Verlander gets win #24

Randy Shields · Sep 19, 2011

braden said:
You know, it's possible to be very, very good as well as lucky. In fact, I'd argue that truly great seasons require a good deal of luck. None of that is a knock on the pitcher himself. It's weird that you seem to think it is.

Verlander has been the best pitcher in the AL this year. I don't think he's miles ahead of Sabathia, especially when you account for strength of opponent etc but he has most definitely been the best. But it's also true, some of Verlander's rate stats have given him a fair amount of good luck. Not nearly enough to say he's having a fluky season- and nobody has even hinted at that- but it has contributed. And that, of course, is fine.

I don't disagree at all that there is always some luck involved with a 24 win season no matter who's name is on the back of the jersey.

My response here goes back to the Verlander Sick!! thread where RL24 first issued his sarcastic "Luckiest season ever" post and follow-up. That's all.

RL24 · Sep 19, 2011

Thank you braden, I thanked your post.

Randy Shields, whatever you do don't google "Verlander lucky season" because you'll find out that braden and I aren't the only ones who understand how much luck it takes to have an amazing season like Verlander is having. There was an article about it in Sports Illustrated, so really almost everybody realizes it.

There is a lot of luck involved in the game of baseball. Fielders are going to make incredible plays, and also bad plays. Both will happen to all pitchers. The lucky pitcher gets the bad play with 2 outs and nobody on. The lucky pitcher gets the incredible play when there is one out and runners on the corners, and the DP ends the inning. The stars align differently for the unlucky pitcher. His guys make that incredible play when there 2 outs and nobody on, and juuuuust miss that shot up the middle that could have been an inning ending DP. All pitchers are going to pitch great games and allow only 1 run in 9 innings, and they will also have games where they give up 4 runs in 6 innings. The lucky pitcher's team scores 5 runs when he allows 4, and he gets the win. The lucky pitcher's team manages to squeeze out 2 runs when he allows 1. The unlucky pitcher gets the L when his team loses 1-0. The unlucky pitcher leaves the game in the 8th with a 4-0 lead, and doesn't get the W. The lucky pitcher leaves in the 6th with a 1 run lead and does get the W. Now of course you're thinking "but W-L doesn't matter." It applies to whip as well. For the unlucky pitcher, that close call at first that should have gone his way doesn't. Strike 3 gets called ball 4. The grounder to 3rd produces a hit because your fielder doesn't have a cannon. Your whip goes up. If you're real unlucky, these things don't happen with 2 outs and nobody on, so your ERA goes up.

You see it a lot with batters too. They are in a slump, but they are hitting the ball well, it's just that it always seems to be right at somebody. Have you ever seen somebody hit what appears to be a no doubt HR only to have the wind knock it down and turn it into a really long out? That's unlucky. Especially because the wind could die down and the next guy could hit a similar shot, only weaker, and it gets over the fence.

Baseball. :grouphug: Luck.

Verlander is a great pitcher. He should win the Cy Young. Maybe even the MVP. AND he has had a lot of luck this season. Even throwing a no hitter takes a bunch of luck.

scotty21690 · Sep 19, 2011

RL24 said:
Even throwing a no hitter takes a bunch of luck.

Luck? What luck?
Signed,
Mark Buehrle

Randy Shields · Sep 19, 2011

RL24 said:
Thank you braden, I thanked your post.

Randy Shields, whatever you do don't google "Verlander lucky season" because you'll find out that braden and I aren't the only ones who understand how much luck it takes to have an amazing season like Verlander is having. There was an article about it in Sports Illustrated, so really almost everybody realizes it.

There is a lot of luck involved in the game of baseball. Fielders are going to make incredible plays, and also bad plays. Both will happen to all pitchers. The lucky pitcher gets the bad play with 2 outs and nobody on. The lucky pitcher gets the incredible play when there is one out and runners on the corners, and the DP ends the inning. The stars align differently for the unlucky pitcher. His guys make that incredible play when there 2 outs and nobody on, and juuuuust miss that shot up the middle that could have been an inning ending DP. All pitchers are going to pitch great games and allow only 1 run in 9 innings, and they will also have games where they give up 4 runs in 6 innings. The lucky pitcher's team scores 5 runs when he allows 4, and he gets the win. The lucky pitcher's team manages to squeeze out 2 runs when he allows 1. The unlucky pitcher gets the L when his team loses 1-0. The unlucky pitcher leaves the game in the 8th with a 4-0 lead, and doesn't get the W. The lucky pitcher leaves in the 6th with a 1 run lead and does get the W. Now of course you're thinking "but W-L doesn't matter." It applies to whip as well. For the unlucky pitcher, that close call at first that should have gone his way doesn't. Strike 3 gets called ball 4. The grounder to 3rd produces a hit because your fielder doesn't have a cannon. Your whip goes up. If you're real unlucky, these things don't happen with 2 outs and nobody on, so your ERA goes up.

You see it a lot with batters too. They are in a slump, but they are hitting the ball well, it's just that it always seems to be right at somebody. Have you ever seen somebody hit what appears to be a no doubt HR only to have the wind knock it down and turn it into a really long out? That's unlucky. Especially because the wind could die down and the next guy could hit a similar shot, only weaker, and it gets over the fence.

Baseball. :grouphug: Luck.

Verlander is a great pitcher. He should win the Cy Young. Maybe even the MVP. AND he has had a lot of luck this season. Even throwing a no hitter takes a bunch of luck.

I understand the game. I've followed America's favorite pastime for over 40 years now. I also understand the luck involved with every situation and aspect of the game.

I think over the course of a season, which is just about over, the luck and the misfortune tend to equal out though. Any pitcher could or should have won or lost more games due to a variety of circumstances. That's a given. There ends up being a lot of "If's" as well but that happens in all sports and not just baseball. Luck is part of sports. Luck is part of life.

But in a post where Verlander is being praised for his pitching and you start your post with "He has had the luckiest season ever" that's just a bit too much of a dramatic stretch I think. Maybe "He's had a lot of luck this season" might have been more appropriate.

Anyhoo, I don't think he's had any more luck than previous 20+ game winners and I just wanted to see credit given where credit is due and not chunk it all up to luck which seemed to be what you were initially doing.

Verlander -> :grouphug:

Now hopefully he can get some luck and win that 25th game of the season in what should be his last game of the regular season against the O's.........

All The Hype · Sep 19, 2011

Verlander has been by far and away the best pitcher in baseball this year. The only times he's been what I would call 'lucky' are the three starts during his streak of wins that he gave up 4 runs and still got a win. 4 Runs in 6-8 innings is not a bad start, but I consider a win in a non-quality start somewhat lucky...even though it's only 4 runs which isn't bad.

And speaking of quality starts, Verlander has 28 of them this season.

If you want to say luck is a huge factor with his season, I'll laugh in your face. Sure, luck is part of the game for any pitcher and any player; but the reason he's leading every single Triple Crown pitching stat and also WHIP is not because he's lucky, it's because he's flat-out owning hitters this year and making it near impossible for them to make solid contact.

markakis8 · Sep 21, 2011

Well this will help Verlander get a massive push towards the MVP:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/ ... -mvp-award

The little Sportsnation poll attached to the article...I was the 3,128th person to vote and an overwhelming 79% of the nation as voted for Verlander for MVP....

joey12508 · Sep 21, 2011

jmo but verlander gets the cy young not mvp. ron guidry in 1978 was NYY 25-3, 1.74, 248 SO . mvp was given to jim rice,
think it will be a everyday player.

joey12508 · Sep 21, 2011

RL24 said:
Thank you braden, I thanked your post.

Randy Shields, whatever you do don't google "Verlander lucky season" because you'll find out that braden and I aren't the only ones who understand how much luck it takes to have an amazing season like Verlander is having. There was an article about it in Sports Illustrated, so really almost everybody realizes it.

There is a lot of luck involved in the game of baseball. Fielders are going to make incredible plays, and also bad plays. Both will happen to all pitchers. The lucky pitcher gets the bad play with 2 outs and nobody on. The lucky pitcher gets the incredible play when there is one out and runners on the corners, and the DP ends the inning. The stars align differently for the unlucky pitcher. His guys make that incredible play when there 2 outs and nobody on, and juuuuust miss that shot up the middle that could have been an inning ending DP. All pitchers are going to pitch great games and allow only 1 run in 9 innings, and they will also have games where they give up 4 runs in 6 innings. The lucky pitcher's team scores 5 runs when he allows 4, and he gets the win. The lucky pitcher's team manages to squeeze out 2 runs when he allows 1. The unlucky pitcher gets the L when his team loses 1-0. The unlucky pitcher leaves the game in the 8th with a 4-0 lead, and doesn't get the W. The lucky pitcher leaves in the 6th with a 1 run lead and does get the W. Now of course you're thinking "but W-L doesn't matter." It applies to whip as well. For the unlucky pitcher, that close call at first that should have gone his way doesn't. Strike 3 gets called ball 4. The grounder to 3rd produces a hit because your fielder doesn't have a cannon. Your whip goes up. If you're real unlucky, these things don't happen with 2 outs and nobody on, so your ERA goes up.

You see it a lot with batters too. They are in a slump, but they are hitting the ball well, it's just that it always seems to be right at somebody. Have you ever seen somebody hit what appears to be a no doubt HR only to have the wind knock it down and turn it into a really long out? That's unlucky. Especially because the wind could die down and the next guy could hit a similar shot, only weaker, and it gets over the fence.

Baseball. :grouphug: Luck.

Verlander is a great pitcher. He should win the Cy Young. Maybe even the MVP. AND he has had a lot of luck this season. Even throwing a no hitter takes a bunch of luck.

Luck is the residue of design.
Branch Rickey,

George_Calfas · Sep 21, 2011

joey12508 said:
jmo but verlander gets the cy young not mvp. ron guidry in 1978 was NYY 25-3, 1.74, 248 SO . mvp was given to jim rice,
think it will be a everyday player.

Fact is both Rice and Guidry were deserving. Rice 20 First place votes and Guidry 8. Some will say that w/o Rice Boston would have NEVER ended up in a regular season tie with the Yankees......however Guidry did win 25 of the Yankees 99 regular season games.

2011 Does not have a Jim Rice daily player. Verlander will face as many as daily player will have Plate Appearance, a stat rarely looked upon.

Verlander wins the MVP.

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Verlander gets win #24

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