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Thread: YU DARVISH SIGNS WITH THE CUBS (6Y/$126M)

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaypers View Post
    Wow. In it for the long haul, Theo is.
    Darvish probably won't play all 6 years with the Cubs. What longterm contract player (outside of those rare single-team life'rs) have played their long term contract without retiring or being traded before the longer term contract was finished?

    Quote Originally Posted by death2redemptions
    Based on my advanced calculations, that comes to roughly $21 million per year.

    I know, I know I'm probably the most intelligent person on this entire site for solving such an advanced equation but I can't take all the credit. During the solving process I had some help from a special algorithm that allowed me to figure it out a couple hours earlier than expected.
    Has there been reporting that the contract was straight-line? It could be one of those back-loaded contracts so it's less money in the early years and more money in the later years rendering your algorithm useless.

  2. #17
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    6 years is a bit too long - plus it puts them up against the luxury tax limit - the young guys are all going to start making more money in arbitration in the next few years - they will need to win another one soon to take advantage of the players they have locked up

  3. #18
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rsmath View Post
    Has there been reporting that the contract was straight-line? It could be one of those back-loaded contracts so it's less money in the early years and more money in the later years rendering your algorithm useless.
    Yeah, well....my algorithm could kick your algorithms ass

    Look, I'm gonna be honest with you. I really need a job. And I will take any position, as long as it doesn't involve having sex with old ladies for money or bear traps. Those are my two bugaboos. While mulling over my resume feel free to check out my baseball card collection, it's small and simple, kinda like me - >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff


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    Senior Member WCTYSON's Avatar
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    I am looking at his numbers and I am not seeing regression currently, just slightly different results. Is there something in particular that jumps out to people about Darvish? I'm looking at this as a solid signing by the Cubs for how their club is currently structured. They do not have any young arms banging on the door to enter the rotation at the top end. Is Darvish likely to regress toward the later years of this contract? Likely yes, but he is not currently regressing.

    http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p.../2018&s_type=2
    There's a horse loose in the hospital

  5. #20
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WCTYSON View Post
    I am looking at his numbers and I am not seeing regression currently, just slightly different results. Is there something in particular that jumps out to people about Darvish? I'm looking at this as a solid signing by the Cubs for how their club is currently structured. They do not have any young arms banging on the door to enter the rotation at the top end. Is Darvish likely to regress toward the later years of this contract? Likely yes, but he is not currently regressing.

    http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p.../2018&s_type=2
    I haven't noticed any regression from him yet. In each of his full seasons (excludes 2016 which was half a season) he has produced a 3.5+ fWAR, including 2017. There was a slight uptick in his FIP/ERA last year due to an increase in his HR/9 but his strikeout and walk rates remained roughly the same as in seasons past (okay, maybe a strikeout less per 9 but still remained double digits). If someone is basing their theory of regression on his win/loss totals then they'd simply be wrong. Outdated stats as such should be banished, or at the very least ignored.

    I think the price point per year of his contract is pretty spot on. 3.5 fWAR is worth slightly more than the average of $21 million per year & I do believe he'll continue to outperform that value the first few years of the contract...if he stays healthy. There will be regression of course in the final couple years of that contract but my biggest concern would be his health. I'd have the same concern with any other pitcher who has suffered a previous TJ surgery.

    Personally I think it's a good signing for the Cubs, especially if he avoids any further injury complications. When compared to other free agent contracts of top flight (#1/#2) starters it really isn't far off at all. Like any of these 5+ year contracts fans will begin complaining towards the final couple years of the signing or he'll be traded around to various other teams in contention hoping he'll make a comeback.
    Look, I'm gonna be honest with you. I really need a job. And I will take any position, as long as it doesn't involve having sex with old ladies for money or bear traps. Those are my two bugaboos. While mulling over my resume feel free to check out my baseball card collection, it's small and simple, kinda like me - >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff


  6. #21
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    In 5 years what is a #4 or #5 starter going to cost? 20M plus. I think the Cubs got a BIG bargain in getting Darvish.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982 View Post
    His underlying stats have been showing significant regression for a couple years. He's a pumpkin waiting for midnight.
    Think that would be obvious considering his meltdown during the pressures of the playoffs last yr.

  8. #23
    Senior Member Super Mario's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nosterbor View Post
    In 5 years what is a #4 or #5 starter going to cost? 20M plus?

    Not with the way most of these teams have been doing things lately.





    Resident Yadier Molina, and Pro Wrestling super fan.

  9. #24
    Senior Member WCTYSON's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteD View Post
    Think that would be obvious considering his meltdown during the pressures of the playoffs last yr.
    I asked what underlying stats he is referring to but no response yet. Meltdown in the playoffs last year? Does that also include his games against the D-Backs and the Cubs? So two outings against the WS winners shows significant career regression?
    There's a horse loose in the hospital

  10. #25
    Senior Member Pine Tar's Avatar
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    The Contract has a after 3 years opt-out and a no trade clause (just like most have) So after 3 years of maybe middle of the road pitching the Cubs can just say good-bye to him. But who knows Joe now has his guy to work with his pitching staff so maybe this can be a great thing for the Cubs for years to come.

    And hereis a list of players still unsigned
    the many accomplished free agents who remain unsigned, including Eric Hosmer, J. D. Martinez, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland, Carlos Gonzalez and Carlos Gomez. All of those players are represented by the agent Scott Boras.

    ,
    Among the dozens of unsigned free agents are starters Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Jason Vargas and Andrew Cashner;

    relievers Tony Watson, Francisco Liriano and Bud Norris;

    first basemen Lucas Duda, Matt Holliday, Logan Morrison, Mike Napoli and Mark Reynolds; catchers A. J. Ellis, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Stewart;

    second basemen Brandon Phillips, Chase Utley and Neil Walker.


    outfielders Melky Cabrera, Jarrod Dyson, Jon Jay and Cameron Maybin;
    Last edited by Pine Tar; 02-13-2018 at 12:40 PM.
    -Richard-

  11. #26
    Junior Member deaconblues63's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pine Tar View Post
    The Contract has a after 3 years opt-out and a no trade clause (just like most have) So after 3 years of maybe middle of the road pitching the Cubs can just say good-bye to him. But who knows Joe now has his guy to work with his pitching staff so maybe this can be a great thing for the Cubs for years to come.
    Everything I have read states that Darvish has an opt out after year two. Iíve seen nothing that indicates that the Cubs have an opt out at any point.


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