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Ryan Howard lost his power?

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matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
Is it possible that at 33 years of age Howard has finally lost his power stroke?


Looking at this seasons numbers (71 games, 284 plate appearances is no small sample size), and comparing them to his productive seasons of 2006 - 2011, his HR total is way down and his doubles total is way up. Over the same 2006 -2011 span Howard averaged 27.8 doubles per season hitting over 30 only once (37 in 2009) and this year he already has 20, on pace to hit well over 40 two baggers on the season. also during that span he averaged just under 44 HR's per season and with only 10 this year in 71 games, he is on pace to see just north of 20, his lowest by FAR of any full season.

His BA is up above normal and his K numbers are in line with the 175+/- per season, so with all else being equal and seeing a big spike in doubles coupled with a huge drop off in HR's, are we seeing a glimpse of the 'new' Ryan Howard? A .280 hitter that will hit 22 - 25 HR's per season and drive in 80? Don't get me wrong, that is still respectable but far from the sheer awesome power and run production we were seeing since 2006 (aside from injury in 2012)...

And I understand he was only hitting in the low 30's for home runs in 2010 & 2011, but to dip to 20+/- while mashing doubles at a higher rate then ever before signifies dwindling power, no? I wonder just how far it will dwindle...? will he level off and maintain or is this the beginning of the end for him? Too bad really, a few more years of 'Howard-Like' production and I think we were looking a lock for the Hall...
 

shayscards79

New member
Aug 17, 2010
3,166
0
Chicago
Sure, it's possible, but it'll be interesting to see what happens in the second half and Howard loves hitting them in bunches. The most important thing is that he plays a whole season at this point, if he indeed hits say 25 HR and 40+ doubles over a full season, it'd make sense.
 

RogerMarisCollector61

Active member
Jan 26, 2010
740
26
He still limps around the basepaths on a daily basis, so its obvious his Achilles is still bothering him. If he gets healthy again I would expect the power to return. In the meantime, I'll take a 123 ops+ over last years' 90.
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
Sure, it's possible, but it'll be interesting to see what happens in the second half and Howard loves hitting them in bunches. The most important thing is that he plays a whole season at this point, if he indeed hits say 25 HR and 40+ doubles over a full season, it'd make sense.

Yeah, no doubt he can mash in bunches, but as I said, almost 300 plate appearances and half the season should have allowed for a few 'bunches' by now. But yes, the second half will be telling. And again, being a .280 hitter and a 25/80 guy is still very good, just not 'Howard Good' if you know what I mean. And mind you I am no Howard hater, I really love the guy and his power was just awe inspiring! However, dipping down to a mere mortal, a 280/25/80 guy to finish out his career (assuming he can even keep that pace for the next 6 or 7 years) is simply going to tarnish his efforts.

I really believe he is the type of hitter that will need 500 HR's to get a nod to the Hall and he still needs 190 to go. If he can only muster 22-25 per year, I just do not see him playing until he is 40+, especially at the rate of decline with regards to the HR he has displayed since 2010. The guys first full 4 seasons he averaged about 50 per year, and the next few he was only showing 30 or so power, now he is showing 20 or so power.... Putting it like that, it kinda makes me wonder what he may have been taking during the 2006-2009 seasons...?
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
He still limps around the basepaths on a daily basis, so its obvious his Achilles is still bothering him. If he gets healthy again I would expect the power to return. In the meantime, I'll take a 123 ops+ over last years' 90.

I watch him play often and I really do not see it...

Sure he looks to have lost a step but I think it is more so due to age and declining athleticism and not so much a 'limp' as you put it. Having said that, I believe he still may be suffering some psychological symptoms, perhaps not pushing himself as far physically as he could/should for fear of re-injury...?
 

RogerMarisCollector61

Active member
Jan 26, 2010
740
26
Yeah, no doubt he can mash in bunches, but as I said, almost 300 plate appearances and half the season should have allowed for a few 'bunches' by now. But yes, the second half will be telling. And again, being a .280 hitter and a 25/80 guy is still very good, just not 'Howard Good' if you know what I mean. And mind you I am no Howard hater, I really love the guy and his power was just awe inspiring! However, dipping down to a mere mortal, a 280/25/80 guy to finish out his career (assuming he can even keep that pace for the next 6 or 7 years) is simply going to tarnish his efforts.

I really believe he is the type of hitter that will need 500 HR's to get a nod to the Hall and he still needs 190 to go. If he can only muster 22-25 per year, I just do not see him playing until he is 40+, especially at the rate of decline with regards to the HR he has displayed since 2010. The guys first full 4 seasons he averaged about 50 per year, and the next few he was only showing 30 or so power, now he is showing 20 or so power.... Putting it like that, it kinda makes me wonder what he may have been taking during the 2006-2009 seasons...?

I would include 2005 in that stretch he was a monster for the half season he played. However, I am probably Ryan Howard's biggest fan, and I don't think he's deserving of entrance to the hall of fame. He could hit 30 home runs the next 6 years and end up with 500 and I would still think he's not worthy. If he kept up his 2005-2009 pace for another 4 years averaging around 50 homers/162 games then I would say he is deserving, but 30 home runs isn't great when you are limping around the basepaths and are a mediocre fielder at first base.
 

RogerMarisCollector61

Active member
Jan 26, 2010
740
26
I watch him play often and I really do not see it...

Sure he looks to have lost a step but I think it is more so due to age and declining athleticism and not so much a 'limp' as you put it. Having said that, I believe he still may be suffering some psychological symptoms, perhaps not pushing himself as far physically as he could/should for fear of re-injury...?

You don't see it? I watch him everyday and I watch the way he runs it reminds me of the way I used to run when I had achilles problems. It's telling in the way that he attempts to slow down, in that it takes twice as many steps to slow down. He even said in an interview a couple of days ago that it still hurts him every single day. He actually used to have decent speed a few years ago. He had very slow acceleration, but once he got going would actually run surprisingly fast for his size.
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
I would include 2005 in that stretch he was a monster for the half season he played. However, I am probably Ryan Howard's biggest fan, and I don't think he's deserving of entrance to the hall of fame. He could hit 30 home runs the next 6 years and end up with 500 and I would still think he's not worthy. If he kept up his 2005-2009 pace for another 4 years averaging around 50 homers/162 games then I would say he is deserving, but 30 home runs isn't great when you are limping around the basepaths and are a mediocre fielder at first base.

I am not far off from agreeing with this.

Yes, mashing 50 or so for almost a decade is historic, but even if he was hitting a .275/33/110 on average, give or take, for the remainder of his career, I believe his monster seasons coupled that kind of production could/would piece together a HOF career. But with just 4 great seasons, and even including the 2005 season, hitting a .280/25/80 from here on out will not cut it in my humble opinion, with regards to enshrinement.
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
You don't see it? I watch him everyday and I watch the way he runs it reminds me of the way I used to run when I had achilles problems. It's telling in the way that he attempts to slow down, in that it takes twice as many steps to slow down. He even said in an interview a couple of days ago that it still hurts him every single day. He actually used to have decent speed a few years ago. He had very slow acceleration, but once he got going would actually run surprisingly fast for his size.

Again, I watch him as often as possible and simply do not see a 'limp' but I do see the decline in speed and athleticism as mentioned earlier, however (as I also said) it may very well be psychological. I just do not think he is suffering from a physical ailment.
 

RogerMarisCollector61

Active member
Jan 26, 2010
740
26
Again, I watch him as often as possible and simply do not see a 'limp' but I do see the decline in speed and athleticism as mentioned earlier, however (as I also said) it may very well be psychological. I just do not think he is suffering from a physical ailment.

Limp was probably the wrong word, but i couldn't think of a short way of explaining how i can tell he is running weird. If you see the below article, he said he is in pain every day. I don't think he would say that if it was just normal baseball soreness, because everybody gets that. What's your favorite team/who's your favorite player man?

Phillies' 1B Ryan Howard 'In Pain Every Day' - Whiz Wit Sports
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
Limp was probably the wrong word, but i couldn't think of a short way of explaining how i can tell he is running weird. If you see the below article, he said he is in pain every day. I don't think he would say that if it was just normal baseball soreness, because everybody gets that. What's your favorite team/who's your favorite player man?

Phillies' 1B Ryan Howard 'In Pain Every Day' - Whiz Wit Sports

Interesting read, I did not hear that but was he specifically speaking about pain in his achilles? Or just overall pain of getting older, more tired, more worn...?

As far as favorite team(s), I use to be a Mets fan as a kid but I evolved in to a sports fan in whole, a fan of talent. This is why I love(d) Howard! He is most certainly in my top 10 favorite talents. Right now I also love to watch Lincecum, Posey, Trout, Pujols, Miggy, Harper, Cano, Harvey, and a handful of others that just offer that something special (above and beyond the normal ball player) to the game.
 

bongo870

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2009
3,574
485
Marlton NJ
Howard is a big guy. Not really built too strong. I can see being his size and shape he may be wearing down. He is hitting different now. Not so much crushing the ball but small bloopers or long ones for doubles. He is hitting well over 300 in the past month. Howard is ageing and I feel it is hurting him..
 

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