Disclaimer: Links on this page pointing to Amazon, eBay and other sites may include affiliate code. If you click them and make a purchase, we may earn a small commission.
Patrick Weigel added. His first call.
[MENTION=12878]death2redemptions[/MENTION] [MENTION=1720]cgilmo[/MENTION]
If Tatis goes on a tear and got 30/25 while keeping the average over .320 I think it'll be a closer race than people think, even if Alonso does hit 40+.
I know it's too early to get an idea of what Tatis Jr's median BABIP will look like on an annual basis but his current .431 BABIP is an impossibility to sustain for the remainder of the season (or at all, as nobody can sustain a BABIP over .400) so his avg will most assuredly take a dive at some point this season when his luck let's up. Factor in his strikeout rate, which has pretty much been 1 per every 3 at-bats (30.6% per plate appearance) and I find it difficult that he'll be able to maintain a .300+ avg this year. I do however find it possible that he could put up a 30/25 season (I was thinking more along the lines of a 25/25 season but 15 home runs in 62 games does put him on pace for 30 so I find it believable).
But sure, I'd agree that if he were able to put up 30+ home runs, 25+ stolen bases and simply an average over .300 that he'd make the race very, very close. I'd personally find him to be way more deserving than a first baseman four years older than him who hits 40+ home runs. In fact, I *almost* already do...but I don't believe the voters do, at least not according to mlb.com's latest ROY ballot (not that it means anything).
And just in general I believe you're right, this race may end up being closer than I first assumed. I think Alonso and Tatis will be battling it out for 1st while Soroka tries to defend 3rd place from rookies like Paddack.