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Thread: Prospecting panning out....

  1. #1
    Senior Member Super Mario's Avatar
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    Prospecting panning out....

    Okay, so a lot of us have been members of this community is some way since BMB and before.

    Prospecting has been a huge part of the hobby for as long as Iíve been paying attention to these message boards.

    Thousands and thousands of dollars have been spent on prospect cards by many collectors, since around 2005 when I really started paying attention to this, in hopes of huge returns in the future.

    My question is, itís 2018, how many of these investments have paid off so far? Have these invenstments been worth it? Are the 10ís of thousands of dollars that were paid on the Alex Gordonís, Mike Troutís, Bryce Harperís and many other actually paid out and made the investment worth it for the prospectors around here?

    Prospecting seems like a huge waste of money to me, and Iíll never understand it. Even if someone invested in Ichiro and Pujols in 2001, I still donít see anyway youíre making much of a profit if you held on to those cards until 2018.

    So please, explain to me exactly how this tactic is worth it in the grand scheme of things.

  2. #2
    Junior Member forgerelli's Avatar
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    From my observations the only guy that truly panned out is Mike Trout. It seems to me that most people that are prospecting are looking for the next Mike Trout. Problem is there's only one Mike Trout.

    I bought a PSA 10 2009 Bowman Chrome auto refractor Mike Trout last year for $6400. Last few sales I saw for that card were $18K+. So that "investment" paid off huge for me.

    Scott F
    Mariano Rivera Super Collector. Always buying rare Mo's - PSA's, Auto's, Patches, Printing Plates, or any other rare Mo's. I PAY MORE THAN ANYONE FOR MARIANO'S I NEED.

  3. #3
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    It's not about whether or not the prospect becomes a superstar or a bust, for a prospector who is in it for the money it's all about knowing when to buy and sell.

    It's generally only a waste of money if you hold onto a prospect past their rookie season because that's when the insane unsustainable prices almost always drop WAY down. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Kershaw, etc. are the exception to the rule. Now obviously if you held onto those superstars beyond their rookie season then it wasn't a waste of money but you're taking a huge risk doing so.

    People made loads of money from failed prospects like Matt LaPorta, etc. if they bought before the spike in prices and sold right after it.

    Me personally, I almost always unload my prospects before they get the call to the majors because I play it safe and like to take the guaranteed profit. The potential reward is lower but so is the risk.

    I'm actually surprised more people don't realize this in regards to prospecting. Honestly, many of us don't care if they actually pan out to become superstars at the major league level unless we are still holding their cards. I know a lot of people look down on us because they perceive us to only care about the money and sure, for some of us it is but for me prospecting has opened my eyes to a completely different aspect of my favorite sport, the minor leagues. I now have a subscription to milb.com and can enjoy watching games when my major league teams aren't playing and am much more informed about players before most people ever know, or ever will, hear about. This gives me a leg up when drafting minor league players for my various fantasy teams. The scouting, the progression of young draft picks, the international side of baseball, it's all very exciting to me. It's also nice being more informed with the farm systems of my two favorite teams.

    Sure, many of the minor league games I follow I simply do so because there are players in it that I'm invested in and I'd be lying if I were to say I didn't care about the money but with the majority of the money I earn from prospecting, I put it right back into more prospects so I can continue prospecting without having to spend money out of my own pocket. I mean honestly, it's not like you can live off the little money you make from prospecting. It's all just very exciting...
    Last edited by death2redemptions; 07-11-2018 at 06:10 PM.
    Look, I'm gonna be honest with you. I really need a job. And I will take any position, as long as it doesn't involve having sex with old ladies for money or bear traps. Those are my two bugaboos. While mulling over my resume feel free to check out my baseball card collection, it's small and simple, kinda like me - >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff


  4. #4
    Senior Member death2redemptions's Avatar
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    Here's a quick example here with my most recent endeavor, Juan Soto. His BC auto was released in 2016 and up until the minor league season began this year you could find his base autos lingering around $50....then he began to have his breakout season in the minors and prices reached $200+ before he was actually called up. By this point I sold off a few of his base autos but held onto a refractor auto & BGS 9.5/10 just in case. Like I said, I generally don't do this unless I REALLY believe that a player will come out hot after his call up. He began hitting a lot of home runs and sold them once base autos were hitting the $250-300 range. I believe they have continued to go up but am not positive because I no longer follow his prices. If he wins the ROY award with a bunch of home runs they could end up reaching $500-$800 by the time the season ends. In all likelihood that would be his peak and unless he becomes the next Trout, Harper, Judge, etc. in a few years his prices will probably plummet to $50-$100 (if he's still playing at an All-Star, but not MVP, level) or lower if he becomes just an above average player.

    Then you will hear people saying, what a waste of money! I can't believe idiots spent $500+ on his cards! But here's the thing, with the exception of some really big risk takers, it's almost never the prospectors who were spending $500+ on his autos, it's the collectors who buy into the hype. Fans of the player or excited fans of the team they play for. Most experienced prospectors know that's their peak and that it would be a very risky investment.
    Look, I'm gonna be honest with you. I really need a job. And I will take any position, as long as it doesn't involve having sex with old ladies for money or bear traps. Those are my two bugaboos. While mulling over my resume feel free to check out my baseball card collection, it's small and simple, kinda like me - >>>>> http://s822.photobucket.com/user/JDf...ds%20n%20stuff


  5. #5
    Senior Member AnthonyCorona's Avatar
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    D2R is 100% on target (feels awful to say) I buy prospects with zero concern if they're a bust or a big superstar, I sell before that's known. I collect some prospects I've met and liked, if they pan out I'd sell but if not I'm cool with that. There's plenty of guys who aren't big names I've made some decent money on, Domingo German made me a nice profit a month or so ago, Freddy Peralta too. I seriously follow minor leagues more than the majors now days

    Sent from my LG-TP450 using Tapatalk
    Please note: Card collecting is my hobby, not my life. I don't take it that serious and like to keep it fun.

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