Suggestions For Gilmo's Hot List

We have a late contender. Assuming Gilmo hasn't completed it yet.

http://www.ebay.com/csc/i.html?_nkw=mat ... 86.c0.m283

Verlander stuff continues to go waaaaaaaaaay higher than i thought it would.

Here is a suggestion to improve the hot list in general:

I think there should be more of an emphasis put on volume of sales for a particular card over a given week rather than simply finding the largest percentage increase single sale and calling that card hot based on that one sample. Just to add legitimacy to the list, I don't think it makes since to put some random Joe Schmo prosect on a hot list because his BC auto was selling for $5 (essentially no demand in the grand scheme of things), but is now suddenly selling for $15 (okay, nice percentage increase, but that's still nothing), when you have other hobby super stars who have a wider audience of collectors/prospectors/buyers who are pumping several thousand dollars per week into their stuff. I mean really, if you go to a card show, people aren't going to be asking for Joe Schmo's BC Auto, they are going to be looking for Harper/Stras/the new hot product.

For the most part, these lists' are good, but I just think there needs to be more of a balance between low end crap that you couldn't give away that you now can that ends up on a hot list, verse stuff that people everywhere are actually demanding and paying top dollar for that doesn't hit the list. That's all.

agree

bballcardkid said:

Here is a suggestion to improve the hot list in general:

I think there should be more of an emphasis put on volume of sales for a particular card over a given week rather than simply finding the largest percentage increase single sale and calling that card hot based on that one sample. Just to add legitimacy to the list, I don't think it makes since to put some random Joe Schmo prosect on a hot list because his BC auto was selling for $5 (essentially no demand in the grand scheme of things), but is now suddenly selling for $15 (okay, nice percentage increase, but that's still nothing), when you have other hobby super stars who have a wider audience of collectors/prospectors/buyers who are pumping several thousand dollars per week into their stuff. I mean really, if you go to a card show, people aren't going to be asking for Joe Schmo's BC Auto, they are going to be looking for Harper/Stras/the new hot product.

For the most part, these lists' are good, but I just think there needs to be more of a balance between low end crap that you couldn't give away that you now can that ends up on a hot list, verse stuff that people everywhere are actually demanding and paying top dollar for that doesn't hit the list. That's all.

Click to expand...

Thing we know harper/stras/ etc is hot

But if Beau Mills goes from $1 to $15 thats something most people dont know

ljw29 said:

bballcardkid said:

Here is a suggestion to improve the hot list in general:

I think there should be more of an emphasis put on volume of sales for a particular card over a given week rather than simply finding the largest percentage increase single sale and calling that card hot based on that one sample. Just to add legitimacy to the list, I don't think it makes since to put some random Joe Schmo prosect on a hot list because his BC auto was selling for $5 (essentially no demand in the grand scheme of things), but is now suddenly selling for $15 (okay, nice percentage increase, but that's still nothing), when you have other hobby super stars who have a wider audience of collectors/prospectors/buyers who are pumping several thousand dollars per week into their stuff. I mean really, if you go to a card show, people aren't going to be asking for Joe Schmo's BC Auto, they are going to be looking for Harper/Stras/the new hot product.

For the most part, these lists' are good, but I just think there needs to be more of a balance between low end crap that you couldn't give away that you now can that ends up on a hot list, verse stuff that people everywhere are actually demanding and paying top dollar for that doesn't hit the list. That's all.

Click to expand...

Thing we know harper/stras/ etc is hot

But if Beau Mills goes from $1 to $15 thats something most people dont know

Click to expand...

That is true, but would Beau Mills be considered one of the 6-10-13, whatever the number is, hottest names in the hobby for that given week if there are only a handful of sales that actually occur, and more than likely they all had the same buyer because we all know one buyer can have a significant impact on a weeks worth of auctions. More than that, I still wouldn't even consider that increase "hot," if you are comparing it to stuff that you know is hotter like Stras/Harper/whatever. It seems like these low end examples need their own list or designation because as you say, it's something that most people don't know about. But honestly, names that hit the hot list should be cards/players that most people do know about because after all, it's hot and not under the radar. When viewed on a holistic scale across the hobby, the increase in these Beau Mills examples has little relevance or meaning.

it's too bad we aren't talking about performances


AJ Green and Andy Dalton would be on the list.

bballcardkid said:

ljw29 said:

bballcardkid said:

Here is a suggestion to improve the hot list in general:

I think there should be more of an emphasis put on volume of sales for a particular card over a given week rather than simply finding the largest percentage increase single sale and calling that card hot based on that one sample. Just to add legitimacy to the list, I don't think it makes since to put some random Joe Schmo prosect on a hot list because his BC auto was selling for $5 (essentially no demand in the grand scheme of things), but is now suddenly selling for $15 (okay, nice percentage increase, but that's still nothing), when you have other hobby super stars who have a wider audience of collectors/prospectors/buyers who are pumping several thousand dollars per week into their stuff. I mean really, if you go to a card show, people aren't going to be asking for Joe Schmo's BC Auto, they are going to be looking for Harper/Stras/the new hot product.

For the most part, these lists' are good, but I just think there needs to be more of a balance between low end crap that you couldn't give away that you now can that ends up on a hot list, verse stuff that people everywhere are actually demanding and paying top dollar for that doesn't hit the list. That's all.

Click to expand...

Thing we know harper/stras/ etc is hot

But if Beau Mills goes from $1 to $15 thats something most people dont know

Click to expand...

That is true, but would Beau Mills be considered one of the 6-10-13, whatever the number is, hottest names in the hobby for that given week if there are only a handful of sales that actually occur, and more than likely they all had the same buyer because we all know one buyer can have a significant impact on a weeks worth of auctions. More than that, I still wouldn't even consider that increase "hot," if you are comparing it to stuff that you know is hotter like Stras/Harper/whatever. It seems like these low end examples need their own list or designation because as you say, it's something that most people don't know about. But honestly, names that hit the hot list should be cards/players that most people do know about because after all, it's hot and not under the radar. When viewed on a holistic scale across the hobby, the increase in these Beau Mills examples has little relevance or meaning.

Click to expand...

I love the hot list just the way it is.The majority of us on this forum collect prospects and/or rookies (in Football, Basketball, & Hockey). I can only speak for myself, but I'm not all entirely informed on every single prospect that is doing / selling well. I love to see content of someone I missed or even someone who gets put on my with a hot list mention. The hot list is a temporary thing after all, and if I look at what a player did to get hot as a sign of things to come, I may choose to vest an interest in that player at some point. It also gives me a chance to dump a card or two of a hot player if I didn't notice their performance. I guess I like the lesser prospects on there because it reflects the overall demands of the community.

And it's not as if the list is only strewn with minor prospects who have a good week, especially now that the minor league season is done.

But more to your main point about the hot list being a result of 1-2 bidders: Perception is reality on eBay, and 1-2 sales is all that it takes. There is no mirage of a card selling for less than the ending price, especially if it's confirmed by multiple sales (and Phil / Chris do a great job of regognizing the anomalies I think). If a player or set is selling hot it, it just is. In most cases the limited number of sales thing is because the cards is in a limited quantity, or it's from an older set that isn't on eBay much to begin with.