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So, uhh, what happened?

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JoshHamilton

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
12,205
320
I’ve been out of the hobby for a few years and haven’t been paying that close of attention.

What on earth happened to the price of BC autos? Looks like they’ve gone up between 3-5x price wise. Star autos typically topped out between $100 and $200, now they’re $500-$800 all of a sudden? I get the Trout and Judge effect, but jeez. Even current prospect autos of the mid range guys were $30, now they’re $90-$100. Even vets have gotten a sizable boost.

I’m guessing people have started focusing on first prospect autos and RCs since there’s such a glut of other stuff out there?
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
Prospecting is all the rage. I like to get one or two autos of kids in the Red Sox system but lately it's been hard to do that and stay responsible. I stick to my retired guys for the most part, they aren't doing much these days to drive their prices up.
 

gt2590

Super Moderator
Aug 17, 2008
38,657
3,240
Near Philly
I think people have finally figured out the RC / First Bowman/ First auto card mess.

Welcome back man!

And I honestly have no idea if they still make WNBA cards...
 

dano7

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
13,325
3,848
Roanoke, VA
Welcome back! Some big new stars have pushed the prices up the past few years, like Judge, Ohtani..........
Also the Yankees have some young stars and Yankee prospects tend to further drive the market!
 

Topnotchsy

Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
Aug 7, 2008
9,446
168
There has been a glut of BC rookie auto’s of guys who became big stars driving prices up. Now every prospect is viewed as the next Trout, Judge etc.

I can’t imagine it won’t crash at some point. All it takes is looking back at previous years BC to see how few actually pan out.


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smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
All these millennials got rich off crypto and are binging on lambos and high-end modern cards. That's one theory.

But yeah, whatever the reason, the cost of entry on top prospects has gone up a few levels since you left. Base BC autos of top guys used to be $50-75, now they come out of the box 3-4x that much, with further escalators for color. Print runs have been increased significantly over even just 2 years ago, along with checklists, making the standard numbered cards, or just one specific player, harder to find. And Topps is not shy about putting out high-end products that's largely indistinguishable from one another, and often completely forgettable. Panini isn't far off, either, and seems to be doing quite well without a license. Rising manufacturer costs for product, singular RC attractions each of the past couple seasons, and the wide variety of top prospects crushing it leads to a lot of demand even with the greater production.

You can still get tons of great cards cheap, though, if you aren't prospecting or aiming only for superduperfractors.
 

AnthonyCorona

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2014
9,600
68
Modesto, CA
I’d personally stock up on Phil Bickford but someone already cornered the market on him.


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hello will.. do you still have the collection of amazing pieces and ***** droppers?

its what it takes to play in the hobby where every ******* puts their card out there at $999 or best offer.. whomever you pull is clearly worth more than auction value because.. well just ****ing because.
 

Austin

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
5,706
41
Dallas, Texas
These outrageous prices for unproven players' cards are dangerous for the hobby.

There's going to be a major crash in the prospecting world in a couple years when so many speculators leave in disgust from losing several thousands of dollars on their stashes, instead of the usual hundreds that prospectors used to lose.

There will always be prospecting, but the crazy amount of money these rookie cards now sell for can't be sustained, and prices for top prospects will drop to how they were a few years ago.

Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.
 

JVHaste

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2015
4,751
270
Vancouver WA
These outrageous prices for unproven players' cards are dangerous for the hobby.

There's going to be a major crash in the prospecting world in a couple years when so many speculators leave in disgust from losing several thousands of dollars on their stashes, instead of the usual hundreds that prospectors used to lose.

There will always be prospecting, but the crazy amount of money these rookie cards now sell for can't be sustained, and prices for top prospects will drop to how they were a few years ago.

Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.


Another problem is. . . even when very few of these players do become successful most success cases will be of the Hunter Pence, Kyle Seager, Mark Buehrle level. These are players that a GM would love their prospects to turn into, the solid balanced players that are higher end semi stars. (of course everyone wants more but this is an attainable goal) The problem is clearly that the high prices on these cards is you can no longer claim a profit if your guy is a 25-30HR player with gold glove defense. He has to be the guy. This is almost a more sickening way to lose than prospecting a bust.

Plus, even if you have "the guy", what makes you think at this rate anyone will buy your card? They might be all drooling over the new 2026 Bowman class. Also if the HR rates continue to rise then everyone seems a little less special when it becomes the norm. I agree with you that this is all going to bomb out very soon.
 

AnthonyCorona

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2014
9,600
68
Modesto, CA
Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.

You mad bro?

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