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The "Who are your not-too-early Award Winners prediction" discussion thread

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death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
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The Carolina on the Southern side
Okay guys, we did something like this last year and considering the fact there is only a week left of baseball, I don't think it would be too early to make our predictions. I suppose some players could have a really hot or cold final week that could shake things up but you could just assume the season is over if you'd like. I'm going to post my top 3 predictions for each major award but you can go ahead and just post your top pick if you'd like. I'm going to make my predictions based on who I think deserves it, not what I think the voters will pick but you can do it the other way around if you were ever so inclined.

NL MVP
1. Christian Yelich
2. Matt Carpenter
3. Javier Baez or Freddie Freeman

He leads the league in batting average, slugging% & OPS, he's 2nd in runs scored & he put together a 20/20 season with 32 HR & 21 SB so while Carpenter may lead the league in home runs and is right behind Yelich in runs scored I perceive Yelich to be the more complete player. Both are still deserving. After those two players it's just a crap shoot of players like Baez, Arenado (his splits were too extreme for me to consider him the MVP), Freeman & Goldschmidt (if he were on a contending team he'd get more consideration).

AL MVP
1. Mookie Betts
2. Mike Trout
3. J.D. Martinez

This was a tough one because both Trout & Mookie put up such phenomenal numbers this season that you'd hate to have to put one in 2nd place. In all likelihood Trout will finish with his 3rd 10+ bWAR season (currently 9.9) while Mookie leads all of baseball with a 10.7 bWAR & is just one stolen base shy of a 30/30 season. The last time there has ever been two players with a 10 bWAR in the same season was over 15 years (2002 - Barry Bonds/Randy Johnson) back in the steroid-era where numbers were inflated. So again, very tough choice. However, the reason I went with Mookie is sort of obvious....he's on a contending team.

NL Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Aaron Nola

Anyone who knows me knows that I don't give a crap about wins & losses. To me they are meaningless stats & while I understand some voters still believe in them I think what Jacob deGrom has done is too incredible to discredit him simply because of his 9-9 record. He leads the league in the three most important (IMO) categories: ERA, FIP & *fWAR while second in WHIP, innings pitched & strikeouts. You may have noticed I used fWAR versus bWAR. The reason for this is because fWAR is FIP based, not ERA based and more telling of a pitchers true talent level while measuring it with as little luck as possible. ERA in itself is a luck-based stat (sequencing). This is not to say FIP is the perfect stat because it's not and I still think ERA is an important stat but I'm getting off topic here so I'll shut up. Scherzer and Nola were both worthy follow-ups but I ultimately went with Scherzer due to his insane strikeout numbers & leading the league in WHIP, innings pitched & wins (although wins played no role in my decision)

AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Blake Snell
3. Gerrit Cole or Corey Kluber

Okay, I know many will disagree with my pick of JV over Snell and not just because of those meaningless win totals of his but also because of that shinning sub-2 ERA. The only drawback of Snell is that he's only put up 175 IP this season and only once has an AL pitcher ever won the Cy Young award with less than 200 IP. Essentially Verlander has thrown 38 IP more than Snell which is relatively significant. While Snell has that sizeable lead in ERA over Verlander, advanced metrics go in Verlander's favor, as he beats him in FIP, xFIP & more importantly, SIERA in which he leads all of baseball in. Among qualifying pitchers, Verlander leads the league in fWAR (6.4) & while getting back on topic with traditional stats, he also leads the league in strikeouts (280) & WHIP (0.91). Regardless, I still think Snell had a spectacular (and unexpected) 2018 season and you really couldn't go wrong with him winning it either. You may notice Chris Sale missing who put up some eye-popping numbers, however he doesn't have the innings pitched to qualify as a league leader in any of them & I simply couldn't justify giving the Cy Young award to a starter with 150 something IP. Trevor Bauer was another name left out due to similar reasons.

NL ROY
1. Ronald Acuna
2. Juan Soto
3. Walker Buehler

It's been an insane ride following the Acuna vs. Soto race and I think in the end Acuna gets the edge due to his speed/power combo of 26 HR & 15 SB (leads Soto in both stats) while breaking a lot of rookie & under 21 season records along the way. The two rookies have similar batting average, OPS & runs scored stats with almost identical number of at-bats.

AL ROY
1a. Shoehei Ohtani
1b. Miguel Andujar
3. Gleyber Torres

Honestly, I'm a little torn between Ohtani & Andujar although just very recently I've been starting to lean towards Ohtani so while both are listed as #1...I put Ohtani's name first ;)

I left out Manager of the Year award because honestly, it's just not something I care about because it's so hard to quantify the value of a manager and what they've really done for a team. You'll generally notice that when a team who was not expected to contend, ends up contending the manager of that team wins the award 9 out of 10 times. But was the manager really the reason for this? I think they may have played a very small role but it's more due to the players. Just my opinion. Either way, feel free to post your MOY nominations if you feel like it.
 
Jul 29, 2017
27
0
Nice write up and very enjoyable read.

I strongly believe this year we will have a co-rookie of the year,
And possibly a co-cy young in the National League.
Probably not going to be widely popular but both awards
have two deserving players this year.
In the past there has been co winners before.
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,364
171
I'll go with:

AL ROY - Ohtani
NL ROY - Acuna
AL CY - Verlander
NL CY - deGrom
AL MVP - Betts
NL MVP - Yelich
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
I'll go with:

AL ROY - Ohtani
NL ROY - Acuna
AL CY - Verlander
NL CY - deGrom
AL MVP - Betts
NL MVP - Yelich

Sounds familiar.

You ever sell that Acuna? Pick up any autograph cards of Scherzer/Verlander/award winners/key players recently?

A couple weeks ago I met up with a couple who found out they were related to me by doing one of those DNA things and when they found out I sold (and collected) baseball cards on e-bay they told me they had a small box of trading cards and said that they would ship them over to me. I was expecting it to be your typical box of junk 90's cards but turns out that it was all vintage, mostly from 1968-1972 Topps. They even had vintage football cards from the same years which I know little about. When I found out I insisted I'd send them any earnings I'd get on e-bay if I decided to sell but they said they wanted nothing in return. It's not like this was a treasure trove is super valuable cards or anything but there was a 1969 Topps Mickey Mantle , some of the original Topps Deckle cards along with other oddball inserts (fold out posters, booklets from either 1969, 1970 or 1971 Topps) from that time period. Plus some vintage Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Pete Rose, Al Kaline and more. It was really nice of them, especially considering the fact I literally just met them.

Nice write up and very enjoyable read.

I strongly believe this year we will have a co-rookie of the year,
And possibly a co-cy young in the National League.
Probably not going to be widely popular but both awards
have two deserving players this year.
In the past there has been co winners before.

Thanks HickoryHorn!

You may be onto something with the possibility of an NL co-cy young this year. Max Scherzer just notched his first 300 strikeout (7th straight season with 200+ K, 5th straight season with 250+) which is always a big deal, even in this day and age where batters are striking out like crazy because despite that, pitchers generally never throw more than 200-220 IP in a season and if you're one of those few frontline starters who put up that type of mileage, you've gotta average roughly 12-13 strikeouts per 9 in order to reach 300k. To top that off, he leads the league in wins too (you know my feelings regarding wins) so the old school voters will be very tempted to give him first place votes. Mad Max is an insanely great pitcher who looks bound for the HOF and I'm always pulling for the guy, as he's one of my favorite pitchers but regardless of all this I'm finding it very difficult not to go with deGrom. Obviously his ERA is absolutely stellar but his peripherals blow my mind too. His 2.03 FIP leads all of baseball while he's 2nd only to Patrick Corbin in xFIP & he doesn't have an extreme BABIP that would suggest any level of luck/defense involved.

But that's not to say I wouldn't mind seeing a Scherzer/deGrom co-Cy Young this year (although it's quiet difficult for two players to end up with the same vote totals)
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,364
171
Sounds familiar.

You ever sell that Acuna? Pick up any autograph cards of Scherzer/Verlander/award winners/key players recently?

A couple weeks ago I met up with a couple who found out they were related to me by doing one of those DNA things and when they found out I sold (and collected) baseball cards on e-bay they told me they had a small box of trading cards and said that they would ship them over to me. I was expecting it to be your typical box of junk 90's cards but turns out that it was all vintage, mostly from 1968-1972 Topps. They even had vintage football cards from the same years which I know little about. When I found out I insisted I'd send them any earnings I'd get on e-bay if I decided to sell but they said they wanted nothing in return. It's not like this was a treasure trove is super valuable cards or anything but there was a 1969 Topps Mickey Mantle , some of the original Topps Deckle cards along with other oddball inserts (fold out posters, booklets from either 1969, 1970 or 1971 Topps) from that time period. Plus some vintage Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Pete Rose, Al Kaline and more. It was really nice of them, especially considering the fact I literally just met them.

Too funny, I didn't realize I made the same picks as you.

No, I have not sold or graded the Acuna in my avatar and I'm not in a rush to do so though I'm sure I will at some point. I have a variety of RC's and autos of most of the candidates but none of Snell, which I intended on doing early this season but didn't, and nothing of Yelich either. What about you, what are you holding?
 

Mighty Bombjack

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
6,115
12
I like the picks but want to make one minor change:

NL Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Kyle Freeland

Everyone is so quick to discount Rockies hitters because of Coors Field. The first thing done when Arenado came up in MVP discussion (I use the past tense here - he has fallen off in the last month) is the presentation of home/away splits. Why not build up the pitchers? Anyone taken a peek at Freeland's splits?

I still think Ubaldo got hosed in 2010!

Sorry. Carry on...
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,364
171
I like the picks but want to make one minor change:

NL Cy Young

3. Kyle Freeland

Everyone is so quick to discount Rockies hitters because of Coors Field. The first thing done when Arenado came up in MVP discussion (I use the past tense here - he has fallen off in the last month) is the presentation of home/away splits. Why not build up the pitchers? Anyone taken a peek at Freeland's splits?

Agreed, and his stuff is still so cheap.
 

death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
I like the picks but want to make one minor change:

NL Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Kyle Freeland

Everyone is so quick to discount Rockies hitters because of Coors Field. The first thing done when Arenado came up in MVP discussion (I use the past tense here - he has fallen off in the last month) is the presentation of home/away splits. Why not build up the pitchers? Anyone taken a peek at Freeland's splits?

I still think Ubaldo got hosed in 2010!

Sorry. Carry on...

That's certainly a good call and the argument over splits at Coors Field for hitters also holds water for the pitching and Freeland definitely deserves credit. I'd still go with Nola due to the better walk/strikeout numbers & significantly lower FIP. Personally I'm a sucker for the 200+ IP/200+ SO/Sub 3 ERA & FIP/4+ k per bb type pitchers and Nola achieved that this season. I do believe that Kyle Freeland is a top 5 Cy Young candidate and even though I'd go with Nola over him at 3rd, I wouldn't argue with anyone who thought otherwise.
 

Gojomonster

New member
Sep 24, 2018
1
0
AL ROY: I'm super torn between Ohtani and Andujar. I supported Ohtani from the beginning when others bashed but Andujar has really come into his own (considering everyone was Torres crazy for a minute). Either way both have been fun to watch so its a win-win situation for whoever wins.
 

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