2018 Ohtani Season Projections

death2redemptions · Feb 27, 2018

WCTYSON said:
He is being hyped like any exciting, young player entering a rookie season with the addition of being a two way player. I don't think he is overrated because I don't think he is rated at all, not even a sample size against MLB talent. I'm not seeing anybody here seriously saying he is a great player but I am seeing a lot of people saying he will suck. I for one am excited to see what kind of value a true two way player brings to the game and if that translates to excitement in the hobby I am for that too. Why not? What happened with Tanaka, besides jaded Yankees fans with unrealistic expectations? He has been in MLB for 4 seasons and during that time has arguably been a top 20 pitcher.

I'm excited too and think he'll live up to the pitching expectations however I'm a little skeptical of his offensive game maybe for no other reason than the fact that it's far easier to hit in the Japanese League than in the mlb, as we've seen with players who can no longer kick it here end up hitting 50+ bombs over there. Simply put, offensive stats tend to be inflated in Japan. But I could be completely wrong here, as from the limited coverage I've seen from him, he does appear to have a sweet swing. I guess I'm just curbing my expectations in regards to his offense. At the moment I'm looking at him as a slightly below average to average hitter with the ceiling of a #1/#2 type pitcher assuming he can eventually get used to pitching 180+ IP a year.

WizardofOz1982 · Feb 27, 2018

WCTYSON said:
While I don't have an issue with your pitching projections, though I think he will be closer to 130 innings and a few more starts, do you really think he is a way below average hitter? Are you seeing something with his swing? You have him in negative value territory as a batter. From what I have read about his exit velocity and spin rates, I think you have his slugging way low.

Just a gut feeling. It's hard to tell without seeing him swing the bat every day but I've watched 10-15 hours of footage in the last couple weeks and I think he's going to have a seriously bad time hitting the fastball. In all of that footage I only saw him really square up one pitch that was over ~85 MPH. You can't sit on pitches in the majors and hope someone throws a bad curveball or changeup to crush. I think he ends up pitching full time and I think he's got a #2 ceiling there.

WCTYSON · Feb 27, 2018

0-3 with a strikeout today.

WCTYSON · Feb 27, 2018

WizardofOz1982 said:
Just a gut feeling. It's hard to tell without seeing him swing the bat every day but I've watched 10-15 hours of footage in the last couple weeks and I think he's going to have a seriously bad time hitting the fastball. In all of that footage I only saw him really square up one pitch that was over ~85 MPH. You can't sit on pitches in the majors and hope someone throws a bad curveball or changeup to crush. I think he ends up pitching full time and I think he's got a #2 ceiling there.

Fair enough and that would be about 10-15 hours more of footage than I have seen. He does look to have a long swing and obviously he has long arms. Do you have a comp. for Ohtani as a hitter/pitcher?

WizardofOz1982 · Feb 28, 2018

WCTYSON said:
Fair enough and that would be about 10-15 hours more of footage than I have seen. He does look to have a long swing and obviously he has long arms. Do you have a comp. for Ohtani as a hitter/pitcher?

I haven't seen enough varied footage of him to put a comp on him based on my opinions alone. I tend to be terrible at projecting comps anyway.

Really wide view from the pitching side, I can't find a reason to disagree with the Darvish comps, minus the outlandish idea that Darvish has 9 or 10 unique pitches. I like the pitch mix and quality. I haven't found any really good high speed footage of him to really study the delivery yet but it looks decent in real time. He looks just a half second late to me with his arm action but that's hard to tell at real speed and may be nothing at all. Lots of pitchers are that late or later and never have injury issues.

Really wide view from the hitting side, well he's obviously not Babe Ruth. Outside of that I don't know. I think if he were a hitter 100% of the time then maybe you have a Christian Yelich type hitter in the 115 to 120 wRC+ range. There is certainly nothing wrong with that but from the hype I think that would be a let down.

My main concern is that splitting time between hitting and pitching is going to make an already difficult transition much more difficult as a hitter.

goobmcnasty · Feb 28, 2018

My main concern is how Fantasy Baseball is going to work with him? You've never been able to use a pitcher as a batter before. They're gonna have to change the whole format.

WCTYSON · Feb 28, 2018

WizardofOz1982 said:
I haven't seen enough varied footage of him to put a comp on him based on my opinions alone. I tend to be terrible at projecting comps anyway.

Really wide view from the pitching side, I can't find a reason to disagree with the Darvish comps, minus the outlandish idea that Darvish has 9 or 10 unique pitches. I like the pitch mix and quality. I haven't found any really good high speed footage of him to really study the delivery yet but it looks decent in real time. He looks just a half second late to me with his arm action but that's hard to tell at real speed and may be nothing at all. Lots of pitchers are that late or later and never have injury issues.

Really wide view from the hitting side, well he's obviously not Babe Ruth. Outside of that I don't know. I think if he were a hitter 100% of the time then maybe you have a Christian Yelich type hitter in the 115 to 120 wRC+ range. There is certainly nothing wrong with that but from the hype I think that would be a let down.

My main concern is that splitting time between hitting and pitching is going to make an already difficult transition much more difficult as a hitter.

Have you seen and read this?

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-tracking-data-backs-up-hype/c-262918098

Interesting take with the author making the comps. as Joc Pederson/Luis Severino, based on launch angle, exit velocity and spin rates. Obviously that does not directly relate to results but we are projecting here. Honestly, I am having a difficult time seeing how many AB's he is going to get through a season. Is he going to be available to hit on any off pitching days, just a few days after or before pitching?

WCTYSON · Feb 28, 2018

goobmcnasty said:
My main concern is how Fantasy Baseball is going to work with him? You've never been able to use a pitcher as a batter before. They're gonna have to change the whole format.

Some sites have him as two players, one as a pitcher and as a batter to be drafted separately. I'm on Fantrax, they have him as just one pick, and the manager decides to place him as a hitter or pitcher in the lineup. One thing I am not certain of though on Fantrax, let's say he pitches in an interleague game, does he get credit for both on that daily lineup or do you have to choose between the two?

WizardofOz1982 · Feb 28, 2018

WCTYSON said:
Have you seen and read this?

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-tracking-data-backs-up-hype/c-262918098

Interesting take with the author making the comps. as Joc Pederson/Luis Severino, based on launch angle, exit velocity and spin rates. Obviously that does not directly relate to results but we are projecting here. Honestly, I am having a difficult time seeing how many AB's he is going to get through a season. Is he going to be available to hit on any off pitching days, just a few days after or before pitching?

I hadn't seen that article. I'm not much of a fan of Jim Callis but I don't think those comps are outside the realm of possible for best case scenarios.

If he can translate the raw power to game power then I can see the Pederson comp. You could grab a random 150 AB sample from Pederson and it would very likely look like my projection. My main concern is that Ohtani isn't going to be able to adjust to the higher velocity here, especially in limited at bats, to really get his power into games.

The Severino comp is definitely defensible. Severino, assuming he maintains that kind of output, is in the same tier of pitcher as Darvish.

WCTYSON · Aug 18, 2021

Anybody around here paying attention to Ohtani this season? I haven’t heard anyone even mention his name all season on this board.

nevermore · Aug 18, 2021

8 IP, 8K and 40th HR today.

Incredible season! Fun to watch, hope he can keep going at this level.

WizardofOz1982 · Aug 19, 2021

nevermore said:
8 IP, 8K and 40th HR today.

Incredible season! Fun to watch, hope he can keep going at this level.

Well I was way off two years ago. I really didn't think he'd hit this well. At least he's looking like the pitcher I thought he'd be.

WCTYSON · Aug 19, 2021

WizardofOz1982 said:
Well I was way off two years ago. I really didn't think he'd hit this well. At least he's looking like the pitcher I thought he'd be.

Three years ago but who’s counting, 2020 can be removed from existence. Ohtani is so hard to project. Let’s all consider coming from a different league, the variables of hitting and the variables of pitching. Not sure many would have realistically predicted his 2021 season playing out like this. It has been truly remarkable to watch and I’m still having a hard time understanding what I’m seeing.

FWIW, he has a cumulative WAR >7 with some baseball left to play. I wish we could see this play out in playoff baseball but not going to happen this season. I think it’s safe to say his 2021 season is one of the most memorable in a long time. I can’t wait to find out if he can sustain this success and if so, for how long.

Letch77 · Aug 19, 2021

He's been a fantasy baseball juggernaut for me! Finally starting to pay off after making him a keeper the last few seasons.

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2018 Ohtani Season Projections

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