2018 Bowman Production Period

[Letch77]

A few fun questions to ponder:
How long do you think they will continue printing and packaging 2018 Bowman?

Do you guys think that the Ohtani superfractor has been inserted into a pack/box/case yet?

If so, do you think it's shipped out or still sitting in Topps' order-fulfillment warehouse?

I speculate that they haven't inserted the Ohtani superfractor into a pack yet...they know that when it's found, there will be a big drop in sales of 2018 Bowman.

[cgilmo]

They produce 100% of the print run in one shot.


Sent from my iPad using Freedom Card Board mobile app

[cgilmo]

Additionally Topps holds back no product. It gets sold to distribution even before its made.


Sent from my iPad using Freedom Card Board mobile app

[death2redemptions]

It's print to order. For the vast majority of products (if not all) they only print as much as has been pre-ordered by wholesalers. They no longer do it like they used to in the 80's/90's.

[death2redemptions]

I doubt there will be any drop in sales of 2018 Bowman when the Ohtani superfractor auto is pulled. Nobody realistically expects to pull it but as long as raw base autos are still selling for $1,200-$1,500 & thousands for refractor autos, people will continue ripping wax. Now, a season ending injury to Ohtani will certainly have an effect on prices of wax, as he's the main reason 2018 Bowman is so overpriced. The next best prospect autos can't carry the product at it's current selling price. At least, not until one of them has a breakout season or major league impact.

[David K.]

They probably inserted into the last few cases.......I agree with u that once the big hit has been pulled.......prices will go down. Best regards, David

[Letch77]

I doubt there will be any drop in sales of 2018 Bowman when the Ohtani superfractor auto is pulled. Nobody realistically expects to pull it but as long as raw base autos are still selling for $1,200-$1,500 & thousands for refractor autos, people will continue ripping wax.

My counter-argument is, nobody realistically expects to win the Powerball, but sales increase exponentially the higher the jackpot gets. Then, when someone wins and the pot falls back to a measly $40M, ticket sales drop quite a bit.

[UMich92]

My counter-argument is, nobody realistically expects to win the Powerball, but sales increase exponentially the higher the jackpot gets. Then, when someone wins and the pot falls back to a measly $40M, ticket sales drop quite a bit.

But I can buy a powerball ticket at almost any gas station or convenience store. To buy hobby packs of Bowman, you have to more actively seek out a seller.

[smapdi]

That and lotteries only have 1 jackpot and a few various smaller prizes. I think the Texas lottery has about 9 different ways to win out of 3.8 billion number combinations, with the overall odds of winning anything at 1:57 or so. If only 1 out of 57 Bowman boxes contained anything besides air, the pulling of the Ohtani super would blunt sales quite a bit, I expect. But there are more cards than just the Ohtani super to be found, including many, many cards worth the price of a box, let alone a single pack, so sales stay strong. Similarly, if lotteries paid off at least the ticket price or more for matching, say, one number, sales would continually be high.

[Letch77]

You can't buy Powerball tickets online, but you can buy Bowman boxes online.
It's not a direct 1:1 PB:Bowman comparison because, obviously, PB deals in greater volume. However, it's what people can win/pull that makes them buy either one, and when the big prize is gone, sales decline.
It's simple risk/reward economics: the higher the reward, the more risk people are willing to take. When the largest reward is gone, you lose a lot of buyers as the risk/reward gap closes.