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View Poll Results: if nick got 3000 and 600 -- hof?

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Thread: If Nick Markakis (poll)

  1. #16
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bstanwood View Post
    If someone...anyone stays productive long enough for a major league team to keep giving him money and that player accumulates 3,000 hits and 600 doubles that's hall of fame worthy. I don't care how the player is perceived, the goal in the game is to produce for your team so the team wins games.
    It just so happens that most hall of famers have some kind of electric quality that they are remembered for. Under no circumstances do I think Markakis gets to 3,000, but if he did I'd vote for him. How could someone achieve more than 99.9% of players ever in such a key statistic and not go in???
    Exactly. There have been well over 18,000 players to have played in the majors but yet only 31 have ever reached the milestone of 3k hits. There is a reason for that. I's a nearly impossible goal to achieve and you have to be incredibly talented to do so. It's not a necessity to have a bunch of All-Star appearances & MVP awards in order to be considered a HOF player.

    Markakis has averaged 166 hits per season which means he'd need 6 more seasons (assuming he'll get 37 more hits this season) at the same level of production in order to reach 3k hits. This may sound easy enough but it's not at all. Typically at age 34 players begin to experience a regression in production that continues to decline every following season and that is the exact age he'll be in 2018. This means it's extremely improbable he'll average anything close to 160 hits the next 6 years so you'd have to assume he needs at least a couple more seasons. Then you have to factor in his health. In his late 30's does anyone honestly think he can play 150+ games for the next 6+ years? To this point in his career he's done an amazing job of remaining healthy year after year but as you get older, the body breaks down more often. Finally, he'd have to land on a team that would be willing to play him everyday despite the fact he is well past his prime years and better options are likely available. Considering all this I feel the odds are heavily stacked against him. I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

    This reminds me of the "will Adam Dunn make it to the HOF?" thread on BlowoutCards back in 2013/2014 and a bunch of people were saying he had a good shot at 600+ home runs but certainly no less than 500. I mean, if you were looking at his current HR pace when he was 33 one would think 500 HR was certainly plausible. But sure enough, he retired the following year. Point is, it's not easy to remain productive once you reach your mid 30's. Unless of course, you turn to PEDS like Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, etc.
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  2. #17
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    They need to put an addition on the HOF for really good, this could be for guys like Markakis (if he gets 3k) Niekro, Sutton, and other lower HOF members. Save the real HOF for the Giants of the game Ike Cobb, Ruth, Young, etc.


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  3. #18
    Senior Member Austin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by e.v. View Post
    All he needs to do is to keep his production at current levels for the next six years and he gets 3000. Or he could keep it at current levels for the next four years (age 37) and then play sub-par until he is 41.
    The problem is not if Markakis can keep up his level of play for another six years, it's if a team would pay his salary for an average player in his late '30s when they can bring up a 22-year-old rookie for 1/20th the price.

    Salaries are so high these days that teams are no longer willing to pay $10 million for a player in his mid-30s, unless he's a franchise legend and still a great player, like Chipper Jones or Derek Jeter.

    Markakis will be out of the league by 37 or 38.
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    Bump Just got his first all-star game. He doesn't seem to be slowing down any! I think he will make it eventually.
    Last edited by e.v.; 07-10-2018 at 01:36 PM.

  5. #20
    Senior Member notjomommasclint's Avatar
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    hes not a hall of famer.. if he got 3,000 hits and one of them was a bad ruling on an error.. mlb would go back overturn that ruling or simply burn down the Hall of Fame to keep it from being further soiled by less than great players..

    hell the other side of that.. if alan trammell can get in.. why not? with him getting in i should get some votes..
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  6. #21
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notjomommasclint View Post
    hes not a hall of famer.. if he got 3,000 hits and one of them was a bad ruling on an error.. mlb would go back overturn that ruling or simply burn down the Hall of Fame to keep it from being further soiled by less than great players..

    hell the other side of that.. if alan trammell can get in.. why not? with him getting in i should get some votes..
    He's not going to reach 3,000 hits...I just can't see it happening. Sure he's putting up a career year, his best one since his 2008 season but I just don't see him continuing to put up this level of production for much longer. It's odd enough that he's revitalized himself during his age 34 season but it's not completely unheard of. You'll hear about it happening to a player or two every year. Last year it was Ryan Zimmerman & such as we are seeing with Zimmerman this year, it's generally followed by a swift regression to the norm. Then you've got the players like Nelson Cruz who were never All-Stars, or maybe once an All-Star, until they reached their 30's and are now perennial All-Star/MVP finalists. Of course, these type of players almost always have a past history with steroids (like Cruz).

    It's different with pitchers though and I'm never really surprised to see it happen. In fact, analytic websites like fangraphs say that generally (but not always) pitchers don't reach their prime form until their early 30's season.
    Look, I'm gonna be honest with you. I really need a job. And I will take any position, as long as it doesn't involve having sex with old ladies for money or bear traps. Those are my two bugaboos. While mulling over my resume feel free to check out my baseball card collection, it's small and simple, kinda like me - >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff


  7. #22
    Senior Member JVHaste's Avatar
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    but what if Jake Peavy got to 3000 hits?

  8. #23
    Senior Member Musial Collector's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rabs View Post
    How many players that have 3000 hits are not in the HOF?
    Rose and Palmeiro off the top of my head.
    Speaking of I just watched Rafael Palmeiro play last night. Hes with the Cleburne Railroaders of the Independent League. For 53, guy can still hit the ball well.
    Last edited by Musial Collector; 07-10-2018 at 05:38 PM.
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  9. #24
    Senior Member Musial Collector's Avatar
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    Heres a link to Raffy at BP yesterday

    https://twitter.com/Fox9Sports/statu...53769729634305
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  10. #25
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    Some guys get there with a relatively short peak that is ridiculously dominant...Koufax, others get there by grinding it our over several decades...Sutton. 3000 is so remarkable that it deserves to be enshrined, not matter how amazing or underwhelming someone strikes you. How many Major league careers don't even last 3000 ABs or games???
    I doubt he will get there but hats off to him anyway.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by death2redemptions View Post
    He's not going to reach 3,000 hits...I just can't see it happening. Sure he's putting up a career year, his best one since his 2008 season but I just don't see him continuing to put up this level of production for much longer. It's odd enough that he's revitalized himself during his age 34 season but it's not completely unheard of. You'll hear about it happening to a player or two every year. Last year it was Ryan Zimmerman & such as we are seeing with Zimmerman this year, it's generally followed by a swift regression to the norm. Then you've got the players like Nelson Cruz who were never All-Stars, or maybe once an All-Star, until they reached their 30's and are now perennial All-Star/MVP finalists. Of course, these type of players almost always have a past history with steroids (like Cruz).

    It's different with pitchers though and I'm never really surprised to see it happen. In fact, analytic websites like fangraphs say that generally (but not always) pitchers don't reach their prime form until their early 30's season.
    I think he probably will get to 3,000 hits. He will likely get to 600 doubles. He'll get to 1,000 RBIs and 1,000 walks easily. He's already over 1,000 runs. What, I think, will determine his Hall of Fame case is how quickly he gets there. Finishing up this season just like he has been playing (another 70 hits or so) then dropping back down to his late career ~160 hit per season pace puts him pretty close to 2,900 hits (2,880ish) after his age 38 season. It wouldn't take much of a sustained spike to go over 3K in that time frame. It isn't likely but he has changed up his swing and he has the kind of skillset that tends to age very, very well so maybe he gets there by the end of the 2022 season. If he hangs on till he's 40 or 41 chasing those last 120 hits then I think his candidacy goes out the window since it is already fringe.

    I'm really rooting for him to get to all those milestones. It makes for one hell of an interesting Hall of Fame case. He's on pace for a shade over 4 fWAR this year. If he follows a sort of normal aging curve and accrues 1.5 (rest of 2018), 3.5 (down from 4), 3, 2.5, 2 by the end of the 2022 season you've got a guy who is at ~41.5 fWAR. By fWAR he'd be the worst Hall of Fame pick since Lou Brock at 43.8 fWAR. However, when you really look at the underlying numbers, he actually measures up really well with a lot of guys who are already in the Hall or are locks to be elected. The difference? Team. He played on some really, really ****ty teams for most of his career. Can you imagine what his numbers would look like if he'd been on the Yankees for most of his career or hitting in front of David Ortiz in Boston? How many times has he hit a double in his career and gotten stuck because the hitters behind him didn't know which end of the bat to hold? How many more RBIs would he have with Derek Jeter or Dustin Pedroia hitting in front of him instead of Alberto Callaspo and Nate McLouth? He probably won't get in but he's an interesting player to discuss and I hope he gets to the milestones.
    Last edited by WizardofOz1982; 07-10-2018 at 06:17 PM.
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  12. #27
    Member Rabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Musial Collector View Post
    Rose and Palmeiro off the top of my head.
    Speaking of I just watched Rafael Palmeiro play last night. Hes with the Cleburne Railroaders of the Independent League. For 53, guy can still hit the ball well.
    Both of those guys have specific reasons for not being in the Hall.
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  13. #28
    Senior Member Musial Collector's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rabs View Post
    Both of those guys have specific reasons for not being in the Hall.
    No way The question was who's not in the hall with 3000+ hits, that's what I answered.
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  14. #29
    Senior Member JVHaste's Avatar
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    Rose, Jeter, ARod, Ichiro, Pu-Manchu, Beltre, Raffy. I think thats it... most of those will be in the Hall within a few years.

  15. #30
    Member Rabs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Musial Collector View Post
    No way The question was who's not in the hall with 3000+ hits, that's what I answered.
    Yeah I know, you aren't wrong. I was just saying Rose and Palmeiro would also be HOFers if it wasn't for other reasons.
    Brian Orakpo, Sean Taylor, and Craig Kimbrel super collector! Also collect Ultra Lucky 13 RCs from years 2004-2007, Texas Longhorns, Miami Hurricanes, Virginia Tech Hokies, Virginia Cavaliers, current Washington Redskins, current Atlanta Braves, and Roger Federer.
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