby Ellsbury 3.08
    27. David Price 3.17
    26. Kevin Youkilis 3.27
    25. Hunter Pence 3.30
    24. Manny Machado 3.43
    23. Ryan Zimmerman 3.45
    22. Alex Gordon 3.48
    21. Jon Lester 3.51

    Couple things that jump out at me here: Lincecum was flat out DOMINANT for a couple of years and has now produced 3 straight years of NEGATIVE WAR. He would be way up this list if he hadn't have fallen off the last three years. Youkilis, Pence and Gordon are much higher than I expected. Youk and Pence are grinders that are hustle type of guys while some tout Gordon as one of the best defensive Left Fielders ever. Side note: Youkilis is the only retired player on this list.

    20. Paul Goldschmidt 3.55
    19. Hanley Ramirez 3.56
    18. Giancarlo Stanton 3.66
    17. Buster Posey 3.73
    16. Jose Fernandez 3.75
    15. Josh Donaldson 4.00
    14. Jered Weaver 4.02
    13. Justin Verlander 4.10
    12. Joe Mauer 4.17
    11. Yasiel Puig 4.30

    Josh Donaldson is a WAR machine. I had no clue that he would have been this high on the list. Also Jered Weaver has put together a very nice career and has shown some sustained dominance that I didn't realize.

    10. Yu Darvish 4.37
    09. Chris Sale 4.42
    08. David Wright 4.50
    07. Ryan Braun 4.50
    06. Felix Hernandez 4.55
    05. Jose Abreu 4.80
    04. Jason Heyward 4.88
    03. Clayton Kershaw 5.66
    02. Mike Trout 6.80
    01. Albert Pujols 6.92

    When all is said and done, the original is still on top. The man who started the craze is still the king of this chrome castle. It's astonishing that Pujols has averaged essentially an MVP season EVERY YEAR since 2001!

    The second thing I took away from the top of the list was Jason Heyward's astronomical numbers. He's quietly racked up some major WAR points while falling from the hobby heavens. Maybe he's a decent buy based on his sustained performance.


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    Member CubsfanP's Avatar
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    Nice work. Obviously like you said, people like Puig or Abreu have a small sample size. I enjoyed going through this.

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    Senior Member jbhofmann's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsfanP View Post
    Nice work. Obviously like you said, people like Puig or Abreu have a small sample size. I enjoyed going through this.
    Thanks.

    Yes, I toyed with creating a service time minimum but it was going to be too much work for what I wanted to put into this. Obviously some players accrue more missed time than others and I really didn't mess with that at all. I strictly took the career WAR number and divided it by the number of seasons (even if it wasn't a full season) they have been playing.

    It'd be neat to match current price points and look at who really has value compared to perceived value.

    Hell that sounds like something Beckett could do and stay relevant!


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    Senior Member clarkzac's Avatar
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    I know it would probably be too much work, and I wouldn't want to do it, but would doing WAR/162 games played be a better measurement? I'm just thinking out loud due to players missing time due to injuries and whatnot.

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    Senior Member RStadlerASU22's Avatar
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    Good work , def some surprises. But yes , Albert Pujols for 10 straight years was the damn man

    Ryan
    ALWAYS LOOKING FOR ODDBALL, REGIONAL, TEAM ISSUED, VARIATIONS, AND TOUGH CARDS OF WILL CLARK AND MIKE BROWN



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    Senior Member jbhofmann's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clarkzac View Post
    I know it would probably be too much work, and I wouldn't want to do it, but would doing WAR/162 games played be a better measurement? I'm just thinking out loud due to players missing time due to injuries and whatnot.
    Absolutely.


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    Senior Member clarkzac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbhofmann View Post
    Absolutely.
    Okay, just wanted to make sure I was on the right path there. I'm exhausted and feel like I'm coming down with a cold which tends to make me over think sometimes

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    Senior Member jbhofmann's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clarkzac View Post
    Okay, just wanted to make sure I was on the right path there. I'm exhausted and feel like I'm coming down with a cold which tends to make me over think sometimes
    Although I'm not smart enough to realize if that would completely mess up pitchers in the equation.


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    Senior Member clarkzac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbhofmann View Post
    Although I'm not smart enough to realize if that would completely mess up pitchers in the equation.
    You have a very valid point there. I wasn't even taking them into consideration. The only thing that I could think of would be per innings pitched, but that would only be a true testament to other pitchers and then they wouldn't rank well against hitters.

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    Senior Member darocker80's Avatar
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    Thanks for making the list! Great post to read. All hail Bowman Chrome!

    The biggest thing that stood out to me was how high Bryce Harper is on the list. His age is impressive. His stats are not THAT impressive

    And because it is officially thursday here is my #tbt (throwback thursday)



    I miss them so much, but thank god I sold them at their peak (while I left for college). Hopefully I'll land this rainbow in the future now that I am back in the hobby.
    *I did pick up the pablo sandoval bowman chrome prospect rainbow to orange though
    Last edited by darocker80; 09-11-2014 at 05:59 AM.
    I want all your Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner Bowman Chrome Auto RCs


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    Senior Member WaxPax's Avatar
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    Interesting that Evan Longoria is NOT on this list....

    Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Freedom Card Board mobile app

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    Senior Member jbhofmann's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WaxPax View Post
    Interesting that Evan Longoria is NOT on this list....

    Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Freedom Card Board mobile app
    He would be...just a terrible oversight on my part.


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    Senior Member carlitoson's Avatar
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    Interesting list; thanks for researching it.

    Besides Longo, a few more that you're missing are Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson, and Carlos Santana.
    Even Khris Davis, Drew Stubbs and Dustin Ackley would make your top 50 ahead of guys like Revere.

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    Senior Member jbhofmann's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carlitoson View Post
    Interesting list; thanks for researching it.

    Besides Longo, a few more that you're missing are Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson, and Carlos Santana.
    Even Khris Davis, Drew Stubbs and Dustin Ackley would make your top 50 ahead of guys like Revere.
    I really didn't do a ton of work. Basically took darocker80's list and did the 3rd grade math.

    Probably all guys that needed to be looked at.


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    Member CubsfanP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbhofmann View Post
    I really didn't do a ton of work. Basically took darocker80's list and did the 3rd grade math.

    Probably all guys that needed to be looked at.
    hh ok. This is very limited then. I would like to see where the following guys rank:

    Jeff Samardzija, Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes, Stephen Drew, Mike Bourn, Kendry Morales, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Will Venable, Gordon Beckham, Tommy Hanson, Chris Johnson, Lance Lynn, Drew Storen, Mike Leake, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey, Jean Segura, Brett Lawrie

    I'm sure most would not make the cut, but there may be some suprises.

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