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Thread: Oh, so THAT'S why my '91 cards are worthless

  1. #16
    Senior Member D-Lite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IUjapander View Post
    I bet if you added up every card that topps makes in 2014 across all brands it is greater than 5 million.

    Something to think about.
    And those are just the Jake Marisnick autos.

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    Junior Member bobthewondercat77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dilferules View Post
    I severely doubt it. I ran calculations on one decently popular player, Yoenis Cespedes, for 2014. He was in a lot of base and inserts sets, plus a lot of GU and autographed issues. Most of these are gross overestimations so the total is likely far lower:

    For Topps only, no Panini...

    His total number of serial numbered cards produced in 2014 was 21,278 (this is counting multi-player cards)
    If we say the most highly distributed sets are 200,000 base print run, he was in 4 that I consider very high print run: Bowman, Topps, 2 cards in Topps Update: 800,000
    Next lower level of print run, estimated 100,000...could be way off but I bet it's far over for some: Bowman Chrome, Stadium Club, Ginter, Archives, Chrome, GQ, Heritage, Opening Day; 8 sets = 800,000
    More limited sets at 50,000 print run...this has to be way over for some of these but I'm erring on the side of overproduction: Chipz, Mini, Museum, Stickers, Tribute, Triple Threads; 6 sets = 300,000
    A couple of low-run specialty sets at 10,000, again way over in one case but just an estimate: A's Topps, Turkey Red; 2 sets = 20,000
    Then I did complete ballpark estimates for all unnumbered inserts/parallels based on how difficult they are to find relative to base cards and/or numbered inserts:
    35,000: 8 = 280,000
    10,000: 10 = 100,000
    5,000: 18 = 90,000
    1,500: 45 = 67,500
    100: 17 = 1,700

    Grand total "highball" estimate for Topps Yoenis Cespedes cards in 2014: 2,480,478. Since I overestimated on a lot I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were below 2,000,000. And keep in mind that we're judging all 2014 Topps sets against just base 1991 Topps, not counting all of the other 1991 Topps cards like Stadium Club, various food issues, specialty sets, etc. Plus 1991 Topps was 5 million cards for 700+ players...Frank Thomas had 5 million and Lance Blankenship had 5 million. Whereas nowadays perhaps stars will have 2 or 3 million across all Topps brands, but the Lance Blankenships will have fewer than 500,000.
    Interesting. I do think this is the high end of what is possible, I would be surprised if there were 1M 2014 Cespedes in total honestly. I would guess that flagship Topps is the the only product that approaches 100,000 copies per card.

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    Senior Member DeliciousBacon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BBCgalaxee View Post
    I've always thought that 1991 was the year when the most cards were made across the four sports. In other words, the last year when nearly everything was mass produced.

    Reading a '91 "Baseball Cards" magazine, I came upon these numbers for baseball:

    Topps made 5 million of each card
    Score made nearly as many
    Upper Deck, Fleer and Donruss made around 3 million of each card.
    What's amazing about the 5 mil number for Topps is that cards like the Mark Whiten, Doug Drabek, and Chris Hoiles variations exist, and sell for as much as they do. If Topps caught those cards after just one-tenth of 1% of the cards had been printed, there'd still be 5,000 of each. One-hundreth of 1%, still 500 of each. I wonder how many of those really do exist.
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    Senior Member TNP777's Avatar
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    Good Lord. If you put Score's print run at 4M per and add Topps' 5M per and UD, Donruss and Fleer's 3M per - you end up with 14,430,000,000. Over 14 billions base cards, and that's before you add on the other sets issued in '91 (list according to The Trading Card Database)



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    Quote Originally Posted by D-Lite View Post
    And those are just the Jake Marisnick autos.
    I was going to say Chaz Roe but yeah, that works too.
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    Senior Member predatorkj's Avatar
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    To me, it's surprising how there could be only 200,000 or 100,000 of some of these base cards considering packs are sold at every walmart and target. Well...at least base topps anyways.
    Collecting Jeff Bagwell all day every day!
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    Senior Member BBCgalaxee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrniceguy1126 View Post
    I was going to say Chaz Roe but yeah, that works too.
    Please for future reference, do not make jokes about Chaz without my consent

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    Last edited by BBCgalaxee; 11-01-2014 at 06:06 PM.

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    Senior Member finestkind's Avatar
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    That's some big ugly numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by predatorkj View Post
    To me, it's surprising how there could be only 200,000 or 100,000 of some of these base cards considering packs are sold at every walmart and target. Well...at least base topps anyways.
    Yeah, me too. I'd bet it's closer to double that, especially when you add in retail products, which have alot more "base" added in and less inserts.

    And [MENTION=6581]BBCgalaxee[/MENTION], did the article in the 1991 mag say if those numbers were quoted from someone specific or just based on estimates?
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    Senior Member BBCgalaxee's Avatar
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    Here's a typical ad from the 1991 magazine. Keep in mind you HAVE TO order in lots of 50, 100 or greater!

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Here's the article which mentions the production runs Click image for larger version. 

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    That many Andre Dawson cards are out there and I only have about 1,000 of each? Where are they all at?
    Want to buy anything Andre Dawson - Twitter @The8Hawk8
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  12. #27
    Senior Member predatorkj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk8 View Post
    That many Andre Dawson cards are out there and I only have about 1,000 of each? Where are they all at?
    In people's storage units waiting to be revealed on the next episode of Storage Wars! YYYEEEEEP!
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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by BBCgalaxee View Post
    Here's a typical ad from the 1991 magazine. Keep in mind you HAVE TO order in lots of 50, 100 or greater!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	1414884519485.jpg 
Views:	92 
Size:	79.9 KB 
ID:	42422

    Here's the article which mentions the production runs Click image for larger version. 

Name:	1414884619883.jpg 
Views:	87 
Size:	71.9 KB 
ID:	42423
    Whoa! Look at the prices for Travis Fryman & Todd Van Poppel. I remember when stacks of those were going to buy me a new car in the future. And I'd be able to retire if I had enough Chris Sabo rookies! Ahhh memories.
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  14. #29
    Senior Member Brewer Andy's Avatar
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    Who was "G Scott"? Don't remember that one. But yeah, Steve Decker was hot for a month lol

    Edit-I assume Gary Scott. Still don't remember him being THAT hot lol
    Last edited by Brewer Andy; 11-02-2014 at 12:33 PM.
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    Senior Member DaClyde's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brewer Andy View Post
    Who was "G Scott"? Don't remember that one. But yeah, Steve Decker was hot for a month lol

    Edit-I assume Gary Scott. Still don't remember him being THAT hot lol
    There was always a huge difference between who was actually hot and what the hobby magazines said. All throughout 1986-1987, those publications couldn't seem to stop falling all over themselves about how great Sportflics were. But the actual hobby never seemed to care for Sportflics.

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