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Thread: So, uhh, what happened?

  1. #16
    Senior Member AnthonyCorona's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swish54_99 View Post
    Iíd personally stock up on Phil Bickford but someone already cornered the market on him.


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  2. #17
    Senior Member notjomommasclint's Avatar
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    hello will.. do you still have the collection of amazing pieces and panty droppers?

    its what it takes to play in the hobby where every asshole puts their card out there at $999 or best offer.. whomever you pull is clearly worth more than auction value because.. well just ****ing because.
    I'm not a hater!!! I'm a counter hype specialist

  3. #18
    Senior Member Austin's Avatar
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    These outrageous prices for unproven players' cards are dangerous for the hobby.

    There's going to be a major crash in the prospecting world in a couple years when so many speculators leave in disgust from losing several thousands of dollars on their stashes, instead of the usual hundreds that prospectors used to lose.

    There will always be prospecting, but the crazy amount of money these rookie cards now sell for can't be sustained, and prices for top prospects will drop to how they were a few years ago.

    Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.
    Set builder, autograph hunter and fan of the Texas Rangers & '50s-'60s Yankees

  4. #19
    Senior Member JVHaste's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    These outrageous prices for unproven players' cards are dangerous for the hobby.

    There's going to be a major crash in the prospecting world in a couple years when so many speculators leave in disgust from losing several thousands of dollars on their stashes, instead of the usual hundreds that prospectors used to lose.

    There will always be prospecting, but the crazy amount of money these rookie cards now sell for can't be sustained, and prices for top prospects will drop to how they were a few years ago.

    Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.

    Another problem is. . . even when very few of these players do become successful most success cases will be of the Hunter Pence, Kyle Seager, Mark Buehrle level. These are players that a GM would love their prospects to turn into, the solid balanced players that are higher end semi stars. (of course everyone wants more but this is an attainable goal) The problem is clearly that the high prices on these cards is you can no longer claim a profit if your guy is a 25-30HR player with gold glove defense. He has to be the guy. This is almost a more sickening way to lose than prospecting a bust.

    Plus, even if you have "the guy", what makes you think at this rate anyone will buy your card? They might be all drooling over the new 2026 Bowman class. Also if the HR rates continue to rise then everyone seems a little less special when it becomes the norm. I agree with you that this is all going to bomb out very soon.

  5. #20
    Senior Member AnthonyCorona's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.
    You mad bro?

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  6. #21
    Senior Member tramers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cgilmo View Post
    Meanwhile Freddie freeman stuff is still cheap.


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    still top 10 for my stadium sells

  7. #22
    Administrator cgilmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    These outrageous prices for unproven players' cards are dangerous for the hobby.

    There's going to be a major crash in the prospecting world in a couple years when so many speculators leave in disgust from losing several thousands of dollars on their stashes, instead of the usual hundreds that prospectors used to lose.

    There will always be prospecting, but the crazy amount of money these rookie cards now sell for can't be sustained, and prices for top prospects will drop to how they were a few years ago.

    Most of you prospectors will brush this off, but the majority of you probably won't even be prospecting anymore in a few years because you'll realize you spent thousands of dollars on stashes of worthless rookie cards you can no longer sell.
    Itís about balanced. Stay balanced in what you buy and keep an eye on the market. A decline like this wonít be sudden so you will have time to cut losses.


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  8. #23
    Senior Member JoshHamilton's Avatar
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    There’s gonna be a crash because prices are way too high. Orange stars are now $5000+? My god. That used to be Super territory. It’s nothing against prospecting, but markets that double or triple in a relatively short amount of time often crash, especially with something as volatile as athlete production.

    Congrats to everyone who made money in the last few years. Looks like all first year/RC cards have exploded. Lol I gotta look through my auto box sometime

  9. #24
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    I don't see that it will crash. People have been saying that exact same thing for at least 15 years, and it has been on an upward angle continuously. A long decline, of which there is no evidence as yet, is the most likely scenario. If everyone who has spent an ever-increasing amount of money on these things decides to sell at once and takes any offers, then it would crash. Maybe more realistically we reach a plateau where the top rookies sell for the same amount each year like it used to be. Worst case is that year over year less product sells, less product is opened, and the money cards sell for less. After 5 straight years of that, then I think you can say things have gone in the other direction and then possibly a crash is coming. But if they keep coming out with new guys who cause a frenzy, which happens not every year but pretty regularly, then I don't even see that decline happening.
    Looking for 2011 Topps Marquee Museum autographs, rare Frank Thomases and Grady Sizemores I don't have

  10. #25
    Senior Member joey12508's Avatar
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    I use to buy yankee rookie auto's, not a main part of my collection and most if you had patience you could pick them up at a decent prices. But now at mortgage payment prices, ill stick to the retired guys.

  11. #26
    Senior Member Austin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by smapdi View Post
    But if they keep coming out with new guys who cause a frenzy, which happens not every year but pretty regularly, then I don't even see that decline happening.
    The problem is, there is a decreasing number of people in this hobby. It's getting smaller every year.
    And when thousands of prospectors keep getting burned because they spent $200 to $500 on the latest hot prospect, they'll leave out of frustration and a realization that they wasted a fortune.

    Before, when you lost $50 on a top prospect, not that big of a deal. But when people start losing hundreds of dollars per card, they start jumping ship.

    When I wrote that the prospecting market will crash, I meant from its current state of ridiculous prices. It can't be sustained because even the 1% of prospects who become actual stars won't warrant the crazy prices that speculators are paying. Everyone's gambling for Trout prices.
    Set builder, autograph hunter and fan of the Texas Rangers & '50s-'60s Yankees

  12. #27
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    Case in point. To me this guy is a FLASH IN THE PAN.
    This is a $100 card at most.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-BOWMAN...wAAOSwls5Y6KMo

    In 5 years 25 bucks. Maybe.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-BOWMAN...AAAOSwCU1YyH-8

  13. #28
    Junior Member forgerelli's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notjomommasclint View Post
    whomever you pull is clearly worth more than auction value because.. well just ****ing because.
    So f**king true. I will over pay for a Mariano I want but some of these people go through some insane mental gymnastics to convince themselves their card is worth 3-4 times the going rate. Some recent favorites:

    It's a dynasty card which is the most popular set Topps has ever put out!
    It's a patch from a letter on the front of the jersey which is way more valuable than a patch from the back. (Yankees patches are almost all 1 color).
    This is a super nice auto and worth more than his other autos. (When's the last time Mariano did a bad auto?)
    This is a Panini card, Mariano signs more for Topps (He doesn't) so it's rarer....

    Scott F
    Mariano Rivera Super Collector. Always buying rare Mo's - PSA's, Auto's, Patches, Printing Plates, or any other rare Mo's. I PAY MORE THAN ANYONE FOR MARIANO'S I NEED.

  14. #29
    Senior Member AnthonyCorona's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nosterbor View Post
    Case in point. To me this guy is a FLASH IN THE PAN.
    This is a $100 card at most.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-BOWMAN...wAAOSwls5Y6KMo

    In 5 years 25 bucks. Maybe.
    https://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-BOWMAN...AAAOSwCU1YyH-8
    To be fair, that's just the asking price, a seller can list for 100K

    Sent from my LG-TP450 using Tapatalk
    Please note: Card collecting is my hobby, not my life. I don't take it that serious and like to keep it fun.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by tramers View Post
    still top 10 for my stadium sells
    I have a stack of Freeman's i've been saving up for no good reason to dump on ebay one day...Topps, Bowman & BChrome. If interested i'd be happy to pass them off to you rather than a stranger on ebay. Lmk...

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